Friday, February 28, 2025

Tasmanian House of Representatives Seat Guide 2025

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This article gives a detailed discussion of the five Tasmanian House of Representatives seats, which will be updated and edited as needed up til election day.  A Tasmania Senate guide will follow much closer to polling day and will be linked here when up and there will be many other federal pages coming.   I will be doing some sort of coverage on election night but at this stage I still don't know where.  I've quit doing coverage for the Mercury.

One seat (Lyons, held by Labor) is hotly in play at this election.  Two others (Liberal-held Bass and Braddon) are volatile historically and of some interest though challenging for Labor to win this time around.  Franklin (Labor) is attracting a little more attention than normal because of a couple of independent attempts.  Clark (Ind) is not considered in play.  

National polling as I start this article has been suggesting the sort of swing to the Coalition that if uniform should see them win Lyons, with Bass out of serious danger and Braddon out of the question for Labor.  However Tasmania has become detached from national patterns in recent years with national swing only predicting Tasmania's two-party seat result perfectly once in the last 33 years (and in recent years Labor tending to do worse in swing terms than the national swing).   Long Labor's strongest state on a 2PP basis, Tasmania ceased to be so in 2022 as demographic transition in low-education and older-voter areas has favoured the Liberal Party.  

State politics is also not a reliable predictor of federal politics as Tasmanian voters frequently vote very differently at the two levels.  For what it's worth, the now eleven-year-old Rockliff Liberal Government suffered a large swing against it in the early 2024 election, but was able to survive in minority with support from independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network.  The JLN, after polling well in the 2022 Reps election, has had severe internal issues and appears to be focusing on the Senate.

Labor mostly performed poorly (again) in northern Tasmania in 2022, excepting Bass where it put up some fight thanks mainly to the religious right targeting the Liberal incumbent.  It did, however, have candidate problems in both Lyons and Braddon.  

For more details on seats and their history see also the Poll Bludger and Tally Room guides.

A section on Section 44 Eligibility will be added if any candidates appear to have question marks, and other general features will be added as I go.

I am only including full detail of polls and models released from October 2024 onwards.  The YouGov MRP model uses a "generic ballot" choice of ALP, Liberal, Green, One Nation, IND, other, which seems to have produced high figures for One Nation and independent in many areas

Candidate Tally

In 2022 Tasmania had a record 44 candidates.  The tally of declared runners as known to me, as of 28 Feb, is 21.

Liberal 5 (=)
Labor 4 (-1, but expected to be endorsed)
Green 5 (=)
IND/unendorsed 5 (+2)
Aus Citizens 2 (+2)

No candidates yet released: Trumpet of Patriots (5 as UAP in 2022), ON (5), AJP (5), Libertarian (5), JLN (4), Local Party (2 - folded)
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Note for candidates: as this page has to cover all five seats, the candidate profiles will be kept to a link (if I can find one) and one to a few lines except for (i) incumbents, (ii) major party candidates, (iii) any  candidate who I identify as a credible chance to win based on polling or strong subjective evidence (iv) any candidate who I consider unusually notable or hilarious.  

Candidates may contact me once only a minimum of one week before polling day to request a change in the link (if any) that their name goes to.  No other changes will be considered except in cases of clear factual errors. Length of main candidate profiles is influenced by the volume of available material/dirt. Ordering of other candidates is influenced by past election results for their parties in the seat.  

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Bass (Liberal, 1.4%)

Geography: North-eastern Tasmania, consisting mostly of urban Launceston and also the rural north-east with major centres including Scottsdale and Bridport.

History:  Something very strange happened in Bass in 2022 - the incumbent retained! Previously Bass was "the ejector seat of Australian politics", having changed parties at eight of the last 11 elections, and having had the most MPs of any Australian federal seat. It is among the  most volatile seats in Australia in swing terms in recent elections.  The carnage started when Liberal Warwick Smith lost the seat by 40 votes, ending a 17-year Liberal tenure, in 1993.  He won it back in 1996 and lost it again by 78 votes in 1998. Forestry issues played some role in the Liberal wins in 2004 and 2013 but primarily Bass is won and lost in the suburbs of Launceston. The southern and eastern suburbs have been especially volatile in recent elections but in 2019 usually rusted-on booths in the north-eastern suburbs joined the party too.  In 2016 Andrew Nikolic (Lib) was defeated after a single term, with the crushing loss being generally attributed to health issues and also to a GetUp! campaign supported by left-wing locals displeased with Nikolic's abrasive style.  With all these issues out of the mix in 2019 (but with Labor running a campaign perceived as Hobart-centred) there was a big swing back and the Liberals recaptured the seat from Ross Hart (Labor) by 563 votes.  Bridget Archer retained in 2022 with a small 2PP swing in her favour.  

Incumbent: The Liberal MP for Bass is Bridget Archer.  Archer is the former Mayor of industrial George Town.  She was a minor candidate for the Liberals at the 2018 state election.  She was then endorsed for the federal election and won the seat in 2019.  Archer is by far the most moderate remaining federal Liberal MHR after all her fellow travellers were wiped out in the 2022 tealwash.  She has crossed the floor or at least not voted with her party dozens of times - on issues including cashless debit welfare cards (abstained), the now-created federal anti-corruption commission, Labor's social media ban for under-16s, censuring Scott Morrison, climate and the Coalition's proposed Royal Commission into child abuse in Indigenous communities.  Most significantly she was one of five Liberals to insert protections for transgender students into the Morrison government's Religious Discrimination Bill, resulting in the Bill's withdrawal.  

