ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. IF YOU CHANGE THE VOTING SYSTEM YOU CHANGE VOTER BEHAVIOUR AND ANYONE WHO DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT SHOULDN'T BE IN PARLIAMENT.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Not-A-Poll: Best State Premiers Of The Past 40 Years: Round 2
Two months ago I started a round of Best State Premier Not-A-Polls. Winners from each state will eventually go through to an elimination-style final similar to my Best Prime Minister series. Also the skew in this site's reader base (and that's probably not the only cause) led to Labor Premiers winning round 1 in every state, so I am starting a Best Non-Labor Premier/Chief Minister runoff as well.
As it has turned out six states have finished up with two-candidate runoffs. The first named was the round 1 winner in every case except Queensland which was a tie.
NSW Neville Wran vs Bob Carr Victoria Steve Bracks vs Daniel Andrews (postponed to January to reduce Vic election contamination) Queensland Peter Beattie vs Wayne Goss Western Australia Geoff Gallop vs Carmen Lawrence Tasmania Jim Bacon vs Lara Giddings ACT Katy Gallagher vs Jon Stanhope
All these runoffs will go for one month. (Voting in the sidebar, closes 6 pm Nov 30.)
Two candidates win their states/territories and advance directly to the final by outright majority:
SA Don Dunstan NT Clare Martin
Daniel Andrews is the only current Premier still in the contest.
It was possible for a candidate to win their state in the first round without winning an absolute majority (based on the threshhold rules). For a while it looked like Gallagher would do this in the ACT, and Bacon was close in Tasmania but neither got there.
Qualifiers for Best Non-Labor Premier have been decided by first-past-the-post (I think this is actually better than having open-primary style runoffs in this case, though the final can only be an open runoff). They are:
NSW Nick Greiner Victoria Jeff Kennett Queensland Joh Bjelke-Petersen Western Australia Colin Barnett South Australia Steven Marshall Tasmania Will Hodgman ACT Kate Carnell NT Paul Everingham
Two current Premiers made this list.
Best Non-Labor Premier will be determined by multi-candidate runoff. To progress to the next round a candidate must:
* Obtain at least 8% of the vote
* Be capable of winning from that position if it was a preferential election (this automatically excludes the candidate in last place).
Given the open-primary nature of the vote I think I know who's going to win, but we will see!
The first round of this will go for one month. (Voting in the sidebar, closes 6 pm Nov 30.)
Outside the time window of 40 years, which I chose because for premiers earlier than that few site readers will have a strong memory of them. With Prime Ministers it is a little bit different but even then I only went back 45 years.
The comment system is unreliable. If you cannot submit comments you can email me a comment (via email link in profile) - email must be entitled: Comment for publication, followed by the name of the article you wish to comment on. Comments are accepted in full or not at all. Comments will be published under the name the email is sent from unless an alias is clearly requested and stated. If you submit a comment which is not accepted within a few days you can also email me and I will check if it has been received.
Katy Gallagher was a very effective CM of the ACT, but she was Neil Harvey compared to Don Bradman when compared to Jon Stanhope,
ReplyDeleteTom Playford should have made the SA Non-Labor list. How quickly memories fade.
ReplyDeleteOutside the time window of 40 years, which I chose because for premiers earlier than that few site readers will have a strong memory of them. With Prime Ministers it is a little bit different but even then I only went back 45 years.
Delete