Saturday, November 29, 2014

Victorian Election Live Election Day Thread

SUMMARY 

SEATS APPARENTLY WON ALP 47 L-NP 38 GRN 1 IND 1 
(Seats included in tally with very low levels of doubt: Bentleigh,  Frankston (ALP),  Morwell (L-NP), Melbourne (Grn))
Seriously unclear seats (1):
Prahran (three-cornered, depending on exclusion order)

Labor has won the election
Summary last changed 12:45 pm



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2:45 Wrap (nearly finished) and post-count deferred til I've had some sleep!  Up tomorrow midday-ish.

12:45 Haven't got around to the late-night wrap yet.  It's coming though.

12:40 More complexity in Prahran - Clem Newton-Brown has a wafer-thin lead over Labor after the inclusion of postals (but might not keep it with early and absent votes added.)

12:20 I've been holding off on Brunswick because of some missing booths but there's no longer any doubt there.

12:00 For some upper house summaries see William Bowe here.  Looking like a real mess for the new government to deal with.  They should be able to pass anything supported by them, the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers.  Good luck with that then.

11:19 The Greens' lead in Melbourne has come down lots.  They've finished the night with only 51.2% with all the prepolls to come.  Should be enough but just a sliver of doubt there.

11:03 After that massive early lead the Greens have actually lost Richmond with all preferences in.

11:00 Probably do a late night wrap in an hour or so.

10:24 An important issue in Prahran is the distribution of tiddler preferences prior to the crunch point between the Greens and Labor.  An especially significant issue (noted by poster PhoenixGreen on Pollbludger) is the Animal Justice Party preferences, which could flow strongly to the Greens if the Greens are not too far behind Labor.

10:21 51.3% to Labor in Frankston with all booths in so that one is pretty much over too.

10:12 Labor now have a very small projected lead in Richmond.

10:08 With 17 of 18 booths two-party counted Labor holds a 51:49 lead in Frankston.  The ALP projection might be exaggerated but if there's no improvement for the Liberals on the last booth it will be time to remove that from the unclear category.

10:04 Napthine to step down as Liberal leader.

9:59 I am not sure what the ABC computer is doing with Morwell where it is modelling 50:50 when the actual figures are 51.7% to the Nationals.  It's apparently the case that the prepoll centre in the electorate is in Morwell itself which may make things interesting so we won't quite call it, but it would be a heck of a haul to pull it back.

9:54 ABC Computer again giving Richmond to the Greens off a current 0.6% lead.  Not enough in my view giving the crazy swing bounces from booth to booth we've seen in this seat so far.  Three booths have 2PP counts to come.

9:52 Napthine concedes.  Very noble of him to do so and not attempt to beat up any doubts.

9:47 I no longer see realistic doubt that Labor will win a majority.

9:26 Ripon firming for the Coalition which now has a 1.2 point lead.  In Richmond the Greens' lead keeps crashing as the extremely unrepresentative early booths are cancelled out.  Brunswick is becoming less contested and is increasingly safe for Labor.

9:11 The swing in Richmond has dropped off to "only" 8.4% to the Greens (2% more than needed) so that remains unclear.

9:02 As I write that Albert Park improves for Labor.  On Prahran, I am not at all sure (as claimed on the ABC) that the Liberals lose it should the Greens finish in second. The Labor to Green preference flow is unlikely to be as strong as Green to Labor.  So the Liberals are still in the contest in Prahran.

8:55 It's not absolutely certain Labor has won a majority, though they would govern anyway as the Greens have said they would support them.  Of the 49 seats in which Labor is shown as leading, there are varying levels over six: Albert Park and Frankston where Labor has inconclusive leads, Morwell and Ripon which are unclear, Brunswick where there's a contest with the Greens and Prahran where there's an exclusion order issue.  There should be a Labor majority but a Labor minority government supported by the Greens remains possible.

8:49 Frankston is still not bolted down; the 2PP count is quite slow there.

8:40 While the Green inner-city vote has been very strong the party is currently running at 11.8% statewide.