Archer's voting behaviour has created ripples with some concerns that she's so critical of the party's direction that she's effectively an independent, including claims (denied by him but widely believed by insiders) that adjacent incumbent Gavin Pearce had made a failed attempt to blow up her preselection.  PM Albanese has tried to neutralise Archer's maverick appeal by saying she's a "good person" in a "bad party", claiming that her floor-crossing doesn't change anything.  But in the religious discrimination law case it did, and there is obvious potential if there is a hung or even nearly hung parliament for Archer to become more powerful.   

Main challenger: The Labor candidate is Jess Teesdale, who has worked as a teacher and numeracy coach in the Northern Territory (including remote communities in Arnhem Land) and Tasmania, most recently at Launceston's Indie School and previously at Riverside Primary and Prospect High.  She is also a basketball coach and teaches English to adults.  Teesdale grew up in Launceston before moving to the NT for work reasons then returned to Tasmania, also completing a Masters of Education through Edith Cowan University along the way.  Teesdale is a new candidate whose run for Bass was announced in December 2024.  Teesdale has been strongly endorsed by Labor state MHA and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, former federal MP for the seat.  (I believe there is some kind of party work or office connection between the two but am rusty on the details.)  She is also a basketball coach, and in the crossover-of-interests department I was delighted to hear that the candidate is an advocate and organiser of local school chess programs!

Other declared candidates:

Charlene McLennan (Green): lawyer specialising in domestic and family violence and legal aid
Caroline Larner (Aus Citizens) registered nurse and plant nursery worker, frequent past candidate for party

The Australian Citizens Party is the former Citizens Electoral Council, a Lyndon La Rouche movement conspiracy outfit.  

Polling/Modelling (Voting Intention)

1.  EMRS Nov 5-14 2024 The Australian reported the Liberals were holding the seat in this probably c. 200 vote sample, with no details

2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Lib 44 ALP 27 Green 12 others 17 2PP 54-46 to Liberals.  (The autumn and winter MRPs had the Liberals ahead 52-48).

3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Lib 36.8 ALP 27.8 Grn 12.3 ON 11.2 IND 9.9 other 2 2PP 52.1-47.9 to Liberals

Prospects: A Labor win would be an upset.  Bass's history of throwing incumbents to the devils means it can never be taken for granted (especially not while on a small margin), but the swingiest parts of Bass have been in a cost of living crisis for decades, so it offers little promise of a swing to government.  This has been reflected by Labor taking until December to announce a candidate amid a general view that Archer is unbeatable this time around.  

To the extent that that view is based on Archer's voting behaviour it is probably exaggerated, since the issues Archer crosses the floor on are generally tealish type concerns and Bass doesn't have that much of an inner city.  Also, Archer's past form didn't stop 87% of Green voters preferencing Labor in the seat in 2022.  But Tasmanian voters do respect not toeing the party line.  


Braddon (Liberal, 8.0%)

Geography: North-west and western Tasmania, including the small regional cities of Devonport and Burnie and the large town of Ulverstone, the rural north-west (Smithton, Wynyard) and the west coast mining and tourism towns (Queenstown, Zeehan, Strahan)

History: Decades ago the north-west was infamously socially conservative, but Braddon has changed greatly on that front in the last 25 years.  It remains a seat with resource politics often front and centre.  Braddon was Liberal-held from 1975 to 1998 but has since become another swinging and usually marginal seat, changing hands at six of the last nine general elections, including three in a row from 2013 to 2019.  In 2022 however it recorded its most lopsided result since 1990.  

Labor's Justine Keay won the seat from the Liberals' rather unpopular incumbent Brett Whiteley in 2016 but her tenure was disrupted by having to contest a mid-term by-election caused by Section 44 issues.  Keay won but by Labor's result was mediocre.  The Liberals had a big win in Braddon in 2019 and the seat has rarely been in the headlines since.  It was bigger in 2022 when Labor ran a low-profile candidate who was revealed to have a decades-old drug trafficking conviction, in among the worst seats in the country to have one in.  By Tasmanian standards, Braddon detested the Voice referendum with over 72% giving it the thumbs down.  

Vacancy: Braddon is vacant following the retirement of two-term MP Gavin Pearce, citing family reasons and exhaustion.  The reported conflict with Bridget Archer, though denied by Pearce, does leave a perception of some discontent with politics as well.  

Liberal Candidate: The new Liberal candidate is Mal Hingston.  Hingston is a defence contractor delivering radar systems for the ADF, and has also worked in the mining industry and in civil engineering.  Intriguingly he "has focused on project recovery of distressed projects" which sounds like quite the qualifiication for political life.  I am not aware of any previous political form.  Hingston has been praised by Pearce as a potential successor.  

Main challenger: The Labor challenger is Anne Urquhart, Labor Senator from 2011 since being elected at the 2010 half-Senate election.   Prior to politics, Urquhart was a very long-serving AMWU state president and later secretary, having started her union career as a delegate at the Ulverstone potato factory.  She has been Labor's Chief Whip in the Senate since 2016 and has had various other roles that are noted here.  She is also a past President of the state party and is Labor's "duty Senator" for Braddon, meaning she has been the Senator tasked with representing Braddon and commenting on its issues.  Urquhart - long a major figure in the Tasmanian ALP left - has rarely been controversial but did ruffle some feathers in 2021 with her support for David O'Byrne, firstly in the leadership contest and then following his forced resignation from caucus.     (For more re Urquhart see article here)

Other declared candidates (so far):

Erin Morrow (Greens) psychologist with background in mental health care and organisational psychology, 2024 minor state Braddon candidate
Adam Martin (Independent) poultry farmer, carpenter and builder, involved in federal lobbying for not-for-profits
Gatty Burnett (unregistered Tasmanians Now) former youth worker,  didn't entirely like being called a "social media conspiracy theorist" last time which won't stop me doing it again, longer profile in Murchison 2023 guide.  Linkedin says "podcast host" but I can only find one episode.

