2022 Tasmanian Council Counts: General And Councils Other Than Hobart

Numbers noted here based in scrutuneering are unofficial. For official results see the TEC website.

Introduction

This is my general page for commentary on the 2022 Tasmanian council counts.  Specific comments on individual councils will be added where time permits below (my main focus being on the Hobart count) and there will also be some comments on general themes.  Don't expect to see much on this page on Tuesday; comments will be added on Wednesday.  I will not necessarily cover all councils but expect to have brief comments at least on several.  

On Tuesday ballot papers will be removed from envelopes and there may be some computer data entry for some large councils but don't expect official figures.  I may have some indications from scrutineers depending on the pace of counting but the main counting activity for Mayors and Deputies together with the start of data entry is on Wednesday. The TEC expects to have provisional 20% or 50% distributions for all councils at some stage on Wednesday.  These provisional results are what would happen if only the votes entered to that point were used to decide the election.  Usually most of the candidates who are provisionally elected at the 20% stage end up winning, but often some of those elected to the last few positions change.  It is common to see media misreporting that candidates "elected" in these 20% and 50% interim counts have "won" but it is only when the final, 100%, count is done that the winners are official. 

Where the final few seat results in the interim counts are within 100 votes or so (depending on council) then it's possible the winners will change by random sample error alone.  They can also change if a candidate's victory depends on which of two other candidates is excluded at a certain point.  But there is a more important reason why they can change, and it is this:

Beware, Big Word: Stratification!

It's very important to be aware that interim primary vote figures for the various Councils using automated data entry won't necessarily be unbiased samples of the whole count.  Votes do not reach the Electoral Commission in random order, but rather arrive on particular days, and within each day's sample they may be further stratified by post office of origin (for instance).  There will be political differences between the pool of voters who tend to vote early in the count and those who vote late in the count. Also, campaign events that happen during the postal voting period can have more impact during some parts of the count than others.  

The TEC may well make vigorous efforts to reduce this stratification, but nothing will get rid of it completely.  It's also hard to say how compulsory voting might affect it, since the pools of early and late voters will be different.  In 2018 a "green shift" was observed in many (not all) councils, with obviously green/left candidates tending to get a final percentage that was around 1.1 times their vote in the first interim count, and righties tending to drop back accordingly.  The effect might be more pronounced, absent or in the opposite direction this time - who knows?

Hence when the TEC release primary figures for various percentages be aware that these are not true representative samples and that past experience shows that substantial changes may occur.  (For instance in 2014 one candidate for one council who was not getting elected on the 20% sample was elected in third place, though that's an extreme example.)  Any result that is even remotely close will therefore not be called on 20% of primaries. 

Please note that I only "call" a seat when I consider it virtually certain that the candidate in question has won.  I ask that people not describe me as having called any seat where I have not explicitly used the word "called" for it.

General Themes: Counting

Counting delays: King Island arrival of ballots has been delayed by inability of plane to fly in bad weather.

General Themes: Results

Any general comments on results will be added here.

Specific Councils

Comments on specific councils will be added here, by council in alphabetical order. All mayoral results will be noted when I've seen them 

Break O'Day 

Mick Tucker re-elected Mayor on primaries.

Brighton

No mayoral primaries yet but as Leigh Gray has a massive lead in the councillor race he will presumably be re-elected.  (edit: yep, almost won Mayor on primaries).  

Burnie

Incumbent Mayor Steve Kons is trailing Teeny Brumby by 9% on primaries. I don't have any scrutineering info but that's a lot to catch up under OPV.

Wed 7 pm: Kons now almost 12% behind with 40% to throw, almost half of which is from a female candidate.  Absent of any scrutineering data that sounds terminal.

Wed 7:30: Ouch, Kons drops to third and is defeated as Mayor, Brumby has a massive lead over Chris Lynch.  (Lynch by the way was federal candidate for Braddon and is doing rather better in the councillor race this time than his two previous very close wins; he looks comfortable in the 20% count in seventh place.)

10:15 Brumby clears the final hurdle and wins easily.  

Saturday: Former mayor Alwyn Boyd has been voted off council.  

