Not-A-Poll Reset 2 of 2024: Miles Defeated

Following Labor's heavy defeat in the Queensland election (and no it wasn't close) it's time to start another round of the sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll, which includes the six Premiers, the two Chief Ministers, the PM and the federal Opposition Leader.

Inheriting the job after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned, Miles served for less than a year, the first Premier to not make it to a year in office since Rob Kerin (SA) in 2002.  This is the longest gap between cases with Premiers with such short tenures in history.  Leading a government that was federally dragged and almost a decade old, and coming to office with mixed personal perceptions, Miles was always at long odds to retain.  He did, however, not die wondering in his attempt to hold on to as many Labor seats as he could, and in my view the result could have easily been worse.

David Crisafulli scores the Coalition's first win from opposition in a state election since SA 2018 and takes over with the potential to be Premier for a long time.  My metaphorical advice to him to secure that longevity would be to install a ten-foot high portrait of Campbell Newman in his office and write across it "JUST DON'T BE THIS GUY".  

Not-A-Poll voters overwhelmingly got this one right.  The totals after deleting votes cast after 6 pm on election night (as I always do when the incumbent loses) were:

The new round is more interesting.  Albanese and Dutton go to an election in the next seven months, though it's possible that they could both survive it in their current roles.  Rockliff won an election earlier this year but his government has had a bumpy ride.  Barr just won another election and might retire sometime in the next 20 years, or lose an election in the next 60.  The rest are four first-termers elected from opposition (none facing elections before 2026) and two replacement Premiers.  Cook faces an election next year but is against a very weakened opposition, while Allan could be at risk in 2026 given the age of the government at that time.  

Queensland 2024 Postcount

Apparent wins (several not yet confirmed) LNP 52 ALP 33 KAP 3 GRN 1 IND 1

Seats in doubt not in above total, and to be covered on this page:

Mulgrave (LNP vs KAP)

South Brisbane (Green vs ALP)

Mirani (LNP vs KAP)

Estimated final result if current leads/expected favourites hold LNP 52 ALP 34 KAP 5 GRN 1 IND 1

This is my postcount thread for the 2024 Queensland election which has been very decisively won by the LNP, the scale of their victory becoming more apparent late in the night as the prepoll swing was higher than the day booths.   I will be unrolling seats of interest through the day.  With only 66% of enrolment counted on the night it may well be that more seats become more competitive than they looked as counting continues.  I note for instance that Labor's apparent miracle retain in Bundaberg has tightened late at night and is still awaiting a major prepoll.  (Edit: Labor has survived that)

Many of the ABC projections last night were very hard for me to fathom, including the late-night projection of Maiwar as an LNP win.  The ABC has since called the seat a Greens retain.  

The LNP has opened up a large lead in Pumicestone which I was going to cover on this page so I've saved myself the bother for now.  I am also not duplicating William Bowe's coverage of Pine Rivers and Maryborough yet though I may add Pine Rivers at least if it becomes closer.

Updates will be added for each seat, scrolling to the top, until a seat is considered no longer in serious doubt.  Seats no longer being followed will be moved to the bottom of the page.  

Mirani (ONP vs LNP 9.0%, ONP incumbent ran with KAP)

Complex to project but KAP appears better placed

Monday 4:30 pm: The ABC is using the mix and match method from the incomplete official primary count to correct for errors in the unofficial count and on this basis is showing a slight weakening in Andrew's primary (down 31) and improvement for the LNP (up 11).  Andrew's lead in the unofficial 2PP count is 328, with those changes it would be more like 286.

Intro Sunday: Mirani is a coastal seat loosely between Rockhampton and Mackay.  In Mirani, Stephen Andrew was elected for One Nation in 2017 and became a very rare case of a One Nation incumbent to run a full term with the party and be re-elected in 2020.  But in the lead-up to the current election a spat broke out between him and his party, who accused him of being "lazy" and complained that he had not been moving bills in the parliament.  After a short spell as an indie, Stephen Andrew was picked up by KAP.  

This proved rather handy for him in preference-gathering terms because it meant that instead of being a One Nation candidate who Labor had to put last, he was now able to be preferenced by Labor ahead of the LNP - Labor's general fondness for giving away preferences to the Katter Party and also Shooters Fishers and Farmers having long known no rational limits.  

