Victoria 2018 Live

The starting line: Labor 46 Coalition 37 Green 3 Ind 2 (Melton treated as Labor)
Polls have closed
Seats apparently won (some at low levels of doubt) ALP 51 Coalition 24 Green 1 Ind 2
10 seats currently in significant doubt (that I know of)

Apparent Labor gains from Coalition (some still in some doubt): Bass, Mt Waverley, Ringwood, South Barwon, Burwood, Nepean, Box Hill

Coalition seats in doubt: Bayswater, Ripon, Hawthorn

Apparent ALP gain from Greens: Northcote

Apparent IND gain from Nat: Mildura

In doubt Coalition held vs Ind: Benambra, South-West Coast (likely hold but exclusion order issue)
In doubt IND held vs ALP: Morwell (Ind favoured)
In doubt ALP vs Ind: Melton
In some doubt ALP held vs Ind: Pascoe Vale (probable ALP hold)
In doubt Green held vs ALP: Prahran (ALP ahead)
In doubt ALP held vs Green: Brunswick 


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4:10 I need to sleep sometime so this is the end of the on-the-night coverage of the Lower House, and postcount threads will be rolled out on Sunday afternoon, once I've finished the Upper House thread and had some sleep.

1:51 I will now be halting Lower House coverage for the next few hours while I look at the Upper House on a separate thread

1:46 While I have Nepean and Mt Waverley as expected Labor wins, I should note that William Bowe is currently projecting the Coalition to possibly hold both.  However I expect postal flows to soften where postals have been counted on the night.  Still, the scale of Labor's win keeps getting pared back ...

1:40 A weird one there's been a bit of talk about is Werribee.  Labor Treasurer Tim Pallas is facing a challenge from indie Joe Galla, who is clearly second.  At the moment Galla needs 85% of preferences.  He is preferenced by the Greens.  Still a big ask.

1:33 Taking Caulfield off deathwatch too, something unusual happened there, as it often does in such seats!

1:30 I'm treating Mildura as an assumed win for Ali Cupper unless anyone knows better.  She is 51.2-48.8 ahead and Mildura has a low postal rate.

1:25 Russell Northe continues to improve in Morwell.  He now needs 65% of preferences and I believe he will stay second and could very well beat Labor from where he is.

1:20 In Brunswick, Hibbins has now dropped to 1.3% behind.  Animal Justice preferences will help but Labour DLP certainly won't, so this is not an easy position at all.  Brunswick, meanwhile, is very lineball.

1:20 Yildiz' target in Pascoe Vale has come down to 71%. I still think that's not feasible.

1:18 Sandringham taken off deathwatch.  Liberals lead 51-49.

1:13 Caulfield has a high Jewish vote and has just bounced back hugely to the Liberals - I've moved it to in doubt for now, but I suspect the ABC projection was simply completely wrong for this seat and that it could be retained.

1:08 We are seeing a bit of a Wentworthy thing with different prepoll vs on the day swing patterns for whatever reason and this is pulling back a number of Liberal seats from the brink.  For instance they have just taken a slight lead in Hawthorn which I had as an assumed loss earlier. We should bear in mind that (i) some postals are being counted on the night in a lot of seats (ii) absents which favour Labor have not yet been counted, so it's difficult to read where the very close contests will go from here.

12:16 Taking a break til 1 am.  When I get back I will look closely at the Upper House.

12:12 A big recovery in Ripon so I have moved that one to in doubt.  We may see some more of the apparent wins wound back, but where Labor is more than 51-49 up and some postals are included I won't do so for now.

12:08 Looks like ABC has just turned off the projection (probably automatically at midnight) so a bunch of seats just jumped to real vote values and in many cases became in doubt.

12:02 Labor has jumped to a large lead in Northcote so I am treating that as a Labor regain from the Greens.

11:54 Brighton removed from deathwatch.

11:48 A seat I've been ignoring all night and shouldn't have - South-West Coast.  Here ex-MLC James Purcell runs third, but only needs 65% of preferences to beat the Liberals if he can get into second.  He is currently 7.7% behind with 26.3% of minor candidate preferences to catch Labor on.  However these include 8.2% for the Country Party who have preferenced the Liberals, which (if their voters followed that to any degree) will make it hard for him to reach second.  Given that the Liberals are only barely beating Labor 52-48 they must be at serious risk of losing to Purcell if he can make the final two.

11:35 In Mildura Ali Cupper is 51-49 ahead on projection (and more on real votes) with over 80% counted.  The counted votes include 623 postals.  Nationals in a lot of bother there.