Central Coast

Cheryl Fuller elected to vacant mayoralty.

Central Highlands

No mayoral election, Lou Triffitt reelected unopposed.

Circular Head

Gerard Blizzard elected to vacant mayoralty.

Clarence

In the 20% count Blomeley, Mulder, Chong and Ritchie all win with quotas (amusingly Blomeley and Mulder are tied and Chong and Ritchie are tied), followed by Warren, Kennedy. Hulme, Hunter, James, Peers, Darko and Walker.  Von Bertouch provisionally loses and is well down the list; Darko would be a second Green for Clarence. Emma Goyne is currently 13th, 37 votes behind Walker at the end.  

Brendan Blomeley has a very narrow lead over Tony Mulder for mayor but it would not surprise me to see it run down on preferences. In fact it would surprise me not to see that.

Wed 7:00 pm It's close - Mulder moves to a 0.55% lead over Blomeley with a massive 31% from Heather Chong to throw.

Wed 9:00 Blomeley wins 50.81-49.19 after Chong's preferences!  An interesting result given that the councillor results have taken a shift to the left.  I think there might be turbulence ahead ..

Thursday 4:20 Allison Ritchie leads the ballot for the Deputy vacancy with 20.5% followed by Wendy Kennedy 15.3 and Bree Hunter 14.1.  A Ritchie win would be a 1-2 for Blomeley's Better Clarence ticket.

Thursday 9:00 In the 50% count for councillor there is a change: Goyne is now provisionally in by a substantial margin, replacing Peers who is fighting for the last seat with James and Walker but about 70 votes behind them.

Friday 2 pm: The Deputy Mayor race between Ritchie and Kennedy (and perhaps Hunter) has been very flat sailing on preferences so far, with Ritchie holding her lead and votes going out of the system.  There are still votes from Hulme and Hunter to throw, unless Hunter overtakes Kennedy which I suspect is very unlikely.

3:50 It's looking like Ritchie is Deputy as she has increased her lead.  Only Hunter to throw and Kennedy needs to gain at .246 votes/vote; absent of party cues and with both candidates having had a high profile in the past there's no reason to think such a large gain happens.  

6:30 Ritchie wins 54.00-46.00

Tuesday: Councillors are confirmed and it's the same winners as the 50% count with Peers and von Bertouch out.  In the final count Peers was overtaken by Rainbird by 12 votes with Rainbird finishing 13th, but we know from the 50% count that had Peers survived that exclusion, Goyne would have won anyway.  

Derwent Valley

Michelle Dracoulis who won Mayor from off council in a by-election has been re-elected Mayor with a huge margin.

Devonport

No mayoral figures yet.  Former Mayor and Senator and mayoral candidate (mayoralty is vacant) Steve Martin is leading challenger Alison Jarman in the councillor race.

Thursday 3 pm: Jarman 40.5% leads Martin 36.8% in the mayoral race to be decided on Leigh Murphy's preferences.

Thursday 4: Jarman wins 55-45 so Martin doesn't get his old job back.

Dorset

Greg Howard re-elected Mayor but was a close one by 90 votes over Beth Donohue 

Flinders

Rachel Summers elected to vacant mayoralty.

George Town

Greg Kieser re-elected Mayor.

Glamorgan-Spring Bay

Wed 7 pm No mayoral figures yet but in the councillor race mayoral aspirants Cheryl Arnol (former mayor and veteran councillor) and Jenny Woods are both somewhat ahead of incumbent mayor Robert Forbes Young (who is fourth) so one to keep an eye on.  Forbes Young was elected in this by-election; Arnol was Mayor 1999-2005.

10:20 A cliffhanger for second in Mayoral race with Forbes Young leading Woods for second by two votes, which will have to be checked repeatedly before the exclusion can proceed.  However whoever survives it needs an over 70-30 flow of non-exhausting preferences to win, otherwise Arnol is back.

Thursday: Woods was indeed excluded but it was Arnol who got the massive preference flow and returns as Mayor.  