8:30 Richmond looking like a huge swing to the Greens on the ABC site.  If that holds you will - in my view unfortunately - be hearing the words "Nordic model" a lot more in the next four years. Still waiting for a full spread of booths there however as there may be very uneven swing across the electorate, and there may also be modelling issues. (Even the Greens aren't yet claiming it for sure while Labor are claiming they are in the race.)

8:29 Still nothing in it for second in Prahran.

8:22 I'd like to be careful about the ABC's projections in Richmond (and ditto Brunswick).  On current primaries with 8 of 15 booths counted Labor still has a primary lead.  Presumably there are large and very Green booths to come.  However, Lonergan's polling stocks are now rising!

8:10 Very slow count in Richmond so need to see more figures there although the Greens have a good lead on the few booths so far. Antony is indicating some doubt on Frankston where there is also a slow count with 14 candidates.

8:05 There is now no evidence the Liberals are winning any ALP seat anywhere, although they still have vague chances in some.  Labor's only likely losses are to the Greens and they are exceeded by the apparent gain of the whole sandbelt (or at least three of them).

7:50 Ripon has dropped back to very close.

7:46 Prahran will be unclear for a while.  Labor is shown by the ABC as notionally winning but to do this they must finish second on primaries which is very much up in the air at this stage.

7:43 As noted by the ABC there is a monster swing in Morwell.  It's going to Labor more than the independents, and while the ABC computer is giving it away with a current projected 1.5% lead let's wait for more there.  Oh and Antony's about to call the election.

7:38 Independent Suzanna Sheed has come up to level on primaries with the Nationals in Shepparton! Also the Greens are in a strong position in Melbourne. I have to have a close look at Prahran and will do so in a moment.

7:36 Keep an eye on Northcote where large swings to the Greens are popping up on the ABC site now and then.

7:35 Labor now projecting to 52.1% 2PP.

7:26 I agree with Antony that things are looking very good for Labor at this early stage.  They do not seem to be losing anything for which there is data and they are putting out a lot of potential fires (we still have to wait on the inner city seats at risk to the Greens). Labor now leads in Mordialloc, leads in Bentleigh, leads marginally in Ripon.  Frankston and Prahran which are big risks have limited data at this stage.  A few Labor seats are shaky but they are not unexpectedly behind anywhere yet.

7:22 Booth projections are jumping around quickly - for instance James Merlino briefly fell behind in Monbulk but is now well ahead.

7:17 Of the seats with more than 10% counted, Labor are now ahead in expected gain Mordialloc. They are also ahead now on booth matching in Ripon (!) but that is likely to be a very messy seat to model so let's wait for more on that one too.

7:15 Note that I am not counting Labor retains of notional Liberal seats as changes of ownership (Wendouree, Yan Yean etc).  There is a big swing to Labor in Wendouree which looks safe.

7:13 The Eildon swing has gone with more figures.

7:10 The ABC site (which I must say is not working very reliably at all) now has Eildon on its changing seats list with a big projected swing.  Keep an eye on this one.  Overall, the ABC currently has about a 3% swing to Labor, which would end up with about 51.4% to Labor.

6:55 Shepparton has been mentioned as another rural seat to keep an eye on.  So far the swing in the seat to independent Suzanna Sheed, who is currently on 20%, is enough to knock the Coalition below 50%, but not by much.  The Nationals vote would need to go down quite a bit from there to make things interesting.

6:50 With five booths in there seems to be a large swing to the Coalition in Ripon, as expected.  Only a couple of percent counted and small rural booths may swing more than big ones but looking like the retirement of Joe Helper is as big a deal as generally thought there.  (Update: The ABC now has the projected swing as smaller than the ABC website, which doesn't seem to be booth-matching, but enough to make it likely the seat will fall.)

6:45 Eildon was mentioned in dispatches too as a seat the Coalition appeared to be firewalling early this week.  Without a state swing, some swing to the Liberals would be expected in the seat based on personal vote effects.  In early booths the Liberals are getting a swing there.

6:40 Narracan has been now and then mentioned in dispatches as a rural seat to watch but nothing to see there based on the early booths.

6:38 In Buninyong there is one booth in which is consistent with the pre-election view (with a Galaxy seat poll to support it) that rogue Nationals candidate Sonia Smith isn't a serious threat but might get 10% or so.