Tasmanians Now is the branding for Burnett and Senate candidate Melissa Wells; I am unsure if there's more than two of them.  The party (?) claims Tasmania is rotten and corrupt in an article that calls Burnett a "Lambie-baiting firebrand".    

Adam Martin was approached by the Advocate after liking Facebook comments that said Port Arthur murderer Martin Bryant was framed.  His defence was verging on Katteresque: "I just haven't followed that, really, and that's all I've got to say on it"  Of perhaps more substance for readers of this page, the candidate has detailed electoral reform policies including a stringent version of truth in advertising where repeat offenders could have their seats vacated (I don't support this!).  

Polling/Modelling (Voting Intention)

1.  EMRS Nov 5-14  2024 sample size probably c. 200.  Lib 44 ALP 27 Grn 9 JLN 7 (apparently not running) IND, ON 4.  2PP would be about 56-44 to Liberal

2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Lib 46 ALP 22 Green 7 others 25 2PP 59-41 to Liberals.  (The autumn and winter MRPs had the Liberals ahead 57-43).

3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Lib 41.6 ALP 22.1 IND 12.9 ON 11.1 GRN 9.5 other 3.4 2PP 58.1-41.9 to Liberals

Prospects:  The margin is inflated but so what?  Braddon is on paper closer than the 2022 margin indicates, given that it is vacant and that Labor is running an experienced Senator after its disaster here last time.  These factors could be worth at least half of the margin between them.  But even so Braddon has become a very difficult electorate for Labor and for a first-term government to take a seat on an 8% margin would be extraordinary.  There's a good chance Urquhart running can make Labor poll respectably and a swing to them would not surprise, but actually winning seems too hard.  The Macquarie Harbour salmon issue in this electorate is not helping, with uncertainty about the Commonwealth's management of the threats salmon farming poses to the endangered Maugean Skate playing into the sort of wedge politics we have seen in Tasmania over forestry in the past.   Strahan will be a booth to watch on election night.  

Adam Martin has some Craig Garland like policy interests (as well it seems as some Craig Garland like scruffy social media edges) and indies have polled handily in this seat in recent times (frequently beating the Greens at various levels), but this one will be between the major parties.  

Clark (Ind, 20.8% vs ALP)

Geography: Western shore Hobart.  Includes two very different halves - the working-class Glenorchy half which used to be strongly pro-Labor, and the Hobart City half which is one of the greenest areas in Australia (with small pockets of strong Liberal support). 

History: After winning the seat from the Liberals in 1987, Labor's Duncan Kerr held the seat for 23 years.  On his retirement Labor flubbed both the preselection and the campaign, resulting in independent Andrew Wilkie narrowly winning the seat on preferences from third place.  Wilkie has since been re-elected four times with massive margins and in 2019 managed to win on primary votes alone (just).   The seat has had the lowest combined major party primary at the last three elections in a row.  This independent voting spread to state level in 2021, with Kristie Johnston elected to state parliament as a rather Wilkie-like independent and Labor reduced to a feeble 22% and just one seat out of five.  In 2024 Labor did better and the indie vote declined slightly but Johnston was again elected.  

Incumbent: Andrew Wilkie is a former army officer and intelligence analyst who blew the whistle over the Howard government's support for invading Iraq. He ran for the Greens in Bennelong 2004 and Tasmania Senate 2007 then left said party, narrowly missing a seat in the Tasmanian House of Assembly as an independent in 2010.  Later that year he won Denison.

Wilkie initially supported the Gillard Labor government in the 2010-3 hung parliament but withdrew support after the government did not follow through on its agreements with him concerning poker-machine precommitment.  Wilkie has often again been blessed with close numbers from 2016 on and there was especially a perception that the PM's door was always open in the hung parliament end of the 2016-9 term. In the current parliament the larger crossbench has made his role less prominent.

Wilkie is a generally left-wing independent with forthright, often black-and-white moral views on issues, and whose major issues have included gambling, asylum seekers and health services..  He was also the first plaintiff in one of two failed legal challenges to the holding of the same-sex marriage "postal survey".  Polling in the 2016 leadup showed very high approval ratings of Wilkie; none has been seen since perhaps because the answer is obvious.  Early in his career Wilkie rarely endorsed other candidates but in recent years it has become very common for him to do so.  

Labor Challenger: As of 6 pm 28 Feb Labor have so lost interest in recovering the precious that the name of their latest lamb to the slaughter is unknown!

Liberal Challenger: Liberal candidate Marilena De Florio is a fashion designer and label owner who has previously worked as a RAAF medic and an administrator and planning officer in the Tasmanian Health Department.  Di Florio attracted attention in 2023 when a tote bag carrying a Yes Stadium message was pulled from the Tasmanian Fashion Runway  Di Florio ran for a Glenorchy councillor vacancy in a 2024 by-election but finished third in a large field (the winner is or was a member of the Federation Party, now Trumpet of Patriots!)

Other declared candidates (so far):

Janet Shelley (Green): Director of Sustainability at the Department of Climate Change, Energy the Environment and Water, previously at Bureau of Meteorology.  Greens candidate for seat in 2022, also candidate for Clark 2024 and Elwick 2024 (both state)

Polling/Modelling (voting intention):

MRP models are likely to be very inaccurate in Clark as the seat is unique in being a very left inner city seat that is held by an independent rather than Labor or the Greens.  Seat polling has also done poorly here in the past where it has failed to mention Wilkie by name.  

1. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Others (would be mostly Wilkie) 51 ALP 27 Lib 10 Green 13, 2CP 68-32 Wilkie vs ALP.  The Labor primary is probably too high here and the Liberal primary is too low.  (Wilkie led 72-28 in the autumn MRP and 61-39 in the winter one, the former had the Liberal primary on 4!)

2. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Ind (would be mostly Wilkie) 40.1 ALP 22.8 Lib 17.9 Green 15.4 ON 3.3 other 0.4  2CP 62.8-37.8 to Wilkie vs ALP.  

Prospects: Wilkie retain. Wilkie was taken to preferences in 2022 but the main reason for that was a stronger than usual performance by the Greens, whose candidate Janet Shelley is back for another shot after a couple of good results last year too.  With Wilkie having an enormous primary vote buffer but not even needing to top the primary count to win, the only points of interest here will be (i) whether Wilkie's vote softens significantly (ii) the exclusion order for places 2-3.  (There is potential for the Liberals to make the top two against Wilkie, but also they were less than 3% off being overtaken by the Greens for third in 2022.)  

Franklin (Labor, 13.7%)

Geography: An oddly shaped electorate containing the eastern shore Hobart suburbs within the Clarence council area, and also the Kingborough area, D'Entrecasteaux Channel and Huon Valley areas on the other side of the river.

History: Franklin has been won by Labor at every election since the 1993 retirement of Bruce Goodluck, who had held the seat for the Liberals since 1975 (often by force of personality or electorate work rather than by party identification).  Franklin often attracts a high Greens vote, but not enough to threaten to win the seat. It was vaguely competitive when previous incumbent Harry Quick departed but since then Julie Collins has held it comfortably, assisted at times by the Liberal Party using the seat as a dumping ground for embarrassingly poor candidates.  Franklin has been won by the party forming government only four times at the last fifteen elections.  It was a slightly surprising if very narrow Yes vote in the Voice referendum.

Incumbent: Julie Collins is a six-term incumbent who served as a Minister in various portfolios (including Social Services) under both Gillard and Rudd in the 2010-13 parliament.  She is currently Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and Minister for Small Business.  She earlier served in the Gillard and second Rudd governments as Minister for Community Services, Minister for Indigenous Employment and Economic Development, Minister for the Status of Women and Minister for Housing and Homelessness.

ReachTEL polling in the 2016 leadup showed quite strong personal ratings for Collins but also a fairly high non-recognition rate, suggesting that her profile had been low in Opposition.  I am not aware of any more recent polling of her approval.  In 2013 a remarkably tongue-tied 2010 press conference was used by the Liberals in an attack ad but that was about the last notably negative publicity that Collins ever had.  These days she stands out as a respected experienced party figure (for instance representing the party on the ABC's state election night panel).  

Liberal Challenger: Josh Garvin is a current Federal Vice-President and recent Tasmanian President of the Young Liberals and has worked as a staffer for state MP Madeleine Ogilvie.  He is also a law graduate and church volunteer.  He ran for the Liberals for this seat in the 2024 state election polling 972 votes.  Garvin answered effectively yes to more questions than Eric Abetz on the Australian Christian Lobby questionnaire for the state election.  (I do give him some goth points for "called to dark places" in his Dark MOFO answer though).  

Other declared candidates (so far):

Owen Fitzgerald (Greens) advisor to Nick McKim, Delegate to Change the World 2024 New York, climate school strikes organiser, minor Greens candidate 2024 state election

Peter George (Independent) Climate200-backed anti-salmon-farm campaigner, veteran former ABC foreign correspondent and Four Corners reporter/producer, also parliamentary reporter (on the steps of Parliament House when Whitlam was sacked!)

Brendan Blomeley (Independent) Mayor of Clarence (elected 2022), CEO Tas Racing Club, former Chief of Staff to David Bushby, former corporate affairs manager at Federal Group, golliwog apologist etc 

Blomeley is a former Liberal who was generally placed on the conservative right of the party.  
He fell out with the party shortly after he was rejected for Senate preselection after failing to disclose he had been charged with breaching an AVO in 2017 (the charge was dismissed).  Going into the 2024 state election he entertained media comments that he was considering running as an independent.  This resulted in his membership being deemed to have ceased and attempts to broker a solution so he could be readmitted failed.  And here we are.  

Polling (voting intention):

1.  EMRS Nov 5-14  2024 sample size probably c. 200.  Incomplete report - ALP 36 Lib 35 Green 11 IND 11.  2PP would be about 55-45 to Labor.

2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 ALP 41 Lib 31 Green 18 Others 9 (low).  2PP 63-37 to ALP.  (In autumn 65-35 and in winter 61-39).  

3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 ALP 36.1 Lib 30.7 Grn 14.3 ON 8.2 (too high) IND 6.4 (too low) other 4.1  2PP 56-44 to Labor but Green prefs flow very strongly to Labor here so would be more.

Prospects: Bit spicier than usual  Franklin, for years a boring Labor hold, has attracted some attention this time around because it has not one but two potentially significant independents.  That has turned attention to Labor's low primary in the seat last time (just 36.7%).  Labor's vote was deflated then by the Lambie Network and also by Anna Bateman running as a Wilkie-endorsed candidate for the enthusiastic but confused Local Party (which has folded) so it's not clear that the indies will knock it much lower, especially as they're not really pitching to Labor voters.  The once rusted-on outer suburb booths for Labor on the outer eastern shore (Risdon Vale,  Rokeby. Clarendon Vale) are also weakening, but the inner-suburban eastern-shore booths are at the same time shifting left.

