Australia's Worst Oppositions: How Many Will Win?

Recently I started a Not-A-Poll to determine who readers consider to be Australia's worst opposition in what I have dubbed a "golden age of dreadful Oppositions".  During the polling period the contenders continued to audition for the gong:

* The Victorian Liberals continued with their usual infighting over legal cases related to the Deeming/Pesutto mess but there was also a Brad Battin reshuffle that was none too well received and led to leadership rumblings including speculation that a first termer might become leader.

* Tasmanian Labor had three different positions on the Tasmanian Planning Commission's response to the Macquarie Point stadium proposal in seven days, a record even for them, and none of those positons were worth wasting a press release on.

* The SA Liberals had another ridiculously bad poll, a 34-66 drubbing in a DemosAU poll with a primary vote of just 21%.  Given SA's fondness for independents and lack of extremely safe seats this could conceivably even translate to zero seats (though they will improve by the election just five months away surely? probably? maybe?)  

* The Canberra Liberals floated restrictive conditions for federal candidates in which the candidate would have to hit fundraising targets, apparently a reaction to their 2025 half-Senate candidate being invisible on the campaign trail.  Why anyone would want to raise that much money to run for the ACT Reps seats though is beyond me.  There was also a review into their 2024 election result which for some reason thought regimented how to vote cards in Hare-Clark was a good idea.

* The federal Coalition saw instability with Jacinta Price kicked off the frontbench, Andrew Hastie quitting the frontbench and Barnaby Joyce finally announcing his retirement as Member for New England at the next election while taking potshots at David Littleproud and not exactly hosing down speculation he would join One Nation.  Their polling continues to suck.

* The NSW Liberals were pantsed 60.2-39.8 in the Kiama by-election.  

Anyway the verdict of voters is in and the Victorian Coalition has been deemed by a strong plurality of readers to be Australia's worst opposition!  Which is funny given that they're one of only two that is polling competitively, but the point is they should be doing much better.

We now move on to stage two, which is how many of these oppositions will become the government at or before the next election?  (The "before" is a rider in case there is a mid-term transfer in Tasmania or the ACT)  Considering the form guide here and in order of expected next election:

* The South Australian Liberals are facing the music (which at the moment would be the Dead March from Saul) in March 2026.  Things may improve for them but the improvement would have to be colossal to get close to winning.  Even holding steady would be very good from here.  

* The Victorian Coalition will be up (in November 2026)  against the 12-year old federally dragged ALP currently led by Jacinta Allan, who has very bad personal ratings.  For any competent opposition this would be a walk in the park to a win exceeding 55-45.  This may yet happen but at present they have trailed in five of the six polls since April (around 47-53 at the moment), and were not in an election-winning position in the one they did lead in.  

* The NSW Coalition is up against first-term Premier Chris Minns in March 2027.  There is not much polling and they were polling competitively early in the year but I have the latest Resolve sample as a 41-59 deficit.  The Kiama result did not much to contradict that.  

* The Federal Coalition's next election is expected to be around May 2028, assuming that the Coalition still exists.  It's still very early in the term but at present the Coalition is facing one of the longest and strongest post-re-election honeymoons ever for the Albanese Government, which I currently have leading 56-44 on aggregate.  The Coalition faces a difficult pendulum and a raft of new Labor MPs with personal votes though it's possible a parliamentary expansion that junks the existing pendulum will help them improve their seat share for a given vote slightly.

* Territory Labor are up in August 2028.  Polling is scarce in the NT but at they have their work cut out to win from a base of four Indigenous MPs.  

* Canberra Liberals go to the polls in October 2028.  Again no polling; the ACT continues to be a very difficult place for the Liberals to get enough seats to form government.  Perhaps the diversifying crossbench offers them a slim ray of hope.  

* Queensland Labor will get a go in October 2028.  A couple of recent Resolve samples have actually had them slightly ahead on implied 2PP although this hasn't been confirmed by anyone else.  So far the Queensland opposition are travelling OK but it's a long way to go and unless the federal party loses, federal drag could be a significant problem for them at the election. 

* WA's next election is in far-off March 2029.  At this time Roger Cook's Labor government will be twelve years old and probably still federally dragged so there really ought to be some chance of it losing, but the conservative parties' steps back to competitiveness this year were very modest.  I've seen no real polling in this term, only a supposed Liberal internal poll-shaped-object with red flags for sample size and transparency.

* Tasmanian Labor's next attempt is scheduled for July 2029, but the last three parliaments didn't run full term and this one may not either.  Labor are polling poorly but are up against a Liberal government that will be fifteen years old if it goes full term and that is heavily in minority and facing challenges with a dire budget outlook and its pursuit of a much disliked stadium.  The real problem is that Labor is so scarred by past baggage with the Greens that their approach to forming government appears to consist of being confused about what they stand for while hoping that their vote magically nearly doubles.

The Not-A-Poll open in the sidebar for two months gives you a chance to say how many of these nine oppositions are on the path to victory! (Either winning the next election or forming government before it will count.) But because it is too easy to just say one on the assumption that precisely one of them gets lucky somewhere, if you want to pick one there's an extra challenge - pick which one!

Has it ever been the case before that all the oppositions at a given time were headed for defeat?  Yes it has - the early Howard years were a classic case of federal drag and by the March 2002 demise of the Kerin Liberal government in South Australia, Labor had taken office in every state and territory.  Through til after the October 2004 federal election, there was no opposition in the country that was headed for victory at the end of its current term.  This is the only such case since the start of ACT self-government in 1989.   Also between the March 2018 SA election and the March 2019 NSW election, there was only one opposition (SA Labor) that was on course for victory.