The split in vote between KAP and One Nation in the seat, plus the general swing to the LNP, have endangered Andrew's hold on the seat but haven't destroyed it as obviously as could have been the case.  At present Glen Kelly (LNP) has 35.8%, Andrew (KAP) 27.6%, Susan Teder (ALP) 20.2% and Brett (Beaver) Neal (ON) 10.8% plus 3% for the Greens and 2.7% for Family First.  There is a slightly incomplete 2CP count in which Andrew leads Kelly by 253 votes (50.5-49.5).  This is missing a small booth Mount Morgan from which Andrew may slightly increase his lead (say by 40 votes or so), but I am not so sure about that as while the LNP has done badly in that booth and Labor well, it is a very good one for One Nation.

The count is at 68.8% of enrolment and in 2020 it reached 89.6%.  Absent early voting is huge in Mirani accounting for 23% of enrolment in 2020 (nearly 8000 votes!); it will be less than that this time.  There are probably about 2000 postals to come as well as a few thousand absents and the usual scatter of provisionals and so on.

It's not possible to project off the 2020 2CP breakdowns in this seat because the how-to-vote recommendations of Labor at least are different as concerns the two competing candidates.  It's the postals that are the issue for Andrew so far as the first 2319 cost him 367 of his lead, and while that flow should weaken in the later postals it could still be enough to put him behind or very nearly so.  The LNP hasn't done at all well in the prepolls in this seat counted so far on 2CP (oddly) and so I suspect that absent early votes should be good for Andrew and absent votes also should be.

It's a straight 2CP fight and it's better to have the lead than not to have it so for now I think Andrew could just hang on but this is subject to, for instance, any corrections in the existing count.  I did a preference flow check and did not find any issues.  

Mulgrave (ALP 12.2%, LNP vs KAP)

Apparently strong prospect of KAP winning from third, otherwise LNP wins seat

Mulgrave includes southern Cairns and areas further south and has been held by Labor since they won it in a by-election in 1998, which gave Peter Beattie majority government.  It was won by the Nationals from Labor in 1995, then initially by One Nation in 1998, and has been held by Labor ever since the by-election, firstly by Warren Pitt (also MP 1989-1995) and then by his son Curtis Pitt, who retired at this election.

Labor has lost more than half of its vote with the retirement, a catastrophic 27.4% primary swing (the worst in the state) and is currently behind 52.7-47.3 on 2PP with 54.8% counted.  The bulk of the rest will be absent early voting which in 2020 accounted for 20.2% of enrolment and favoured the LNP over Labor.  Turnout in this seat also tends to be low, reaching only 83.75% in 2020.  Presumably swings on absent early voting will be at least similar to the count so far if not worse for Labor so Labor will lose the 2PP even more heavily than this.  

However instead of the departing votes going to the LNP they have sprayed among a large field and we currently have this mess:

James (LNP) 26.0

Bates (ALP) 23.8

Lesina (KAP) 18.2

Raymond (IND) 7.9

McInnes (ON) 7.4

Daniels (LC) 5.8

Batzke (IND) 4.1

Everett (Grn) 3.6

Searle (FFP) 1.8

Floyd (IND) 1.3

On current numbers, the threat to the LNP's Terry James is Steven Lesina (KAP) who could repeat Nick Dametto's win from third in Hinchinbrook 2017.  Lesina's first challenge is to get into second.  On present numbers he needs to beat Labor's share of preferences from the other candidates by 17.5 points in a three-way split vs Labor and the LNP.  This does not sound difficult and the target may well decrease.  I note that of the independents, Batzke is a controversial anti-abortion ex-UAP candidate and Raymond is a veteran policeman who campaigned on crime issues and was reportedly courted by the LNP and KAP.  All this said reports that the how to vote card preferences favoured KAP were overstated, with many flowing to Labor and LNP ... but few voters for this mess will copy the cards anyway.  

Assuming Lesina does make the final two, he currently needs to beat the LNP 57-43 on the combined preferences of all other parties.  This strikes me as very easy, though the target is likely to increase as further counting favours the LNP.

Most likely we will be waiting for all votes to come in and a distribution of preferences to confirm the winner in this seat but at the moment Lesina seems to be well placed.

South Brisbane (Greens vs ALP 5.4%)

ALP need to stay ahead of LNP at crucial point to win seat - critically close

Live count gap estimate after preferences on Monday evening: ALP 216 ahead of exclusion

Estimate is based at this stage on historic ON flows between LNP/ALP/GRN, will be adjusted if better data permits

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Monday 9:20:  1619 out of electorate prepolls favoured the LNP 616-433 over Labor and 1249 day absents favoured Labor over the LNP 387-262; there were also some postals added.  An important thing here is that you can't project off a sample of absents to all absents unless you know where they are from; the prepolls may have been from somewhere naturally conservative.  (Edit: my understanding is they're from multiple seats to the south side of South Brisbane where the LNP vote is mostly not that high.)