The smokie scenario getting attention here is Peter George.  If George gets enough of the seat's high Green vote to jump them (which is challenging) he might in theory pass the Liberals and we saw this movie before in Denison 2010. But the comparison seems strained.  Denison was vacant with a lazy and terrible Labor campaign and while some of Franklin has obvious teal appeal, it is a bitty electorate that is hard for an indie to poll well in enough of.  The Green vote here also easily withstood a teal challenge at the state election; in fact they got quite close to two state seats in Franklin.  George needs to get a far higher vote than Bateman's 5% on a similar platform to be competitive, but even 15% could be enough.  That is, assuming he gets Liberal preferences, but the Liberals will come under serious pressure from the salmon and forestry industries to put Labor above him on their card, which would surely be the end of this.  I also just don't think salmon is that big an issue here and suspect everyone who cares about it was already not voting for the major parties.  Climate 200 have thrown in $30,000; I think if they thought it was a big chance they would be throwing in much more.  

Blomeley is a Mayor but not a long-serving one, and only won the position narrowly as a vacancy.  It seems very doubtful that he would get double figures (the Blomleyologists at Fontcast put him on deposit back and out) and even if he did the path to win would be much harder than for George.  

The Greens also have designs on this seat but they would need a 3CP swing from Labor to them of over 10%, and also to have the Liberals not fall into third.  They've talked it up as winnable but that's a typical Greens stretch; try again when Collins retires perhaps.  

The Liberals may get some sort of 2PP swing but some of the models of that look exaggerated.

Lyons (Labor, 0.9%)

Geography: A mainly rural seat including the large regional town of New Norfolk, the fringes of Hobart and Launceston, and numerous small towns dotted across the centre and east of the state.  Lyons has a sharply north-south voting divide, with the northern part much more pro-Liberal.

History: Partly because of the difficulty of building name recognition in a seat with so many scattered communities, Lyons (formerly Wilmot) had only three incumbents (two Labor, one Liberal) between 1946 and 2013. Long-serving Labor MP Dick Adams was dislodged by the nation's largest swing caused by anger over the state's forestry "peace deal" in 2013 (having survived a similar scare in 2004) but his replacement Eric Hutchinson lasted only one term before Brian Mitchell regained the seat for Labor.  

Lyons often votes similarly to Bass and Braddon but with a little bit extra for Labor, and could have been very close at the 2019 election, but the Liberal candidate was disendorsed with her name on the ballot paper for very offensive social media remarks.  The boot was somewhat on the other foot in 2022 when Mitchell's own social media form came under scrutiny with some off-colour posts about women used against him.  The seat is another where demographic transition is making life tougher for Labor than in the Adams days.  

Vacancy: Lyons is vacant following the retirement of Mitchell.  A former journalist/editor and later media consultant, Brian Mitchell did not fit the mould of a typical winner of this rural seat, but he did at least have one or more appropriate hats and a larrikin style.   Initially Mitchell fared well and he easily retained the seat in 2019, but after the 2022 campaign he was widely expected to lose the rematch with Bower if he ran again.  He has given way to White very gracefully.  

Labor Candidate:  Labor's star candidate for Lyons is Rebecca White, a state MHA for the seat from 2010-2024 including seven years as Opposition Leader.  White was first elected by dislodging a Labor incumbent (rare under the then 25-seat system) and polled very high personal votes thereafter.  She led the state party from 2017 until the 2024 election loss, except for a very brief and ill-fated David O'Byrne leadership after the 2021 election.  White polled extremely high personal ratings in the leadup to the 2018 election and was often more competitive than the average Opposition Leader in EMRS preferred premier ratings.  She is a very strong performer in head-to-head candidate debates. On her watch the party did successfully rebuild in the 2018 election (without winning) then suffered a bad loss caused by infighting and against a very popular COVID-assisted incumbent in 2021.  In 2024 the Liberal Government suffered a large swing but Labor did not pick up much.  For more detailed comments see here.  

Liberal challenger: Susie Bower is the re-endorsed Liberal candidate after almost winning in 2022.  Bower is the Chief Executive Officer of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone.  She was a Meander Valley councillor before resigning to focus on a year-long campaign for Lyons.  She is also a former University lecturer in business and earlier served for ten years as Director of Community and Economic Development at Dorset Council.  Bower was a candidate for the Liberals at the 2021 state election but her 2517 votes was the lowest of the six Liberal candidates, including being outpolled by fellow councillor Stephanie Cameron despite Cameron's weaker local council vote-getting record.  She obtained a 4.3% 2PP swing in 2022 though much of this was because the previous Liberal candidate had been disendorsed.  

Bower is obviously out there working the electorate but hasn't been especially high profile in the leadup, except for this one for the wrong reasons.  Asked why she was running for a party that was stressing cost of living but had a record in government of most economic growth flowing to high-income earners, Bower wasn't able to answer.  (It sounds even worse than it reads: from about 1:10 in here - compare White at about 12 mins in, who is polished, across her federal brief and adept at sidestepping tricky questions)

Other declared candidates (so far):

Alastair Allan (Greens) Antarctic and marine campaigner at Bob Brown Foundation, former Sea Shepherd captain, minor Greens candidate in 2024 state election.  
Michael Phibbs (Aus Citizens) Diesel fitter and landscaper, support candidate to Larner in Tas Senate 2007

The Australian Citizens Party is the former Citizens Electoral Council, a Lyndon La Rouche movement conspiracy outfit.  

