EMRS: Government Polling Steadies After Crossbench Defections

EMRS: Liberal 38 (+2) Labor 32 (+1) Green 14 (-1) IND/Other 16 (-2)
Election held now would deliver some kind of hung parliament
Jeremy Rockliff retakes slim Better Premier lead

This is just some quick comments at this stage about the August EMRS poll which has just been released.  The last poll came in the wake of the shock defection of Liberals John Tucker and Lara Alexander to the crossbench, and saw a six-point hit to the Government's vote.  The government has had a bumpy ride in the Parliament ever since, losing several votes on the floor and frequently having proceedings held up by tactical motions, but there has so far been no threat to confidence and supply.  It seems nobody much wants an election at this moment and if one is to happen this year that would probably be a result of some kind of standoff gone wrong.  The stadium controversy has abated for now and while there are plenty of others taking its place (most recently Marinus cost blowouts and mass Hobart bus service cancellations) the latest EMRS poll suggests that the damage is at least not getting worse.  In fact the government has gained two points, though the gain is not statistically significant.  There was a chance here for the rot to set in in public views of the Government, but it clearly hasn't occurred in this quarter.  

Labor rises to a three and a half year high of 32%, but that's still not really high, especially when the statistically insignificant 1% gain in the current poll appears to have come off the crossbenches.  So once again the question is asked, under what circumstances does the Labor Opposition become competitive for the primary vote lead, and once again we do not have any answer yet.  

That is not to say that Labor could not govern on these sorts of numbers, but it would be governing clearly in minority if it did so, and perhaps needing the support not only of the Greens but also of one or more centre/left INDs, lamboids or more scarily David O'Byrne.  The prospects of the Franklin Independent Labor MP continue to hang in the balance - will the national executive preselect him or not, if not will he run as an independent with a serious chance of re-election, and just what would happen if he ended up with a decisive share of the balance of power?  

There would be a realistic prospect on these numbers also of the government getting close enough to 18 seats for a couple of conservative crossbenchers to get it over the line, but will the independent defectors be able to build enough support (in Alexander's case from nothing much) to be re-elected.  And if not them, then who?  So on the current numbers the electoral picture doesn't look great for either side, but it is still a year and a half til the next scheduled election, and things will probably change.

At the moment I think it's too difficult to construct a useful estimate of what the parliament would look like under this poll, but I may have a go later if the (currently down) voting intention tracker reappears.  There is a lot of uncertainty about the 14% Independent vote among the 16% Others in this poll - how many of those voters will actually vote for an independent or know what an independent is?  There are plausible independent chances in every seat for a 35-seat election, and a prospect that Clark at least could elect two if a significant second Independent runs, but more detail is needed on the geographic breakdown.  The Jacqui Lambie Network, any ticket for which is likely on past experience to be a rabble but which is capable of winning in the northern seats, has also started recruiting for candidates.

It would be interesting to see a useful second opinion but there's not much sign of that at the moment.  For whatever reason the Tasmanian component of an Australia Institute poll that included a deceptive question about management of the endangered Maugean Skate has yet to rise from the murky depths of its harbour (and it is only uComms which was wrong by over 7% on the Liberal primary in 2021 anyway).  

Jeremy Rockliff has recaptured the lead as Preferred Premier from Rebecca White, 42-39.  While that is a slim lead on a question that in other places tends to favour incumbents by a lot, the fact that it exists at all suggests some recovery from the immediate stadium/minority fallout in May and that is also consistent with the slight rise in government voting intention (thought that isn't statistically significant).  Overall I think the government will be relieved by this poll in the context of what has happened and the previous poll.

More comments later - these are just some brief comments in view of limited time today.

Update: sadly the EMRS trend tracker is down.