Queensland 2024 Postcount

Apparent wins (several not yet confirmed) LNP 50 ALP 34 KAP 3 GRN 1* IND 1

* Maiwar to be checked

Seats in doubt not in above total, and to be covered on this page:

Mulgrave (LNP vs KAP)

South Brisbane (Green vs ALP)

Mirani (LNP vs KAP)

Pumicestone (LNP vs ALP)

This is my postcount thread for the 2024 Queensland election which has been very decisively won by the LNP, the scale of their victory becoming more apparent late in the night as the prepoll swing was higher than the day booths.   I will be unrolling seats of interest through the day.  With only 66% of enrolment counted on the night it may well be that more seats become more competitive than they looked as counting continues.  I note for instance that Labor's apparent miracle retain in Bundaberg has tightened late at night and is still awaiting a major prepoll.  

Updates will be added for each seat, scrolling to the top, until a seat is considered no longer in serious doubt.  Seats no longer being followed will be moved to the bottom of the page.  

Mulgrave (ALP 12.2%, LNP vs KAP)

Mulgrave includes southern Cairns and areas further south and has been held by Labor since they won it in a by-election in 1998, which gave Peter Beattie majority government.  It was won by the Nationals from Labor in 1995, then initially by One Nation in 1998, and has been held by Labor ever since the by-election, firstly by Warren Pitt (also MP 1989-1995) and then by his son Curtis Pitt, who retired at this election.

Labor has lost more than half of its vote with the retirement, a catastrophic 27.4% primary swing (the worst in the state) and is currently behind 52.7-47.3 on 2PP with 54.8% counted.  The bulk of the rest will be absent early voting which in 2020 accounted for 20.2% of enrolment and favoured the LNP over Labor.  Turnout in this seat also tends to be low, reaching only 83.75% in 2020.  Presumably swings on absent early voting will be at least similar to the count so far if not worse for Labor so Labor will lose the 2PP even more heavily than this.  

However instead of the departing votes going to the LNP they have sprayed among a large field and we currently have this mess:

James (LNP) 26.0

Bates (ALP) 23.8

Lesina (KAP) 18.2

Raymond (IND) 7.9

McInnes (ON) 7.4

Daniels (LC) 5.8

Batzke (IND) 4.1

Everett (Grn) 3.6

Searle (FFP) 1.8

Floyd (IND) 1.3

On current numbers, the threat to the LNP's Terry James is Steven Lesina (KAP) who could repeat Nick Dametto's win from third in Hinchinbrook 2017.  Lesina's first challenge is to get into second.  On present numbers he needs to beat Labor's share of preferences from the other candidates by 17.5 points in a three-way split vs Labor and the LNP.  This does not sound difficult and the target may well decrease.  I note that of the independents, Batzke is a controversial anti-abortion ex-UAP candidate and Raymond is a veteran policeman who campaigned on crime issues and was reportedly courted by the LNP and KAP.  

Assuming Lesina does make the final two, he currently needs to beat the LNP 57-43 on the combined preferences of all other parties.  This strikes me as very easy, though the target is likely to increase as further counting favours the LNP.

Most likely we will be waiting for all votes to come in and a distribution of preferences to confirm the winner in this seat but at the moment Lesina seems to be well placed.

South Brisbane (Greens vs ALP 5.4%)

The Greens' Amy MacMahon won South Brisbane from Labor's Jackie Trad in 2020 with the assistance of LNP how to vote card preferences, though she also had a lead on primary votes.  The LNP reversed that decision for 2024 meaning that all else being equal, the Greens would probably need a slight improvement in their primary vote position vs Labor to hold the seat.  That has not occurred, with a 2% swing against Labor's primary and a larger 4.6% swing against the Greens', with 63.8% of enrolment counted, and the small matter of a 43 point decline in the Greens' preference share means they are definitely toast if it finishes as a two-party contest against Labor.  In 2020 out-of-electorate early votes were 6.5% of enrolment (likely to increase) and day absents were 5.0%, and turnout finished at 88.  Remaining postals could be about 4.5% of enrolment.  

Late in the night, a possible lifeline emerged.  If the LNP vote comes up to the point that the LNP can make the final two with the assistance of One Nation preferences, then the Greens can still win the seat on Labor preferences.  At present MacMahon is on 35%, Barbara O'Shea (Labor) on 32.4 and Marita Parkinson (LNP) 29.4.  Richard Henderson (One Nation) has 3.2%.  

In South Brisbane in 2020 preferences from the One Nation candidate (not all One Nation votes) split 61.6% LNP, 20.1% Green, 18.2% Labor.  There were similar One Nation exclusions with three candidates left in, for instance, Maiwar 2020 and the federal seats of Griffith and Brisbane in 2022.  In all these cases the LNP gained on Labor at between .43 votes/preference and .50 votes/preference on the exclusion of the One Nation candidate.  If this pattern repeats, the LNP will close on Labor by something like 1.5 points off the One Nation preferences, suggesting they are currently in reality about 1.5% (390 votes) behind. 

If I assume that out of division prepolls will have the same swing as home prepolls, that will give the LNP only a trivial edge on those, probably worth less than 100 votes.  If I assume that absent day votes have the same swing as day votes generally, that would more or less cancel out the out of division prepolls.  This suggests that if the LNP are to close the gap (much as they don't want to) they will probably have to do it on remaining postals.

The postals so far have had a colossal swing to the LNP, such that another 1900 formal postals at the present rate would reduce Labor's lead in the race for second by about 310 votes.  Declaration votes however could boost it by several dozen.  So all up I am projecting Labor just staying ahead of the LNP but the margin in my estimate is below 200 votes (about 0.6%) which could easily be overturned by a change in swing patterns or even a counting correction.  Too close to call (and the Greens for some reason have a high win rate in close postcounts in my experience) but for now this seems to be a slight advantage for Labor.  

The Greens have never before lost a single-member state and federal seat that they won at a general election, having successfully defended eight (some of them repeatedly).  That streak is here in serious danger and may also be on the skids in Maiwar but I have to check that one later as there are conflicting projections.