6:30 The ABC computer is calling various seats as wins for mostly the Coalition based on very small numbers of votes.  Because small rural booths are counted first this early lead to the Coalition is normal, do not adjust your computers.

6:23 Congrats to Mildura, first seat with figures on the board.  You know the drill about early figures in small outlying booths so I won't go through that again!

6:00 pm Newspoll Exit Poll Newspoll confirms this should be a close one with a 2PP of 51:49 to Labor.  Primaries will be added if/when known.

5:50 pm Betting Poster Rocket Rocket on Poll Bludger reports betting has been blowing out in Labor's favour through the day; it could be boosted by insider knowledge of exit polls.

5:30 INTRODUCTION

Welcome to my Victorian election count live thread.  Comments will appear from below the line and scroll up with the most recent on top.  The summary above will be edited when anything concrete can be said about particular seats that stand out.  Post edited frequently so refresh often for updates.  This thread aims to act as a now and then corrective companion to the much flashier and more advanced coverage many will watch on the ABC.  The ABC's system has some foibles and they cannot look at every seat at once.

It's important to bear in mind that early votes, expected to account for nearly a third of all votes, won't be counted tonight.  Nonetheless because postals and prepolls tend to favour conservatives while absents tend to favour Labor, the difference between pre-poll and on-the-day votes shouldn't be very great.  You can see Antony Green's article on this and I agree with him that probably the vote gap between the two types of voting will be smaller this time round.  Many prepolls in close seats are likely to be counted tomorrow, but the count tonight will be slow, and there will be the usual dribble of close seats in which the outcome won't be known for several days.

I've been trying to model this election using polling and my final pre-election model was 51.7% 2PP to Labor with an average 47 seats to 41, close enough that a narrow and somewhat lucky Liberal win couldn't be ruled out, based on any of a late swing, a lucky swing distribution or pollster house effects or herding.  Indeed it was barely 47 rather than 46 in that model (which is always going to be plus or minus at least a few), and there were certainly paths to a Liberal win possible, especially if the end 2PP is slightly closer.  So a narrow Labor win seemed to be the most likely outcome, but far from bolted down.

I hope the coverage is useful.  There will be extensive post-count coverage in coming days, probably including the Upper House which I doubt I'll have any time to cover til very late tonight.  There is also great coverage at Poll Bludger.


5:10 pm. Galaxy Exit Poll  A Galaxy exit poll showing primaries of Coalition 43 Labor 38 Green 12 has been reported.  This would imply a 2PP of only 50.5 to Labor, which is right on the tossup line!  (Update: the 2PP has been reported at 51:49).

12:30 pm.  Greens Open vs Full Tickets List. 

Welcome.  Count coverage is starting at 6 pm but I've decided to start on-the-day early because there is something happening that justifies it, which is that the Greens are handing out open how-to-vote cards in several marginal seats.  The impact of this is going to be minor, because most Greens voters do not follow how-to-vote cards, and Greens voters left to make up their own minds are very likely to preference Labor anyway.  The ReachTEL yesterday with Daniel Andrews with a +8.3 net rating from Greens voters to a staggering -60.8 net rating for Napthine underlined this point.

It seems likely that Greens voters were going to preference Labor more strongly this election than in 2010 anyway, probably by about five points, so most likely all this is going to do is cancel it out in the seats that matter and the flow will still be about 80:20. (There were also open Green tickets in about a quarter of seats in 2010, but they were typically rural seats with low Green votes, few of them marginal.)  Also the impact of the action is muted given that a third of the electorate had already voted before today.  (It is however making me feel a little better about not using the "expected 2PP" version of my model in the thread below.)

Anyway I thought I'd put up a list of seats mentioned on Twitter or elsewhere with open Greens preference cards reported (a 1 in the box for the Greens with no further preferences listed) vs those where the full ticket has been distributed.  I believe most are in the latter category (about two-thirds according to The Age), but those where open tickets are being handed out include a lot of marginals.  These lists will be incomplete but hopefully I can pick up most of the marginals.  I'm not so fussed re the safe seats.

This list will be edited frequently so refresh now and then if it's of interest.  Reports can be sent to me on Twitter at @kevinbonham or by email at k_bonham@tassie.net.au or in comments.  To send me a comment you'll need to be registered.  I might lower the drawbridge to anonymous commenters later in the day.

