Chris Minns will be sworn in as the 47th Premier of New South Wales on Tuesday after decisively defeating Dominic Perrottet's Coalition. It was a thumping win for Labor on a two-party basis, especially given the disadvantage of optional preferencing, but it seems a difficult pendulum has seen Labor unexpectedly pull up just short of a majority. It's therefore time to reset this site's next-leader-to-go Not-A-Poll, which includes the Premiers, Chief Ministers, Prime Minister and federal Opposition Leader. Voting in the sidebar is open.
Perrottet was the fourth Premier in a twelve-year government and ruled for just under one and a half years. Expected to be an arch-conservative, he reinvented himself remarkably quickly. He governed and campaigned with great energy, and was quite popular except for a mediocre reading in the final Newspoll, but no New South Wales government lasts that long without its share of scandals. In the end the time factor, internal instability and probably a failure to deliver pay rises in the face of inflation cost him, as did his party's record on privatisation.
Perrottet was the overwhelming pick on this site as the next leader to depart with nearly 70% of the vote.
It will be interesting to see what voters make of the new round though I suspect plenty of readers will vote for Peter Dutton as the obvious baddie in the field alone.
If nobody is rolled, Fyles, Barr and Palaszczuk have elections coming up scheduled for late 2024, while the federal election and Tasmanian election would both fall in the first half of 2025 if those governments went full term. Dutton has a big by-election test next weekend and first-term opposition leaders don't always get to be around for more than two years, though he has no obvious leadership opponent at this stage. There are also a few leaders who have been there for a while and might potentially retire during this term.
I think Fyles is the most likely to be the first to lose government, but Barr may choose to go in advance of the election. He has been Chief Minister / Mayor for nearlly a decade and if he's planning on stepping dow , may want to give a successor plenty of time to establish themselves.
ReplyDeleteBarr seemed bored after 2016 and ready to give up, but then COVID gave him a second wind and his likely successor Megan Fitzharris quit in 2019. He seems more energised than ever. He confirmed he's running again and I believe it. I don't see Liberals making a big comeback in the ACT, nor Greens doing much better than holding their 6 (even if they pick up a swing).
ReplyDeleteAnything can happen in the NT election but my money is on Dutton, who seems to be the new Brendan Nelson.
I'll cast a vote after the Aston results are known...
ReplyDeleteOK, 7pm on Saturday in Brisbane (8pm in Aston) and I've seen enough results so I think I can lodge a vote for Dutts! But who will replace him? Sussssan of the many s's?
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