Glenorchy

Tues 7 pm I have heard that in a C. 500 vote sample of Mayor incumbent Bec Thomas is over 50 with Kelly Sims a distant second and also that Sue Hickey has a very large lead in the Deputy race with a primary vote in the high 30s

Wed: confirmed Thomas re-elected with absolute majority

Wed 7 pm: The 20% count is up for Councillor.  Incumbents Thomas, Hickey, Sims, Dunsby and King are the top five.  Currently provisionally following them are Molly Kendall, ex-councillor Harry Quick, Russell Yaxley, ex-Mayor Stuart Slade and Shane Alderton.  However Alderton's position especially is very shaky as he beats Morris Malone by nine votes in the 20% count after outlasting Josh Cockshutt by three (I don't know which of Malone and Cockshutt wins if Alderton exits at that point).  Slade is 32 votes clear of elimination at one point, though he has that sort of margin to three candidates.

Thursday 1:10 As expected Hickey is easily winning Deputy, way ahead of three opponents (update: and has won.)

Thursday 4:50 A change in the provisional winner list in the 50% count with Cockshutt now provisionally winning in 11th with 1095.7, Slade 12th with 1025.29 and Alderton missing out with 927.96. That's quite a big gap to Slade. However Alderton is only five votes over Malone so it's possible Malone might outlast Alderton (don't know if there's any reason to suggest he'd be a chance if so.)

Huon Valley

Wednesday: No mayoral figures yet but acting mayor Sally Doyle is leading the councillor race ahead of Toby Thorpe who is running for deputy; mayoral candidate Paul Gibson is a solid third there.

9:50 Wednesday: Doyle is leading Gibson by 2% on primaries.  Gibson is an endorsed Green and at least one of the preference sources (Callaghan) looks anti-Greens; others are harder to pick.  

Thursday 12:40 Doyle leads by 4.7% with only the throw of Debbie Armstrong to come; I expect Doyle will win. (3 pm: yep confirmed.)

Thursday 3 pm: optically Thorpe seems to have a good stack in the Deputy race 

Thursday 11:30 pm: I've seen commentary supported by a Facebook post screenshot that suggests that, having again not been elected Mayor, Mike Wilson may not take his Councillor post.  The count will continue and elect him no matter what his intentions, and then if he chooses to immediately resign there would be be a recount of his seat only.  The votes that would be used in the recount would be the votes Wilson had in the count at the time of his election (some of them his, some received from other candidates).  There would be a period of time for candidates to notify their intentions to contest or not contest and then the recount itself would be more or less instant (bar a programmed pause for dramatic effect; I am not making that up!)

Friday: yep, Thorpe elected Deputy

Saturday: An interesting result is the defeat of Marshall Callaghan who was provisionally elected in the 20% and 50% counts but missed out in the final result.  Callaghan ran on a "pro-business, pro-development, pro-salmon" platform and was seventh on primaries but struggled on preferences.  In the 50% count he defeated Cathy Temby for the final position by 14 votes, but in the final count his primary vote dropped from 5.2% to 5.0% while Temby's rose from 3.6% to 3.95%.  Result: Temby wins by 21 votes.  

Sunday: Having been elected as a councillor, Wilson has posted on Facebook that he has resigned.  This will trigger a recount to fill his seat probably in the next few weeks, as discussed above.  

Kentish

No mayor ballot, Kate Haberle re-elected unopposed.

King Island

Count delayed by bad flying weather.

Thursday 4:20 Marcus Blackie wins vacant mayoralty.

Kingborough

Wed 12 pm: have heard that Paula Wriedt is winning Mayor easily in sampling and topping the councillor ballot with Glade-Wright, Cordover, Richardson also polling well.

Wed 7pm: Wriedt re-elected as mayor easily, no sign of councillor counting.

8:05: The 20% count is up with Wriedt massively topping the poll, recent Liberal candidate Aldo Antolli bolting onto council second, and Mark Richardson, Clare Glade-Wright, Kasper Deane and Gideon Cordover all winning easily.  They're followed by Christian Street and Amanda Midgeley.  Currently Flora Fox (by 26 votes) and David Bain (by 8) beat Di Carter for the final two seats.  However not only could that change with further votes because the margin is so small, but Carter only outlasts Jill Hickie by 5, so perhaps Carter will exit before Hickie, which might put Hickie over at least Bain.   So at least here there is a four-way battle for these two seats, with Fox best placed.