Monday 3:30 pm: The current Labor to Liberal primary gap in the unofficial count is 2.9% (760 votes) having come down very slightly on what I believe is rechecking. Furthermore, in the rechecked booths the LNP are up 13 votes compared to the official count, Labor down 28, One Nation up 12 and Greens up 48 meaning the lead prior to ON preferences is currently 719.  The main culprit here is the West End booth where it appears 30 Greens votes may have been in the Labor pile.  Overall this improves the Greens' position by about 67 votes compared to Sunday's outlook and significantly improves their chances given the projected closeness of the finish (but they're still behind).  

INTRO SUNDAY:  The Greens' Amy MacMahon won South Brisbane from Labor's Jackie Trad in 2020 with the assistance of LNP how to vote card preferences, though she also had a lead on primary votes.  The LNP reversed that decision for 2024 meaning that all else being equal, the Greens would probably need a slight improvement in their primary vote position vs Labor to hold the seat.  That has not occurred, with a 2% swing against Labor's primary and a larger 4.6% swing against the Greens', with 63.8% of enrolment counted, and the small matter of a 43 point decline in the Greens' preference share means they are definitely toast if it finishes as a two-party contest against Labor.  In 2020 out-of-electorate early votes were 6.5% of enrolment (likely to increase) and day absents were 5.0%, and turnout finished at 88.  Remaining postals could be about 4.5% of enrolment.  

Late in the night, a possible lifeline emerged.  If the LNP vote comes up to the point that the LNP make the final two with the assistance of One Nation preferences, then the Greens still win the seat on Labor preferences.  At present MacMahon is on 35%, Barbara O'Shea (Labor) on 32.4 and Marita Parkinson (LNP) 29.4.  Richard Henderson (One Nation) has 3.2%.  

In South Brisbane in 2020 preferences from the One Nation candidate (not all One Nation votes) split 61.6% LNP, 20.1% Green, 18.2% Labor.  There were similar One Nation exclusions with three candidates left in, for instance, Maiwar 2020 and the federal seats of Griffith and Brisbane in 2022.  In all these cases the LNP gained on Labor at between .43 votes/preference and .50 votes/preference on the exclusion of the One Nation candidate.  If this pattern repeats, the LNP will close on Labor by something like 1.5 points off the One Nation preferences, suggesting they are currently in reality about 1.5% (390 votes) behind. 

If I assume that out of division prepolls will have the same swing as home prepolls, that will give the LNP only a trivial edge on those, probably worth less than 100 votes.  If I assume that absent day votes have the same swing as day votes generally, that would more or less cancel out the out of division prepolls.  This suggests that if the LNP are to close the gap (much as they don't want to) they will probably have to do it on remaining postals.

The postals so far have had a colossal swing to the LNP, such that another 1900 formal postals at the present rate would reduce Labor's lead in the race for second by about 310 votes.  However late postals won't break as strongly as early postals, and declaration votes could boost Labor's lead by several dozen.  So all up I am projecting Labor staying ahead of the LNP but the margin in my estimate is a few hundred votes (a bit under 1%) which could easily be overturned by a change in swing patterns or even a counting correction.  Too close to call yet (and the Greens for some reason have a high win rate in close postcounts in my experience) but for now this seems to be a advantage Labor.  

The Greens have never before lost a single-member state and federal seat that they won at a general election, having successfully defended eight (some of them repeatedly).  That streak is here in serious danger.  

(More seats may be added)

Queensland 2024 Election Night Live

2020 Election Result ALP 52 LNP 34 KAP 3 Green 2 PHON 1 IND 1

At 2024 Election ALP 51 LNP 35 KAP 4 Green 2 IND 1

Substantial swing to LNP, 2PP likely to exceed 53% and may reach 54%

LNP has won election with a small to moderate majority (probably 50-53 seats won)

Seats expected to change (some not absolutely confirmed):

LNP to ALP: Ipswich West

ALP to LNP:  Aspley, Barron River, Caloundra, Capalaba, Cook, Keppel, Hervey Bay, Mackay, Maryborough, Mundingburra, Nicklin, Redcliffe, Pine Rivers, Rockhampton, Townsville, Thuringowa

ALP to LNP or KAP: Mulgrave

Incumbents struggling:

ALP trailing LNP on projection: Pumicestone

Greens trailing ALP: South Brisbane (but may be saved if ALP falls to third)

Close ALP incumbent seats: Gaven

Close KAP incumhent seat: Mirani

Close Green incumbent seat: Maiwar

Complicated seats:

Mulgrave (possibility of KAP win from third)

South Brisbane (possibility ALP could be knocked out saving Greens)

Queensland Polling Narrows Further In The Final Days

LAST-ELECTION PREFS AGGREGATE: 52.4-47.6 TO LNP 

SEAT PROJECTION OFF STATE POLLS IF THIS 2PP IS ACCURATE: LNP 48 ALP 37 GRN 4 KAP 3 IND 1

(AVERAGE OF FINAL POLLS BY RELEASED 2PP: 53.5-46.5 TO LNP, PROJECTION FOR THAT 2PP IS 51-34-4-3-1).  

