2023 New South Wales Postcount: Classic Seats And Kiama

Labor has won the election but has fallen short of a majority because the swing on prepolls was weaker than for booth votes.

Note: Ryde recount has a separate section below

SEATS APPARENTLY WON ALP 45 L-NP 36 GREEN 3 IND 9 

APPARENTLY CHANGING SEATS:

Coalition to Labor: Camden, East Hills, Heathcote,  Monaro, South Coast, Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone

Liberal to IND: Wakehurst, Wollondilly

(Link to Coalition vs IND seats thread)

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As at midnight Saturday I have ceased the live thread and switched to this first postcount thread which will deal with the Labor vs Coalition contests (plus Kiama) that will determine whether Labor has a majority and if so the size of it.  A separate thread will follow on the Coalition vs Independent contests in Pittwater, Willoughby and Wollondilly, another on the Legislative Council, and hopefully by the time I've done those the contest in Balmain will have quietly gone away.

As I start this thread nine classic seats and Kiama are in doubt but the Coalition isn't likely to be caught in Upper Hunter and Winston Hills.  So here we go with the other eight (I will add Upper Hunter and Winston Hills if they get closer):  Seats will be progressively added through the day as time permits. 

Seats will be updated over coming weeks (sparsely as I am very busy) and once I am no longer following a seat it will be moved to the bottom of the page.  

A general comment re prepoll and postal patterns - as of Monday 27th midday, the average swing to Labor in prepolls counted to 2PP was 1.6% below the swing in booth votes for the same seats, but the average swing in postals was 1.6% higher (and this could be an underestimate because early postals tend to be more conservative than late postals).  This may help the Liberals outperform projections, but not much.

Also regarding the current counts - they are not the final counts, and will be subject to data entry and a final count, which can in cases make hundreds of votes of difference even in the absence of obvious errors.  

Ryde Recount

April 12: Labor assistant state secretary George Simon has tweeted that there will be a recount for Ryde starting Saturday April 15.  I will add news as I can.  April 13: NSWEC has confirmed this.

April 15: Blink and you missed it; the recount was all done today.  The Liberals made a net gain of five from informal, Labor gained two and the Greens two.  On 2CP the Liberals gained six, Labor two and exhaust one.  Lane (Lib) has won Ryde by 54 votes.

Ryde (Liberal 8.9%)

Ryde was very much on my radar because in 2011 when Victor Dominello first won it it flipped from a Labor-leaning seat relative to the state average to a Coalition-leaning one, and I thought that without him there was a risk it could swing back.  Lyndal Howison (ALP) leads Jordan Lane (Liberal) 16676 to 16264 (50.6%) and this is projected to increase.  As with Oatley this is a nice neat seat with all 2PPs available and 57.9% counted.  Howison is getting the swings required in the booth votes and postals, but not in the Ryde EVC prepoll, however the "Ryde" booths had a slightly smaller swing than overall.  Prepolls were nothing special in 2019 and at the least at this stage I don't see anything to suggest the current lead would be overturned.

Monday 2:00 A very weak 3% swing in the big Eastwood EVC prepoll has put Labor back to a 50.1-49.9 lead and a 50.7% projection.  

Monday 5:00 A rare bright spot in prepolls for Labor with a 137 vote gain from Macquarie Park EVC.

Tuesday morning: The issue with this seat is that although 2000 postals have been counted there are still a very large number to come.  16.1% of Ryde voters applied for a postal, which is about 10000 voters.  Even assuming, say, 20% didn't vote postally, that's still about 6000 to come of which 4000 will make the 2PP count, and if they keep breaking 55-45 that's 400 votes.  But I suspect they won't, because late postals tend to weaken.  The key issue here is what the Epping prepoll does.  If it breaks relatively evenly Labor should still hang on.

Tuesday 11:30 Epping prepoll did nothing which helps Labor.

Thursday 1:40 Still to see the 2PP for these votes but a lacklustre performance by Labor on primaries for absent votes and enrolment votes and there is a big question now of whether their lead can stay large enough to hold off the postals.  As yet no new postals counted.  

Saturday: With Labor about 320 votes ahead on Antony Green's estimates we are waiting for a massive pile of postals (5279 to be counted today, though some will exhaust or be informal and not make the 2PP count).  Labor has not really been hitting the mark on absents so far so Labor will need some moderation in the postal flow today to stay competitive (if there is no moderation the Liberals will take a lead of maybe 180 which will probably be enough.)