Polling/Modelling (Voting Intention)

1.  EMRS Nov 5-14  2024 sample size probably c. 200.  Incomplete report - without candidates named Lib 31 ALP 34  Green 11 IND 7 JLN 4, with major party candidates named 40-31-9-8-? . White would win easily, probably c. 54-46 and 57-43 to ALP respectively.

2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Lib 42 ALP 26 Green 9 other 24 (that's too high if JLN isn't running).  2PP 54-46 to Liberal. (Earlier 50-50 in autumn 2024 and 54-46 in winter)

3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Lib 38.1 ALP 26.5 ON 12.5 Grn 10.8 IND 6.8 other 3.7  2PP 54.4 to Liberal.

Assessment:  The big one, could go either way Lyons is attracting unprecedented attention with thoughts that whoever wins it may just win the nation.  From a national overview picture it is easy to argue that a seat with low education levels and its share of money-stressed outer suburbia is simply toast at the moment and this is why the MRP models have Labor losing heavily.  I think it's more complex than that: the 0.9% margin in 2022 was affected by Mitchell's troubled campaign, and Labor have a higher profile candidate (an obvious potential minister) than a mere sitting backbencher this time around.  

The counter-argument re White's appeal is that she did lose three elections as leader, even if at least one of those wasn't really winnable, and her huge personal votes have come on tickets with modest supporting firepower, so her state career is not conclusive evidence that she can knock this one out of the park.  But as Bower's radio gaffe has already shown, White is the more experienced candidate in what has become a challenging seat for the government.  

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Poll Roundup: Outliers At Thirty Paces

2PP Aggregate (Last-Election Preferences) 50.4 to Coalition (-0.2 in last four weeks)
With One Nation Adjustment (recommended) 50.9 to Coalition
If polls are accurate, either side could win election "held now", probably well into minority



It was just about time for another one of these articles anyway but we've had some extra fun in the last few days with something we've not had for a while, big outliers!  Firstly a 55-45 to Coalition by respondent preferences from Resolve (52-48 last election) and secondly a 51-49 to Labor by respondent preferences from Morgan (53-47 last election). Resolve was the worst headline 2PP of the term for Labor by far, while Morgan was Labor's first headline 2PP lead from anyone since late November, and their first lead from anyone who wasn't Morgan since early October.   Morgan of course put it down to the interest rates cut.  Who to believe?  My aggregate says neither. The net impact of these two plus Freshwater was that Labor improved its standing in my estimate by 0.001%.  

Resolve had Labor on 25 Coalition 39 Greens 13 One Nation 9 Independent 9 others 4.  Resolve has typically had the Labor vote lower than other pollsters lately and this reading is the lowest I'm aware of Labor ever recording from anyone in a federal poll.  The primary vote gap of 14% is the largest of the term from anyone.  Resolve offers a generic Independent option everywhere between campaigns which tends to inflate the independent vote compared to what they'd actually get at an election, until we know who is actually on the ballot papers.  This probably affects their estimate of the ALP primary.  Resolve's One Nation estimate of 9% on the same basis may seem very large, but don't adjust your set, this is One Nation's third 9% in recent weeks, discussed further below.  

Monday, February 24, 2025

WA Liberals Threaten To Bring Back Malapportionment

I'm aiming to have a federal polling roundup out tomorrow or so to deal with that Resolve 55-45, that YouGov MRP and other recent stories, but firstly I should comment about and condemn a disappointing development in the WA election campaign.  

Yesterday the WA Liberal leader Libby Mettam promised that the party would seek to reintroduce WA's regional Legislative Council system if elected.  This system was severely malapportioned, was an affront to one-vote one-value, and was an affront to democracy itself and to almost every Western Australian voter.  It has been the work of decades to evict the last cases of stone age malapportionment from the Australian state houses.  Any party that wants to go back there in 2025 is not merely unfit for Government.  It is also unfit for Opposition ... which suits the Liberals quite well at the moment, since they're not one.

WA has had a series of malapportioned Legislative Council systems where, in the supposed name of rural representation, rural areas were overweighted such that votes in them carried a few to several times the weight of those cast in Perth.  This was the case in the system of half-in half-out single-seat elections between 1965 and 1986, again for the first regional multi-seat system (1987-2005, 4x5+2x7 member seats) and somehow even worse in the second (2008-2021, 6x6 member seats).   

The effect of rural malapportionment in the Council through the multi-seat era has been to skew it in favour of the conservatives.  As an average of the nine elections held under such systems, Labor has won 41.1% of the vote and 41.4% of the seats.  The combined Liberal and National parties (sometimes running entirely independently, sometimes as joint tickets) have won 39.8% of the vote but 46.8% of the seats.  One expects that in a system with six members per electorate the major parties will each be over-represented by a few percent.  Instead, one side has been over-represented by 7%, the other barely at all.

Friday, February 21, 2025

EMRS: New Poll More Similar To Last Election

EMRS Lib 34 (-1) ALP 30 (-1) Grn 13 (-1) JLN 8 (+2) IND 12 (+1) other 3 (=)
IND likely to be slightly overstated at expense of others.
Liberals would probably be largest party in election "held now"
Possible seat outcome for this poll Lib 15 ALP 11 Grn 5 IND 3 JLN 1

A new EMRS poll is up for Tasmania.  The November poll saw some signs of the long-struggling Labor opposition finally making some progress but this poll is more similar to the previous election.  Compared to the election, and after adjusting for the generic "independent" vote being somewhat overstated, Labor and the Jacqui Lambie Network are up slightly at the expense of the Liberals.  However the Lambie Network has imploded in the parliament and the most recent stated intention of Jacqui Lambie was to re-endorse only her sole remaining MP, Andrew Jenner.  Thus, it is not clear the robust polling for the JLN brand (which appeals strongly to a low-information cohort dominated by working-class blokes) actually means anything.