I have as yet seen no reports of open Liberal tickets being handed out in the seats in which they are registered.  There is thus no evidence this is about a deal with the Liberals and it is more likely payback for Labor's refusal to deal with the Greens, or perhaps even an attempt to engineer a hung parliament.  Decisions are supposedly made at branch level but the concentration of marginals with open tickets looks strategic.

Seats marked * are seats that have been considered in play at some stage of the election campaign or are on close margins.  Seats marked # are seats where the card is irrelevant because Greens preferences are not expected to be distributed.

Open Greens Ticket Reported: Bellarine*, Benambra, Bentleigh*, Box Hill, Buninyong*, Carrum*, Caulfield, Forest Hill*, Keysborough,  Mordialloc*, Monbulk*, Narracan, Narre Warren North, Oakleigh, Ringwood*, Rowville, South Barwon*, Warrandyte, Wendouree*, Yan Yean*

Full Greens Ticket Reported: Brunswick#, Cranbourne* (probable - report ambiguous), Eltham*, Essendon, Frankston*, Geelong, Melbourne#, Mt Waverley, Mulgrave, Northcote#, Prahran*.

These lists should be regarded as not entirely confirmed and are based on claims posted on Twitter, in several but not all cases with screenshots.  Huge thanks to those who have sent me reports and also to those who have posted cards/comments on the issue on Twitter without my prompting.

14 comments:

  1. I was handing out HTV cards for the Greens in Mordialloc. Was quite surprised by the open ticket. I had a number of voters eager to take the HTV, but then looking very perplexed when the card just said "1" for LA and "1" for LC.

    David

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  2. Not sure about VIC but in the SA Greens open HTVs are decided well before the election by the local branches and are a common occurrence. I reckon the 'deal' speculation is a whole lot of nothing, just some Labor hacks poking fun.

    I'll think twice if I see Libs handing out those open HTVs in inner Melbourne - but at this stage I'm still convinced those were just Liberals making mischief.

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    1. Yes I agree there is no evidence this action is the result of a deal with the Liberals - the Greens are not gaining anything from it. More plausible factors include payback for Labor not dealing with them for Upper House preferences, and just possibly a desire to cause a hung parliament if the Greens win any inner-city seats.

      The official line is also in this case that these are all branch-level decisions.

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    2. Labor people are tweeting photos of Liberal open HTVs in the seat of Melbourne.

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    3. So far I have only seen images of the lodged open HTV. I have not found photos of a physical copy of an open HTV that has been handed out on the day. Of course a late-in-the-day switch is quite possible but if anyone sees a photo of what is clearly a physical card, let me know.

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  3. I've been handing out in Caulfield for Labor. I watched the Greens people handing out their open ticket, and it clearly confused a lot of their voters, especially the first-timers. I expect a lot of people will put a 1 in the Green box and then "exhaust," which of course is an informal vote. This will cost the Greens, but more importantly it will also cost Labor those preferences. The Greens in their selfish narcissism could yet hand this election to the Libs.

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    1. MrToad, the Greens have a long history of handing out open HTVs. Even if it is some kind of deal, which I highly doubt since the Libs don't seem to be reciprocating, open Green HTVs are nothing new.

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  4. Mitcham is listed as a seat where the Greens have an open HTV, but the seat was abolished in the redistribution (and replaced by Ringwood, which is also listed).

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    1. Thankyou. A free plug in my introduction section for taking the time to correct my inattention there. :)

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  5. I don't think it's a Lib-Green deal. I think it's a unilateral Green decision to punish Labor for not getting into bed with them. Plus they want to maximise the chances of a hung parliament in which they can blackmail Labor into passing their policies such as compulsory veganism and banning shoes.

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  6. Is there a bit of non-monotonicity at work in Prahran? Had Liberal voters switched to Greens, surely that would, as things stand, help the Liberals?

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  7. Kevin,
    In the entirely secure Liberal seat of Warrandyte, Greens htvs were open, in contrast to those handed out at pre-poll which explicitly preferenced Labor and had full preference recommendations.

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  8. So it turns out there was no Green-Liberal deal and all that was a massive Labor beat up?... Why am I not surprised.

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