11:28 Croydon removed from deathwatch.

11:21 Looking at Nepean, where the Liberals have come back quite a lot, it is interesting to note that some postal votes are already included in the total.  I didn't know this was going to happen, and it should mean that swings from final election night results are smaller than normal.

11:08 Labor's projected lead is slipping into very marginal territory in Brighton where their 19-year-old candidate has nonetheless done very well.  Ditto Bayswater.

10:53 A common pattern so far is that when prepolls are added the ABC projection for Labor's 2PP drops by a point or two, suggesting that prepolls had a lower swing than booth voting.  This may yet save the Coalition in some of their seats that are not yet too far gone.

10:15 The Liberals have jumped into the primary lead in Prahran.  Should this continue it will come down to a fight between Labor and the Greens on primary votes and preferences.  Currently Labor needs by 0.9% and minor candidates have a combined 7.3%.

10:09 Prepolls help Liberals in Forest Hill. Taken off deathwatch.

10:00 In Benambra, Hawkins now needs 77% of preferences.  That's probably going to get worse but might still be winnable.

9:40 In Pascoe Vale, Yildiz needs 74% of preferences.  That's difficult because the Greens had Labor ahead of him.

9:38 In Melton, Birchall now needs 73% of preferences.  There are a lot of indie votes in the mix that may well not break strongly enough, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

9:34 In Geelong Darren Lyons is second but currently needs 78% of preferences, which is unlikely given the Greens are in the mix

9:30 In Morwell the Shooters cards all preferenced Northe ahead of the Coalition (one preferenced Labor ahead of Northe but Shooters voters may well ignore that, if the card was even handed out.

9:25 The Greens have extended their projected lead in Brunswick.  They are slightly behind on the live count at present though.

9:15 The Greens have hit the front in Brunswick! This seat has very bouncy patterns on postals and early votes.

9:13 Liberals have slipped backwards in Prahran but still not much counted there, let's wait for the prepoll dump and see if they are still struggling.

9:11 Prepolls have been dumped in Ferntree Gully and I've taken that one off the deathwatch as the Liberals are projecting to 51.6 on the ABC.

9:09 I think Tim McCurdy is going to hold Ovens Valley with the help of Country preferences and postals.  I've taken that one off in doubt for now.

9:01 Thomas Clement (geekLections) who is doing Upper House live projections currently has micros winning in every region with the Greens in danger of winning no seats.  This would be based on an assumption of 100% preference flows but we will need to wait to see what these scenarios are and how vulnerable they are to below the line votes.  I will not be looking at the Upper House figures seriously until probably after midnight or tomorrow. (I'll be up all night watching Carlsen vs Caruana so the updates will continue until their 11th draw!)

8:44 The Liberal vote in Prahran is lifting and they should get up to make the final two with the assistance of postals, but even that isn't clear.  So it looks like it will be a fight between Labor and the Greens for which one comes second then wins on the other's preferences.  At the moment this is very close - will Prahran give us another thriller?

8:34 Antony Green has just mentioned Labor could lose Melton where their primary vote is very poor following the loss of a sitting member.  Independent Ian Birchall is in third on 13.4%.  If he can get into the final two he currently needs 72.4% of preferences ahead of Labor.  I don't know how well preferences would flow between the various minor candidates in this seat.

8:32 Labor has taken the lead in Northcote.

8:21 Northcote is seriously dicey now with the Greens on a projected result of only 50.3%.

8:14 In Morwell now, the Nationals vote has completely collapsed pushing them into fourth.  The Nationals won't make the 2PP or even probably the 3CP so the current Nationals vs Labor preference count is irrelevant - except that if Labor is thumping the Nationals they are probably also thumping the Liberals.  On current primaries Labor has made the 2CP so the only candidate who can beat them will be Northe.  Northe currently needs 71% of preferences, but that will be mostly off Coalition and Shooters candidates.  I believe on current numbers Northe would stay second.

8:11 In Altona, Tony Hooper was a slightly fancied independent but has failed to make the top two.

8:06 Benambra is messy.  Currently the Nationals candidate is on 39%, Labor 17.9, Hawkins (IND) 15.2, O'Connor (IND) 14.1 and the Shooters on 9.9 (which is likely to drop with larger booths).  One of the indies will make the final two, but currently they will need 76% of preferences.  The fly in the ointment there might be the high Shooters vote.  Again we will need to see a 2CP but could also be waiting for exclusion order to see which indie is ahead.  Very long way to go in Benambra.