The leadership figures show that both Jeremy Rockliff and Dean Winter have taken a net favourability hit compared with the November poll, with Rockliff on a net rating of +10 (36-25 with the +10 being after rounding, down five points) and Winter on a net +6 (18-11 ditto, down 8).  These net numbers are still acceptable for both, but Winter still has a recognition problem especially in the north - something that is being picked up by EMRS's approach of not stating the role of the person who they are testing recognition for.  In fact, this sample has an even higher "never heard of" score for Winter (27%) than the previous 18%, which itself raised a few eyebrows.  This said, firstly it is possible some voters could have a strong opinion either way of 'the new Tasmanian Labor leader guy' without actually knowing his name, so the 27% may be an overestimate.  Also, it isn't catastrophic; the example I always quote is that 39% of NSW voters could not identify Barry O'Farrell as Premier in one poll after he had been Premier for a year and a half.  However this is consistent with a general issue of State Labor lacking profile and cut-through across the whole state that also dogged it during the 2024 campaign.  Jeremy Rockliff has also made a minor gain on preferred Premier (which favours incumbents), his lead now out to an acceptable 44-34 after shrinking to 43-37 last poll.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Preferences Help Non-Majors Beat Major Parties Far More Than The Other Way Around

This article is about single-member electorates, and cases where preferences result in someone who did not lead on primaries winning the seat, and how this affects battles between the major parties and candidates from outside the major parties ("non-majors") for seats.  

I've written a few articles on here in which I discuss mistaken views held by many Australian supporters of minor right-wing parties on social media.  Many of them rail against preferential voting, which they claim helps major parties to maintain a "duopoly" or "uniparty".  They often support scrapping preferences, although this would make it pointless to vote for the parties they support.  I've pointed out in these discussions that actually in the 2022 election, nine non-major candidates were elected from outside the parliament by beating one major party with help from the preferences of the other.  If there were no preferences, such candidates would need to rely on very organised strategic voting for any chance of winning.  Probably many would have lost.

Despite this, people keep claiming that the major parties conspire to keep smaller parties out of parliament by doing preference deals with each other so that if a smaller party leads on primaries the majors can beat them on preferences.  The supposed prime example is the defeat of Pauline Hanson in Blair 1998.  But the fact is that Hanson's loss was actually an unusual case, and examples of both majors cross-recommending against a competitive opponent are nowadays rare.  Indeed, including state elections, even One Nation has more often beaten majors from behind thanks to preference flows than led on preferences and lost, by a margin of 9 cases to 4.

I thought I would compile a list of all the cases I could find in single seat elections since 1990 (state, federal and territory) where either a major party has led on primary votes but been beaten by a non-major, or the other way around.  What I find is that non-majors beating majors by overtaking a major party primary vote leader on preferences is about nine times more common than the reverse.  

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Western Australia 2025: Can The Liberals Get Back To 2017?

There hasn't been a lot of polling to talk about for the WA 2025 state election but I just thought I should do a quickish writeup on a general view of this election, which Labor is universally expected to win.  In 2017 the Barnett Liberal Government suffered what was at the time a historically lopsided dumping, losing the 2PP 44.5-55.5, with the new Labor government of Mark McGowan winning 41 seats to 13 for the Liberals and 5 for the Nationals.  Some people were more surprised when this outcome loomed than they should have been; the state government was eight years old and federally dragged, and signs of its doom had been growing in the polling over years. 

2021 then saw WA become a one-party state, with McGowan polling through the roof and then some and a rabble of an opposition hopelessly tied to unpalatable views on COVID management.  Now McGowan has moved on and COVID politics have faded, and now it's Labor who have an eight year old government that's facing the headwinds from Canberra.  And yet the polling picture so far is that the Liberal and WA National parties are not yet sure to get back to where they were in 2017.  

Thursday, February 13, 2025

How Might Minor Right Parties Win More Federal Seats?

This article covers a few recent things I've had my eye on in terms of the Australian minor right movement's attempts to win more federal seats.  By "minor right" I primarily mean parties like One Nation, Libertarians, United Australia, the current version of Family First and so on.  In the broadest sense the term includes these parties plus Australian Christians, Australian Citizens, Gerard Rennick People First, Katters Australian Party, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Great Australian Party, Trumpet of Patriots (yes that's a thing, nee Australian Federation Party), the federally unregistered Democratic Labour Party, the unregistered AustraliaOne and Reignite Democracy Australia and also unregistered "don't call us antivax" parties like HEART and Health Australia.  

That's a lot of parties.  Some of these parties have legitimate reason to exist independently - Australian Christians and Libertarians each represent an ideology (though how many Australian Libertarians actually believe in it as opposed to being random culture warriors or Liberal Right refugees is another question).  KAP at federal level is basically a vehicle for a single de facto independent and Shooters Fishers and Farmers represents a specific set of interest groups.  But most of the rest fall broadly into the same nationalist/populist/conspiracist/Trumpist/culture-warrior basket and have no reason for independent existence other than that they just can't bang the rocks together.   So this is one of the problems - the Australian minor right is a rabble.  So how do they become more successful?

