South Australia 2022 Live

CURRENT PARLIAMENT Liberal 22 Labor 19 IND 6 

CURRENT NOTIONAL INCUMBENTS Liberal 23 Labor 20 IND 4 (three INDs defending seats won as Liberals)

LABOR HAS WON MAJORITY GOVERNMENT (25+ SEATS EXPECTED)

SEATS APPARENTLY WON: Labor 25 Liberal 13 IND 4 In Doubt 5

Seats in doubt:

Gibson (Labor leading in Liberal seat)\

Dunstan, Heysen (Liberal leading in Liberal seat)

Finniss (IND vs Lib in Liberal seat, depends on exclusion order)

Waite (very messy, probably Liberal vs Labor in IND seat)

Refresh for recent comments - about once every ten minutes at peak

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Updates (scrolling to top):

11:30 I'm winding up the live coverage now and starting work on postcount threads.  Thanks all for the interest.  Note that in Dunstan, Marshall has fallen behind but that is because the ABC has switched off the projection.  There are booths still being counted to 2PP that will favour him, though he isn't home and hosed yet.  

10:42 We have a much bigger count (61%) in Waite:

Labor 27.4, Liberal 24.5, Duluk 18.9, Holmes-Ross 15.3, Green 12, AJP 1.9.

Hmmm ....

10:39 The ABC has taken Heysen off deathwatch.  

10:06 Labor has moved further ahead on primaries in Waite.  I don't see either of the independents making the top two on the preferences of the other but can't yet completely rule this out.  Note that the ABC's numbers are just estimates and we don't know how Duluk's preferences might flow. 

I've done a look around for anything messy I have missed.  Flinders will finish Liberal vs IND but the Liberals will win on primaries or otherwise easily.  

10:00 Should also note that Waite is extremely under-counted.  Hopefully it will be realigned on 2PP in coming days although it's still not completely clear that Holmes-Ross in fourth can't move higher on preferences.  

9:30 I have had an early look at the Legislative Council, without regard to where the votes are from.  There are 11 seats.  Currently the majors are on about four each, the Greens one, and One Nation lead LDP (with the donkey vote) and Family First in the race for potentially two.  However as the count goes on Labor should come up and the Liberals go down (but perhaps not enough to not win four).  It will be interesting to see how many minor party seats remain and whether ON/LDP/FF are fighting for one or two.

9:12 King now clearly seems to be going into the ALP pile, so that's the four ultra-marginals and Davenport for 25.  Waite where nobody has 30% is probably the next best chance.  

9:00 Premier Marshall has very rightly conceded.

8:50 More votes are going in in King and Labor are probably winning but with the size of prepoll it's risky to give away seats to Labor that are inside 52.  In Finniss, Nicholson has dropped to third.  

8:46 Still waiting for more meaningful figures from King.  There are now a lot of seats where the Liberals are hanging on and projecting for 51-52 so this doesn't seem to be the bloodbath it looked like it could be earlier on.  On the other hand, Labor could still gain Waite.

8:34 Dunstan is off deathwatch.  

8:28 The Liberals are improving in a lot of the 2PP seats that they haven't already lost.  It's possible the damage will be contained to four or five leaving Labor with a small majority but a fairly large crossbench.

8:21 Marshall has recovered considerably in Dunstan but is not yet out of trouble.

8:19 The ABC is projecting Hammond to the indie Airlie Keen but I don't see her getting out of third at the moment.  

8:12 Votes coming in in droves for Geoff Brock; I strongly suspect he has won Stuart.  

8:10 Sorry, got distracted by Twitter though have continued updating the header.  The ABC is giving Finniss to Nicholson but we need to see if she does make the final two (if so she wins.)  

7:45 The Liberals are in trouble almost everywhere.  The ABC computer is being a little trigger happy in calling seats but Dunstan (Marshall) is another with a current projected loss.

7:38 Interesting stuff in safe Liberal seat of Finniss where an indie Lou Nicholson is second and the ECSA is counting preferences to her with her well ahead so far.    

7:35 Liberals now have an overall negative swing on primary votes.  Generally looking very bad for the government. 

7:31 Geoff Brock looks competitive in Stuart as he is not doing too badly in the ex-Stuart part of the division and may do a lot better in the ex-Frome part.  

7:24 ABC projects Davenport and Elder as Labor gains.  If Davenport is falling (a subject of speculation based largely on its demographics) then things are likely to be grim for the Liberals in many if not all of the ultra-marginals.  

7:21 Overall we're so far seeing only a small primary swing to the Liberals, and larger swings to Labor and the Greens, following the demise of SA-BEST.  Most likely SA-BEST voters are going to both majors (and independents) but there are also votes shifting between the major parties.  Dan Cregan is clearly on path to re-election and reports that Fraser Ellis is also doing well.

7:14 It was a weird decision by ECSA to count preferences between the Liberals and a non-incumbent indie in Waite and at the moment that indie is in fourth, but that could change.  By the way it looks like the ABC's swing figures on its seat by seat results page are not booth matched until 10% is counted, which is annoying.

7:12 Unpleasant figures for the Liberals in King and Elder as well.  

7:07  More votes in in Heysen and the seat is now competitive.

6:59 First numbers in Heysen - very small swing against Josh Teague but in a trivially small booth. 

6:54 Votes are arriving slightly faster on the ECSA site than ABC so at present I have to click through 47 seats to see if they are coming from anywhere interesting, especially in the absence of a Poll Bludger coverage.  So far only four seats are off the mark. (Frome has multiple booths in and seems to be reverting to the Liberals as expected so far.)

6:48 An early scrutineer report relayed by Tom Koutsantonis suggesting Dan Cregan is doing well in one booth in Kavel.

6:41 Frome is one of those where ECSA is doing an indie throw (it is safe Liberal anyway) but the indie is off to a slow start.

6:39 A few booths coming in but small and unreliable because of booth changes - not much to see here yet.  

6:32: William Bowe reports some interesting decisions about 2CP throw decisions for tonight:

"They have been predictably chosen to throw between the Liberals and independent incumbents in Kavel (Dan Cregan), Mount Gambier (Troy Bell), Narungga (Fraser Ellis) and Stuart (Geoff Brock, who is attempting to move to the seat from Frome), but less expected is that they will do the same with non-incumbent independents in Finniss (Lou Nicholson), Frome (Cate Hunter), Hammond (Airlie Keen) and, especially, Heather Holmes-Ross in Waite. The latter will no doubt displease the seat’s actual Liberal-turned-independent member, Sam Duluk."

6:22: A disturbing report that Vickie Chapman has engaged in poll denialism by referring to polls using landlines that only call older voters (the pet meme of the deceased polling crank and alleged sex pest Bob Ellis).  Even when polls used landlines, scaling was used to get around the issue of age skew to a large degree.  The major polls in this election were exclusively online.

6 pm: Welcome to my online coverage of the 2022 SA election.  Comments will appear here scrolling to the top once counting is underway. As usual all assessments are provisional except where seats are described as called.  For my assessment of the late polling see the previous article.  Historic and polling evidence suggests a Labor victory is rather likely, but a Liberal win (most likely if so in minority) is not impossible, especially given the very limited polling data.

I'll be keeping an eye on the ABC coverage but also keeping a watch for "bolter" seats with exclusion order issues that are easily overlooked.  Please keep in mind that figures on the ABC coverage are likely to include estimates that may not be real votes in some of these seats where ECSA may pick the wrong top two.  Late in the night I may have a first look at the Upper House.  Postcount threads will be posted overnight or tomorrow; depending on doubt level and complexity there may be just one thread or dedicated threads.  Enjoy