8:04 The target for Yildiz in Pascoe Vale has dropped to 73% of preferences.  I still think that's a bit steep because I think the Greens preferences won't help him.  But I have some doubt until we see a 2CP count between Labor and him.

7:57 Liberal scrutineers apparently saying the swing in pre-poll is less - but it's not going to be another Wentworth (that's my comment, not theirs).  The ABC is giving away Box Hill, I'd like to wait a bit on that one.

7:56 Ali Cupper (IND) is now very narrowly ahead on projection in Mildura.

7:54 Currently in Ovens Valley, Tammy Atkins would need 83% of preferences (I haven't factored in booth swings).  We'll need to wait for the VEC to realign the two-candidate count in this seat.  It should be regarded as in doubt until that happens, unless the % required picks up.

7:52 Large swing to Labor vs Green in Richmond.  Paul Keating might have a bit to do with that.

7:50 The Greens are ahead in Northcote but far from home,

7:45 The booth swings in Prahran are wildly uneven but so far include the very poor booth for the Liberals of Balaclava.  With more counting the Liberals might lift into second but I wouldn't be sure of that because the booth swings are all over the place (from 5% to 20% against them so far.)

7:40 In Prahran on current primaries there is a risk of the Liberals being third.  If they do make the 2CP then whichever of Labor or the Greens will beat them easily.  Need to check where the votes are from to see how likely this all is.

7:40 The primary vote shifts are bad news for the Greens in terms of picking up seats from Labor, and also in terms of holding Prahran which I haven't had a close look at yet.

7:36 It will take a while to settle down which seats the Liberals are losing here but they look gone in Ringwood, in big trouble in South Barwon, Bass, possibly Caulfield, Ferntree Gully, Forest Hill and Mt Waverley.  Also dicey at the moment could be Bayswater, Box Hill, Gembrook, Hastings, Hawthorn, Mornington.

7:30 Labor are going OK in Brunswick so far.  The reason for this is that the Liberal vote has crashed so badly that the change in Liberal preferencing won't help the Greens much.  So far the Greens are going OK in Melbourne and Northcote but not showing signs of gains elsewhere.

7:20 Antony Green has called the election.

7:15 In Pascoe Vale, Oscar Yildiz is in second on early numbers on 20.2%.  He already looks to have the Liberals licked which in turn will put him over the Greens.  At the moment Lizzie Blandthorn (ALP) has a 6% average booth swing against her which would put her in the low 40s and leave Yildiz needing an high-70s preference flow to win.  I would think that is difficult because of the Green vote which is more likely to help Labor.

7:07 We are seeing massive early booth swings in a huge bunch of second-tier Coalition seats that were not even mentioned in the campaign, perhaps because no-one bothered polling Coalition held seats.  On early figures all of the following are interesting: Box Hill, Croydon, Evelyn, Ferntree Gully, Cranbrook, Hastings, Hawthorn, Mornington, Mt Waverley, Nepean and Ringwood though some of these are bound to return to base with more counting.  This may be an on-the-day vs early vote issue driving up the booth swings so we need to wait to see these settle down but none of these were even on the radar.  We are not so far seeing anything that gives Labor the slightest concern in any Labor vs Coalition seat so at the moment it looks like any losses will be to the Greens or indies.

7:00 There are a number of Coalition seats on substantial margins where early booths have had large swings.  These may tone down with more numbers but we could see a few bolter seats go close or fall at this rate.  If the picture painted by Antony Green on current figures is correct Labor may pick up swings in useful places, cancelling out some of its disadvantages.

7:00 Ricky Muir has gone off the boil in Morwell.  A possible scenario on current numbers is one of the Coalition parties going out in fourth, pushing the other into the top two with Russell Northe struggling to catch Labor and make the top two.  But the Coalition vote might drop and the flow between the Coalition parties might not be that good, so Northe is not out of it yet.

6:55 Frankston, where the Liberal candidate had a David Speers disaster, is showing a big swing to Labor.

6:49 In Ripon the Liberal primary in the early booths is way down on the combined Coalition parties vote from 2014, but Nationals preferences did not flow very strongly then.  At the moment the ABC estimates a sufficient swing to put the seat in trouble.

6:42 In Morwell the first booth in has Labor 22.8 National 21.3 Liberal 18.4 Northe 13.3 Muir 12.5!  But this is also a very good Coalition booth so one would expect the Coalition parties' vote to go down through the night if the swing in this very small booth holds.  A snapshot of the mess that has been anticipated in this seat.