1:15 The postal primaries have come through.  The gains are Lane (Lib) 2564 Howison (ALP) 1839 Greens 491 SAP 181 IMOP 80.  On previous preference flows this suggests Lane will gain about 420 and go about 100 ahead.

1:32 Lane in fact gained 467 and will be around 150 ahead and is now in a strong position to succeed Dominello.

Wednesday: Labor has gained on absents and I thought it's worth a close look at where we're at here.  From the check count, Howison (ALP) leads by 468 on booth votes and prepolls.  In the original count (not yet fully check counted), Lane gains 682 on postals.  In the original count Lane gains 177 on primaries from absents and declaration votes, but on a model of preference flow that accounts for the higher share of Green votes in the absents and declaration votes Howison gains 337 back on preferences, which puts the gap around 54.  Also I do not see anything suspicious in the unchecked postals preference distribution.  

Update: the break on absent preferences was slightly weaker than my model and I now project the current gap at 79 (most of the remaining declaration votes have not yet been check-counted).  There are also more postals to come.

Thursday: The remaining declaration votes have been counted and the gap is 93 ahead of the remaining postals.

Saturday: The live check count gap has come down to 39 votes but Antony Green has tweeted that the final c. 450 postals have ensured Lane wins the seat. Awaiting confirmation. The primary differences with the check count are Lib 199 ALP 153 Green 66 others 31 suggesting Labor would do well to break even after preferences. EDIT: Margin in check count is 50 votes.

---------seats no longer being covered --------------------------

Drummoyne (Liberal, 13.6%)

Drummoyne attracted a little bit of attention in the leadup as the sort of bolter seat that might fall if the swing was really on, based especially on the ICAC-enforced retirement of John Sidoti and controversy surrounding his replacement with his own staffer Stephanie Di Pasqua (who has been on leave since January while campaigning.)  With 47.1% counted Di Pasqua is ahead 51.8-48.2.  Abbotsford Public, Canada Bay, Concord and Strathfield North Public have no 2PP and Russel Lea Infants has no figures.  There is a 20.6% 2PP swing to Labor on postals! No prepolls have yet been seen.  Normally when Liberals are well ahead those leads tend to survive even if projected to be very close (PB has 50.5 as a projection, I think ABC's was higher before being switched off) but this is still a very incomplete count.  I have it as a likely Liberal retain for now.

1 am Tuesday: Di Pasqua up 51.6-48.4 and retains.

Holsworthy (Liberal 6.0%)

Holsworthy is a vacancy following the deselection of Melanie Gibbons (who after various misadventures ended up running as the token Liberal candidate for Kiama). Gibbons was defeated for preselection by Tina Ayyad but at the moment it looks like the loss of a two-term incumbent's personal vote could be a problem (assuming Gibbons had one).  

In the live count Ayyad leads Labor's Mick Maroney 11638 to 11272 but the live count does not include 2PPs for Menai Primary or Menai EVC while two small booths Liverpool Public and Bangor Scout Hall are missing completely.  In 2019 prepolls in Holsworthy favoured Labor and if they match the booth swing this, plus a higher swing to Labor so far in postals than in booth voting, should be enough to carry Labor to victory (Poll Bludger has 51-49).  Holsworthy has been heavily redistributed with an almost complete overturn of prepoll centre names so I would like to see more prepoll action to confirm the projection.  

Monday 3:45 In view of the prepoll action elsewhere I don't have any trust in this seat repeating its 2019 behaviour and have put it back to simply in doubt.

Monday 9:00 A large prepoll Wattle Grove is in on primaries and will do virtually nothing on 2PP, but Labor needs to be doing better than nothing at the moment so I think Ayyad might now be favourite here.

Tuesday 3:00 Labor has made a small gain in Casula prepoll but again insufficient.  There is also a report they will not gain enough in the other prepoll.

Tuesday 7:00 And indeed they haven't.  

Thursday 10:05 Labor is making some gains on absents but the gains are not enough. I don't think there is significant doubt about this seat anymore but will keep an eye on it in case anything changes.  

Saturday: Postals have pushed Ayyad out to 604 ahead and I believe that is the end of that one so have moved it to the bottom of the page.

Thursday 13th: Button pressed, Ayyad won by 331.