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Prahran and Werribee By-Elections Live

Prahran (Grn vs Lib 12.0%)
Vacancy for resignation of Sam Hibbins (Grn/IND)
Liberal gain from Green/IND (called Sunday 4:20 pm)

Werribee (ALP vs Lib 10.9%)
Vacancy for resignation of Tim Pallas (ALP)
Labor retain (called Thursday 3:30 pm)
----

Distributions: Both preference distributions have been posted and I don't know if there is any scope for further changes so for now it looks like the Liberals have won the primary vote count in Prahran by one vote.  In Prahran, the lead changed a few times through the distribution, and going into the Lupton exclusion the Greens were still ahead. However, that exclusion flowed 63.7% to Liberal.  I have heard from scrutineers that the flow from 1 Lupton votes was 68-32.  

In Werribee, the Liberals gained slightly from the final (Paul Hopper) transfer; here I have heard that the split off the 1 Hopper votes was 60-40 to them but the preferences that had pooled with Hopper from other sources favoured Labor.  What is notable here is that far from the minor candidates preferences pooling with Hopper, he actually went backwards compared to both majors, and got only 27.8% of the preferences at the 3CP stage.  This means that while there was a very large vote for non-majors in Werribee, a lot of those voters were not consistently opposed to the major parties; they just liked someone else more.  The term "double haters" has been thrown around in reference to this result but the distribution doesn't suggest that's what the voters are.  

Friday 6:20 ALP lead in Werribee out to 639, there will be slight changes but I expect it to finish well within 100 of that.  

Friday: Labor has very reasonably claimed victory in Werribee but the result is not official until after the adding of final votes and the distribution of preferences, which I'd expect to happen sometime next week.  In Prahran, it's interesting to note the Liberal primary vote lead over the Greens has come down to seven votes; although the Liberals will win the seat thanks to their superior preference flow, it is still possible they will do so from second on primaries (that would be embarrassing for right-wingers who oppose preferential voting).  

Tony Lupton has been claiming credit for the result in The Australian and suggesting Labor should put the Greens last everywhere.  However not only did his vote not look very Labory in booth terms, but his how to vote card which was orange and said "It's Time For An Independent" was hardly pitched at Labor voters beyond the endorsement from Steve Bracks.  

Thursday 3:30: Recheck primaries have come through without any major changes to Labor's position; this plus the increased lead after postals counted so far makes it clear Labor has retained the seat.   (Update: I understand there are now only provisionals and the last postals to come.)

Thursday 3pm: A report that Labor has done well on primary votes on the late postals and are poised to pull further ahead on 2PP.  (Update: report from Labor that the lead is now 591.)

Thursday midday: Counting of about 2000 Werribee postals has been brought forward to today.  This plus rechecking of booths may put the seat beyond doubt.  

Tuesday: Rechecking in Prahran has not resulted in any significant changes.  Still waiting for rechecked primaries in Werribee.  

Sunday: Where The Lupton Vote Really Came From!

There has been some damage-control spinning from the Greens of a result that is simply very bad.  Among this has been a tweet by leader Ellen Sandell claiming that "Obviously it’s not the result we would have liked but with the unofficial Labor candidate sending their preferences to the Liberals, those Labor preferences have handed the seat to the Liberals this time."  Firstly, Lupton was not a typical unofficial "independent Labor" type candidate but one who'd got involved in some culture war issues and criticised the party.  Secondly, candidates don't send preferences anywhere (it's the lower house) and I'd be surprised if the follow rate for the Lupton card was that high anyway.  Thirdly the evidence is that where Lupton got his votes from tended not to be the ALP support base.  In booth terms, while his vote was pretty flat everywhere, he did worst in the good Labor booths from 2022 and better in the good Liberal booths from 2022 - even though the former had more votes up for grabs care of Labor not running!  Neither result is statistically significant but they do very strongly contradict the idea that the Lupton vote was a large chunk of the former Labor vote - it looks more like an independent conservative sort of thing:



Friday, February 7, 2025

Victorian Labor Kicks The Group Ticket Can Down The Road

(Coverage of Victorian by-elections tonight from 6 pm.  Live page will go up around 5 pm).

Victoria is the last place in Australia where Group Ticket Voting persists in upper house elections.  The system was invented in the 1980s because the Democrats, who are to blame for everything, forced the Hawke Labor government to retain full preferencing in Senate elections.  Because requiring voters to number all the boxes for Senate elections often caused extremely high informal rates, Group Ticket Voting was created as a way to retain full preferencing while cutting the informal rate.  A voter could vote 1 for a party and their party would allocate their preference for them.

Initially this system lacked obvious downsides but its potential for exploitation was obvious as early as the 1987 federal election, where a Nuclear Disarmament candidate with 1.5% of the primary vote was elected.  A series of farcical GTV elections around the country since led to the abolition of the system in NSW, federally, SA and WA leaving only Victoria.  Problems exposed with the system have included:

* parties winning off tiny vote shares defeating much more popular parties when they would not win under any other system
* confusing and deceptive GTV preference allocations that are beyond the understanding of most voters if they tried to follow them
* preference harvesting in which ideologically unrelated parties band together to try to secure election off each others' group ticket preferences
* creation of unnecessary tipping points that should be irrelevant to the contest, making it easier for elections to be voided (eg WA Senate 2013)
* creation of bogus near-100% preference flows between parties when, if asked to choose preferences for themselves, voters spread preferences in a much less concentrated fashion
* corruption of parliamentary voting behaviour, in the form of party votes on electoral reform being influenced by fear of losing the ability to work with Glenn Druery, as stated by Druery himself in the Angry Victorians sting video
* denying voters the ability to direct their own preferences between parties above the line (which they will be used to doing so having done so twice since the last state election) and throwing away their stated preferences and overwrites them with a group ticket vote if they do. 
*confusion between the Victorian system and the Senate system