As the final polls come out, we seem on for a closer Queensland election than earlier this year looked the case.  For much of the year the Miles Government has had classic hallmarks of a doomed state government - almost ten years in power, federally dragged, beset by crime complaints, and polling terribly.  Even four weeks ago there were signs of some recovery, but nothing that looked like life.  Now in the final week the LNP has recorded a couple of polls based off which it would be only slightly more likely than not to get a majority.  As the pendulum slightly favours Labor, it's even still plausible that if there is a modest polling error, Labor could scrape home.  Equally it's still plausible that the LNP could outdo the polls or get a good seat distribution and get a very solid majority.  But the very heavy drubbing that for so long looked so likely now seems a much more remote prospect.  If the late polls are spot on, Labor will almost certainly still lose, but they won't have trouble with saving the furniture.  Not that they needed the furniture the last time they were voted out.  

This has been accompanied by some remarkable changes in leadership ratings.  In the final Newspoll, Steven Miles has recorded a Better Premier lead, albeit of 3%, which is typically nowhere near enough because preferred leader polling skews to incumbents.  But such as it was, that was his first Better Premier lead ever, and the first for a Labor Premier since April 2023, snapping a run of 17 losses from various pollsters.  Crisafulli has gone from a personal rating of net +12 at the start of this campaign to net -3, his first negative rating of the term that I can find after at least 19 positives.  This sort of recovery by a state government that has started losing heavily in polling is very uncommon.

The Commonest Arguments For OPV Are Overrated

In the leadup to the Queensland election (which I'll have a roundup post on overnight) there's been some undignified arguing about whether Queensland should use optional or compulsory preferencing, with both major parties accusing each other of seeking to rig or corrupt the system.  Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has repeatedly used misleading language to attack compulsory preferencing, claiming that it forces voters to "vote for" candidates they don't want.  (It actually only forces them to rank them, which lacks the same level of obvious moral repugnance).   

In New South Wales, the debate about optional preferencing is typically a lot more sedate.  Optional preferencing has obvious formality benefits in NSW especially at state elections (though this can flow on to worse informal voting rates at federal).  Perhaps partly because OPV is in the NSW Constitution, and perhaps because any government wanting to do so would have a tough time getting its way in the upper house, there doesn't seem to be any serious push to get rid of it.  It also seems that for whatever reason, non-major-party candidates (who might be thought to be disadvantaged most by OPV since they most often rely on winning from behind) actually do well in NSW state elections, much better than in Victoria.  

However, in Queensland, where there's no upper house and the election winners can write the rules for the next election, the debate is an on and off culture war item between the major parties.   In Queensland, OPV first came in from the 1992 election after it was recommended by the post-Fitzgerald Electoral and Administrative Review Committee, although the arguments considered had very little to do with corruption.  It was repealed for the 2017 election in unusual circumstances.  Katter's Australian Party and the LNP had supported an electoral amendment bill to increase the number of seats from 89 to 93.  The minority Palaszczuk government moved an amendment to add the return of compulsory preferencing, which then passed and the whole package was then passed over the LNP's vehement objections.  

ACT 2024 Postcount

Numbers in the form Labor-Liberal-Greens-I4C-others.  

BRINDABELLA: Final result 2-2-1-0-0 (Greens defeated Liberals for final seat)

GINNINDERRA: 2-2-1-0-0 (no change)

KURRAJONG: 2-1-1-1-0 (Independents for Canberra gain from Greens)

MURRUMBIDGEE: 2-2-0-0-1 (Fiona Carrick gain from Greens)

YERRABI: 2-2-1-0-0 (no change)

Final total 10-9-4-1-1

WARNING: ACT election analysis is highly technical.  This page is rated Wonk Factor 5/5.

The letter Q, where used without explanation, means the number of quotas.

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Welcome to my page that will follow the ACT postcount until all seats are resolved.  This year each seat has its own section with updates scrolling to the top for each seat.   Updates will be added frequently for the close and complex races in Brindabella (three party fight for one seat) and Murrumbidgee (within-party contest between two Liberals).  The other seats will only be updated if anything I consider notable happens.  