Thursday 6: The 50% count has changed no provisional winners but stretched the margins to something much more significant with Bain over Carter by 115 and Carter over Hickie by 38. 

Friday 2: Clare Glade-Wright has won Deputy easily.

Saturday: The button's been pressed with no changes to the final winner list.  Hickie did overtake Carter but was unable to catch Bain.

Latrobe

No mayor ballot, Peter Freshney reelected unopposed.

Saturday: Another Deputy Mayor defeated with Graeme Brown beaten by Vonette Mead.

Launceston

Have heard from scrutineers that in the mayoral total primary Danny Gibson is way out in front with 36%, double his nearest rivals and will win the vacant mayoralty.

8:20 The 20% count is up and currently Launceston is on for seven new councillors, which seems unlikely to change as incumbents Paul Spencer and Krista Preece are well off the pace in this count.  The final margin is large at 60 votes for a 20% sample but the candidate in 13th, Cecily Rosol, is a Green who might benefit from any green shift in further counting.  Also Rosol at one point survives elimination over Jacob Gelston by two votes though I suspect the order of elimination here doesn't matter.  An interesting provisional addition is George Razay who ran as a tealish independent at the federal election but didn't poll that much, yet is doing very well here.

Thursday 1 pm: Confirmed, Gibson is mayor 

Thursday night: No change in the provisional winner list in the 50% count and it doesn't look close to changing at this stage.

Saturday: Yesterday an interesting Deputy Mayor result with Matthew Garwood winning from off council. Garwood was previously best known to the nation at large as a strikingly tattooed operatic and musical theatre singer who appeared in The Voice in 2014.  

Monday: Councillors confirmed, same result as 50% count.  

Meander Valley

Wayne Johnston has a massive lead and will be re-elected Mayor. [Edit: indeed, wins on primaries.]

Sunday: Johnston's deputy Michael Kelly was not so lucky, defeated by recent Liberal candidate Stephanie Cameron who performed well at the state election.  In the councillor count Kelly was tenth on primaries but got a pile of preferences from Johnston's surplus and was elected fourth, while off-council candidate Daniel Smedley was seventh on primaries, ninth after Johnston's surplus, and then overtaken by John Temple late in the preference distribution, hence missing out.  

Northern Midlands

Former Speaker Michael Polley is not currently getting re-elected in the provisional 20% count so that's one to keep an eye on . Also, Mary Knowles reelected Mayor.

Friday:  Janet Lambert, who has narrowly missed out in two state elections and for Deputy Mayor last time, has finally won one, defeating Richard Goss in a rematch of the 2018 Deputy contest.  

Saturday: Polley was indeed defeated.

Sorell

Kerry Vincent re-elected Mayor by lots 

Saturday: Sitting Deputy Natham Reynolds has been beaten by an off-council challenger, famous journalist Charles Wooley who has won very easily.  A fair upheaval at councillor level too with three of the seven recontesting councillors losing, so Sorell has five new councillors out of nine.

Southern Midlands

no mayor ballot, Edwin Batt elected to vacant mayoralty unopposed.

Tasman

The first defeat of a sitting Mayor with Kelly Spaulding losing fairly narrowly to off-council challenger Rod Macdonald.  

Waratah-Wynyard

Mary Duniam wins vacant mayoralty.

West Coast

Incumbent Mayor Shane Pitt has been returned easily.

West Tamar

Incumbent Christina Holmdahl leads Rick Shegog by 6.5% during distribution of Mayor preferences.

Wednesday 7:45 Holmdahl narrowly retains, 52-48.

Friday 2: Jess Greene who joined the council on a recount during the term has been narrowly elected Deputy Mayor, defeating incumbent Joy Allen.  Greene is a former Labor Legislative Council candidate.

Saturday: In the final Councillor count Peter Kearney has lost his seat to Julie Sladden by 3.59 votes.  Kearney was 53 votes clear in the 50% count but his primary vote declined from 6% to 5.85% while Sladden's rose from 4.66% to 4.95%.  Sladden is a doctor who is opposed to COVID vaccines.