Goulburn (Liberal 3.1%)

Goulburn hasn't been won by Labor since the early 1960s, though that's partly because it didn't exist in the Bob Carr years.  Wendy Tuckerman was first elected in 2019 and sophomore effect has probably assisted her in keeping down the swing.

With 51.2% counted Labor's Michael Pilbrow trails 11255-11066 but both the ABC and Poll Bludger project him to win with 50.7% 2PP (edit: ABC projection now off).  2PP figures are missing for five ordinary booths including two that were quite strong for Labor.  One prepoll (Crookwell) has been counted.  Once the missing 2PPs are added I project them to knock Tuckerman's lead down to about fifty.  The swing in booth votes is 4.7% to Labor which is more than enough if extended to other forms of voting, but a significant issue here is the large "Goulburn EM Office" prepoll.  The on the day booths with "Goulburn" in their name have all swung to Liberals and if this also happens in the prepoll that could alone be enough to overturn the projections.  I think there's a long way to go in this one.  

Monday 3 pm:  Still waiting for the "Goulburn" prepoll which will be a big deal here but all the missing 2CPs are added and Tuckerman is currently ahead 12766-12683.  

Monday 4:30:  Said prepoll has arrived and replicated the booth swing to Liberals in that area and now Tuckerman is 306 ahead and should hold (in fact, projecting to increase).

Tuesday 5:15: Labor gained in the Yass prepoll but dropped back further in the Bowral one and it's 50.5 with absents, provisionals and more postals to come so I am assuming now that Tuckerman retains.

Thursday 13th: Button pressed, Tuckerman won by 1170.

Kiama (Liberal 12.0%, IND occupied)

In the election's most bizarre contest, former Liberal Gareth Ward was suspended from parliament while facing very serious sexual assault charges which he denies.  He decided to recontest as an independent and the Liberals were left in a quandary and ended up running more or less dead against him for the sake of having a candidate.  However with Liberal voters exhausting their votes, a large general swing to Labor and an incumbent who is obviously difficult to vote for, the ingredients are all there for a potential surprise win to Labor and at the moment this is a serious chance.  Labor's Katelin McInerney leads Ward 8486-7864.  Not yet added are 2CPs for Bomaderry and Illaroo Road or anything for Albion Park Public.  Also very few prepolls are in the count which is only at 41.3% counted.  Crucially there are no 2CPs for the large pile of postals counted, in which Ward has a 48.6-29.1% primary vote lead (postals were very strong for him in 2019 also).  Once the currently missing 2CPs are included I project Ward about 200 ahead.  However I expect Labor to beat Ward by several hundred votes in the Albion Park EVC which was a bad prepoll for Ward last time and it's doubtful the remaining prepolls and so on would break enough to him to overturn it.  The very low percentage counted suggests caution still required here but looking reasonably good for Labor.  

Monday 2:15 Albion Park EVC has indeed stretched Labor's lead which is now 52.1-47.9 (973 votes) with 53.8% counted.

Monday 4:30 Ward has now pegged the lead back to 51.1-48.9 after not doing quite as badly as expected in Albion Park EVC and then largely erasing the damage in the Kiama prepoll.  Now the Poll Bludger projection has Ward slightly ahead.  

Monday 11:00 I am now projecting that Gareth Ward retains.  He is only 100 behind after including the missing 2CPs for one booth and postals, and the Nowra prepoll is coming which was extremely strong for him last time.  He should gain at least 650 out of that, probably more.

Tuesday midday: Nowra prepoll as expected.  Gareth Ward will be returned.  Concerning the charges he is facing, some of them are serious enough that if convicted he could lose the seat, but only after either an appeal fails or he chooses not to appeal.  This would then result in a by-election.  Meanwhile he may well be re-suspended.

Thursday 13th: Button pressed, Ward won by 689.

Miranda (Liberal 14.4%)

When the swing is really on the election is given away by 7:30 and then you spend the rest of the night talking about seats on nobody's radar.  What on earth is Miranda in the sleepy old Shire doing in a postcount thread?  Well, it might have something to do with Eleni Petinos being sacked from the ministry in 2022 following bullying and office practices complaints (Petinos denies the allegations but also apologised if she had offended anyone).  In any case Petinos currently trails Labor's Simon Earle 10727 to 10877.  However we do not yet have 2PP counts for Frank Vickery Village, Kareela Public, Miranda North Public or Sylvania EVC and once these are added Petinos should be about 700 ahead.  Postals have not been included at all yet and at the moment it seems very likely Petinos will retain.