Last night Elections ACT were extremely fast at getting two provisional distributions out with the second arriving at 8:21.  I believe this was all the electronic votes available to include on the day and the reason there were no more afterwards is all remaining votes were paper ballots that still need to be scanned over coming days.

ACT Election 2024: Counting Day Live

Startline from 2020 election: 10 Labor 9 Liberal 6 Greens 

Likely result 10 Labor 9 Liberal 3 Green 1 Ind for Canberra 1 Carrick 1 undecided

In doubt: Labor vs Liberal vs Greens (Brindabella) - Liberal appears likely 

(some others not fully confirmed)

Labor/Greens combined majority (as opposed to shared balance of power) looks extremely likely.

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Comments will appear here scrolling to the top from 6 pm

11:15 End of night wrap: What we have seen in the ACT election is no major change for the major parties, with Labor, Liberals and Greens all down a bit on vote share at the moment with the emergence of Independents for Canberra.  The Greens were extremely lucky to win six seats in 2020 and an unsurprising but small decline in their vote was always a risk of costing them three.  While 10-10-3-1-1 still looks like the most likely scenario there remain some different scenarios in Brindabella where the flow of preferences between the left parties could still see the Greens retain against the odds, or there is a very weird scenario in which Labor gets three, but more likely is that postals snuff all this out with the Liberals winning.  A further distribution is needed here.

The two most likely fourth-party chances, Thomas Emerson and Fiona Carrick, appear to have won convincingly, but there has not been a wave of "independents" as some expected. Still, these are good breakthroughs after decades of only three parties winning.

Not much really changes in the ACT in terms of the majors.  If the Liberals do manage to tie Labor's seat count that will be another tick in the box for federal drag, but nothing like the tick seen in the Northern Territory.  I am not sure the question "how can the Canberra Liberals win?" really has an answer yet, until Labor really screw things up the place is simply too left-wing,  

NSW By-Elections 2024 Live

Pittwater (Lib vs IND 0.7%), Epping (Lib 4.8%), Hornsby (Lib 8.0%) - ALP not contesting any seats

Pittwater expected IND gain, Epping and Hornsby LIB retain.  

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Updates will appear here from 6 pm, scrolling to the top.

8:08 Very distracted by ACT but a very large prepoll has come in and there is nothing dangerous there for Scruby.  Scruby's lead is too large.  

7:37 The pattern in the booth voting is quite set in Pittwater and something very radical has to happen in prepolls or it's all over and Scruby has won.  

7:11 Several more booths as well as postals in in Pittwater and things are not getting any better now for the Liberals after that aberrant third booth.  

6:57 Uneven swing between booths in Pittwater, the third one in actually swung to Ryburn on projected 2CP.   

6:51 Whopping swings to Scruby in Pittwater in the early booths, coming out at around 10% 2CP!  If this continues it will be over pretty fast.  Nothing scary for Liberals to see in the other seats, the Greens a distant second in both of them.  

6 pm: This thing is on, there's even a results page.  No action expected for at least half an hour.  

Queensland 2024: The Polls Aren't Getting Much Better For Labor

Recent polling LNP leads approx 55.5-44.5

Possible seat result of this 2PP LNP 56 ALP 29 Green 4 KAP 3 IND 1 

I last wrote about the Queensland polling leadup back five months ago - was it really that long? - in The Tide Is Going Out For Queensland Labor.  At that time, there had been a few polls out showing Labor trailing about 45-55 two-party preferred, which as I explained in the article is historically not surprising in the slightest.  Five months on and less than one to go til the election, they're still there.  

However it's not as if nothing at all has happened in the meantime.  Since my last article (which mentioned the 44-56 April YouGov and the 46-54 March Newspoll), things may have got worse and then got better for the Government.  There's no need for me to repeat all the details of polls that are recorded and linked to on Wikipedia but there was a string of shockers for the government through to early September.  On 2PP they had only 44.5% (est) in Resolve February to May, 43% (converted estimate) in Redbridge February+May (two waves, not a continuous sample), 43% in YouGov July 8-15, 45.5% in Redbridge May+August, 43% in Wolf + Smith 6-29 Aug (Wolf + Smith is a sort of Resolve spinoff), and 42% (est and possibly generous) in Resolve July through September.  

While the Resolve type polls in this mix have the Labor primary lower than others because of their handling of the independent vote, none of these six polls had the Labor primary with a 3 in front of it, and Redbridge's first sample had the LNP as high as 47.  The average major party primary gap across these polls was 17.5 points.