6:38 Average swing against McCurdy after 3 booths running at 10%.  At the moment if that holds, Tammy Atkins could need an 85%-ish flow to win, which is difficult with the Country Party also in the mix.

6:35 First booth in Bass shows a winnable swing to Labor.  That will be a very tricky count to project.

6:30 First booth in in indie target Ovens Valley - it's a tiny one but there is a 9% swing against Tim McCurdy but 6% of it has gone to Labor.  If his primary vote swing gets a little bit worse McCurdy's position might be dicey (he got 55.5 last time) but Tammy Atkins will need to pick up on the primary. (Update: in a further booth Atkins is into second.)

6:25 Early booths in.  Tiny booths in rural electorates.  You know the drill.

6:20 My seat model gives Labor about 50-51 seats if the exit poll is correct.

6:10 Polls have closed, waiting for useful figures.

5:40 Issues flagged as important to the voters in Galaxy (clearly a pick all that apply format) Health/Hospitals + Education 41%, Public Transport 37%, Roads/Traffic Congestion 29%, Law & Order 28%, Performance of Gov 25% and Leadership of Andrews/Guy + Use of Renewables 23%. (Thanks to @Jeffmister on Twitter for tweeting these.)

5:21 Exit poll 55-45 to Labor.  Labor 41 Coalition 38 Green 12 Other 9.  This has a slightly stronger preference flow to Labor than previous polling.  The Greens vote is a little surprising.   Exit polls are a little inexact in Australia but this is looking promising for a possible blowout in Labor's favour.

5:10 Exit poll "very soon" - I've seen what I take as a hint that it's not going to show anything too concerning for Labor.

4:30 A pretty quiet day in terms of incidents to my knowledge.  Confirmation a Galaxy on-the-day poll (ie exit poll) is coming from 5 pm on Nine.

12:40 Introduction Welcome to my election day coverage of the 2018 Victorian state election.  Comments on the count itself will start from 6:00 or shortly after, unless there are useful reports earlier.  Comments will scroll with the latest at the top apart from the state summary, refresh every 10 minutes or so for updates once counting gets seriously underway.  In 2014 an exit poll emerged just after 5:00.  From 4:00 the Victorian Electoral Commission will begin sorting prepoll votes, which in Victoria are placed within the same box whatever electorate they are for.  Antony Green has said that the VEC will prevent scrutineers from releasing sampling prior to 6:00 by holding their mobile phones, but don't be too surprised if something gets out anyway.  Actual prepoll figures are not expected before 8:30, and prepolls from out of electorate won't be counted tonight.

My final comments on state polling were here.  Final polls have Labor way ahead on the 2PP vote, but converting this into a majority of any great size could be complicated by (i) contests with the Greens in the inner city (ii) the relative shortage of winnable Coalition marginals (iii) the disproportionate enrolment growth in Labor seats, which means the electoral map is skewed in the Coalition's favour.  Even so realistic outcomes based on the polling, and allowing for the possibility of a normal level of polling error, range from a Labor minority government to a runaway win with over 50 seats. In my view the latter is more likely than the former.  A Liberal win of any sort would seem to require some combination of serious polling error and luck.

At the moment there are no breaking incidents worthy of comment, except that a dodgy website, http://wheretovote.org.au/, has been seen that seems to be a neutral polling place finder but brings up details for Liberal candidates.  This was being promoted in Google this morning but I have been unable to find it by Google searching personally despite prolonged attempts, so maybe it was only being promoted for a few hours.

My live commentary aims to act as a complement to the ABC live coverage, especially by following interesting seats that aren't on the radar, exclusion order issues, and so on.  Tonight I expect to focus almost exclusively on the Lower House, and only switch to looking at the Upper House when a useful percentage of the vote has been counted there, which may not happen tonight at all.  Please note that it takes a very long time for Upper House counting to settle down to a point where winners might be projected with any kind of confidence, and even then just assuming the ABC Calculator winners will win is a method likely to lead people astray.  In any case, I expect at least a few and quite possibly several completely undeserving micro-parties to win by preference harvesting, but how many, who, and with what vote shares remains to be seen.

In my Lower House coverage I will be especially keen to keep an eye on possible non-classic seats where independents may disrupt the Labor-Coalition 2PP picture.  Often we can get a good idea quite early if they are a serious threat or not.

From tomorrow I will be rolling out a postcount thread for Lower House seats in doubt.  Anything remotely as exciting as Prahran 2014 will get its own thread.

There may be delays in clearing comments tonight and there will certainly be delays in responding to them; also at some point during the coverage I will stop for a brief dinner break.