Monday 2:00 Postals have put Petinos ahead.

Tuesday 6:30: Petinos now up 51.1-48.9 and the Sylvania EVC prepoll is still not counted to 2PP so that would appear to be that for that one.  

Oatley (Liberal 6.8%)

Compared to some of the messy counts doing the rounds Oatley is a thing of beauty with 61.7% counted, every booth done to primary and 2PP and some prepolls and postals done as well.  Liberal incumbent Mark Coure has a 16179 to 15925 edge over Labor's Ash Ambihaipahar (Ash is short for Ashvini) but every vote type counted so far shows a swing above the target.  Poll Bludger is projecting 50.5 to Labor and an important point here could be absents.  Last election absents were about 8% worse for Coure than other votes and if that is still the case they alone could be worth a 400-vote reversal from Coure's current slim lead.  As with a number of seats where the margin has been messed around by the redistribution caution is advised until we see more prepolls, and because a narrow lead is projected for a candidate who's currently behind.

Monday 3:10 Coure has done very well in the Mortdale EVC prepoll, consistent with a general pattern of Labor not matching booth swings on prepoll, and is now projecting to stay ahead (he is 254 votes up at the moment but will be 900 or so ahead once Mortdale is added).  It now looks like Coure has a good chance to survive.

Monday 10:00 And with Coure 910 ahead and no signficant prepolls remaining I am now confident that Coure has retained.

Terrigal (Liberal 12.3%)

Terrigal?  What is this seat? I only know this seat exists because I've been there.  Actually I did see a bit of hopeful murmering on social media about this seat prior to the election but for whatever reasons it has delivered a monster swing that sees Sam Boughton (Labor) rather surprised to be leading two-term incumbent Adam Croch (Lib) by 736 votes (51.3% 2PP).  Boughton is a physiotherapist and surfer; this may be another example of ALP doctor power.  Thus far Boughton is hitting the swing required with 1.8% to spare in booth voting, and is a bit below the mark in the prepoll counted so far.  The Gosford EVC prepoll is not yet included and is likely to be helpful for Boughton.  Postals will be very unhelpful but if they are anywhere near the electorate swing then they will not get near erasing the current gap and so I concur with the Poll Bludger prediction that the gap will close a bit but not that much (51-49).  It looks very likely Labor has indeed won this seat.  

Monday midday: First postals were a little below the booth swing and have cut the margin to 594.

Monday 3:30 Crouch has actually taken a 40 vote lead off the two Terrigal prepolls but don't adjust your set yet.  If the other prepolls have the same swing then Boughton will gain in the Gosford prepoll and he will also gain heavily on absents and to some degree on provisionals, good for several hundred votes or so.  Pollbludger still projects 51-49; postals could make it closer than that.  

4:45 Crouch ahead by 87 now after unexpectedly winning the Gosford prepoll which had a far lower swing than the other prepolls.  Closer and closer and closer!

5:45 The poor swing in the Gosford prepoll was actually predictable as there was a Gosford booth that also didn't do much, while a second booth with Gosford in the name was actually well inside Terrigal.  The booths near Woy Woy had much larger swings but the connectivity of Terrigal is such that "near" is a term used with caution.  

10:35 I have had a go at my own projection as some of the PB ones (eg Oatley) appear to be clearly incorrect.  It seems the massive increase in postals could be the biggest issue here.  Terrigal had 11% of enrolment apply for a postal, after only about 3% voted this way in 2019.  So far postals have broken very strongly to the Liberals, and while they will weaken as the count goes on, the great increase in them is a problem for Labor, who will be hard pressed to remain where they are.

Tuesday 2:40 Woy Woy prepoll has slightly favoured Crouch who Antony Green reports to be tracking for about 200 ahead with it added.  That's probably not enough to cover absents and provisionals but the thousands of postals to come will render it irrelevant.  

Saturday: We are waiting for a large supply of postals today which is expected to greatly increase Crouch's projected lead and probably decide the seat in his favour.

Saturday midday: Massive postal flood to Crouch who defeats Labor by 1146 in today's postals; that will come back a bit on preferences but he will still lead by several hundred meaning that barring serious errors this one is over.