PEMBROKE (ALP vs Lib 7.45% - pre-redistribution by-election margin)
Incumbent: Jo Siejka (ALP)
Welcome to the second of my three Legislative Council guide pages this year. The one for the most interesting-looking contest, the Nelson vacancy, has been doing business for some time, and the guide for Montgomery is now up too. I will be updating my voting patterns assessment as well but am waiting for the upcoming session to complete in view of the lack of data in the last 12 months so far, so I expect to do that update in the third week of April. [EDIT: I ran out of time to do this before the election!]
And there will be live coverage here of all three seats on the night of the election, expected to be Saturday May 4th.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates, campaign information, added candidates and changed assessments.
(Note: candidates may contact me once only to request a change to the link their name goes to, or additional links which will be added, or not, at my discretion. No other changes will be made on request except to correct clear factual errors. Candidates are welcome to comment in the comment section. Differences in the length of different candidate sections reflect differences in amount of available/(in my view) interesting material.)
Sunday, March 31, 2019
Sunday, March 24, 2019
2019 New South Wales Postcount: Legislative Council
Legislative Council NSW Summary:
Seats assumed won based on incomplete count Coalition 8 Labor 6 Green 2 One Nation 1 Shooters Fishers and Farmers 1
(2015 results and continuing MLCs were Coalition 9 Labor 7 Green 2 Shooters 1 Christian Dems 1 Animal Justice 1).
Summary of contest:
Close multi-party contest for remaining three seats. Count is extremely complex. The ABC website has been projecting seats as won directly off the check count and this is very unreliable.
Labor (#7) and One Nation (#2) currently appear well placed for two of these seats after preferences, though One Nation is vulnerable to leakage.
A preference race will occur between four parties for the final seat: Christian Democrats (now leading), Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Keep Sydney Open. Keep Sydney Open appears to be struggling to catch Animal Justice. Animal Justice appear to have at least realistic prospects of beating the other two after preferences.
Sustainable Australia was competitive earlier in the count but its primary vote does not appear to be sufficient.
Seats assumed won based on incomplete count Coalition 8 Labor 6 Green 2 One Nation 1 Shooters Fishers and Farmers 1
(2015 results and continuing MLCs were Coalition 9 Labor 7 Green 2 Shooters 1 Christian Dems 1 Animal Justice 1).
Summary of contest:
Close multi-party contest for remaining three seats. Count is extremely complex. The ABC website has been projecting seats as won directly off the check count and this is very unreliable.
Labor (#7) and One Nation (#2) currently appear well placed for two of these seats after preferences, though One Nation is vulnerable to leakage.
A preference race will occur between four parties for the final seat: Christian Democrats (now leading), Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Keep Sydney Open. Keep Sydney Open appears to be struggling to catch Animal Justice. Animal Justice appear to have at least realistic prospects of beating the other two after preferences.
Sustainable Australia was competitive earlier in the count but its primary vote does not appear to be sufficient.
2019 New South Wales Postcount: Lismore
(Link to main postcount thread)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LISMORE (2015 margin Nat 2.9% vs Green 2CP, Nat 0.2% vs Country Labor 2PP)
Key questions:
1. Who will be second after preferences between Janelle Saffin (Country Labor) and Sue Higginson (Greens)
Outlook: Very likely to be Saffin and assumed to be so given that both Nats and Greens have conceded.
2. If Saffin is second after preferences, who wins between Saffin (Country Labor) and Austin Curtin (Nationals)?
Outlook: Saffin
3. If Higginson is second after preferences, who wins between Higginson (Green) and Curtin (Nationals)?
Outlook: Probably Curtin, but there are no direct data on this
Overall outlook: Saffin (Country Labor) strongly expected to win
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LISMORE (2015 margin Nat 2.9% vs Green 2CP, Nat 0.2% vs Country Labor 2PP)
Key questions:
1. Who will be second after preferences between Janelle Saffin (Country Labor) and Sue Higginson (Greens)
Outlook: Very likely to be Saffin and assumed to be so given that both Nats and Greens have conceded.
2. If Saffin is second after preferences, who wins between Saffin (Country Labor) and Austin Curtin (Nationals)?
Outlook: Saffin
3. If Higginson is second after preferences, who wins between Higginson (Green) and Curtin (Nationals)?
Outlook: Probably Curtin, but there are no direct data on this
Overall outlook: Saffin (Country Labor) strongly expected to win
2019 New South Wales Wrap And Lower House Postcount
The Berejilklian Government has been returned with a very small majority
Expected final result Coalition 48 Labor 36 Green 3 Ind 3 SF+F 3
Seats changing hands
Barwon (Nat to SF+F)
Murray (Nat to SF+F)
Coogee (Liberal to Labor)
Lismore (Nat to ALP) link to Lismore thread
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This thread will give some summary remarks about the NSW Lower House count (which may be updated if necessary) and will also follow the postcount in a few undecided seats where only two candidates are in contention. Lismore has thrown up another three-cornered contest that is of special interest and it will get its own thread.
Expected final result Coalition 48 Labor 36 Green 3 Ind 3 SF+F 3
Seats changing hands
Barwon (Nat to SF+F)
Murray (Nat to SF+F)
Coogee (Liberal to Labor)
Lismore (Nat to ALP) link to Lismore thread
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This thread will give some summary remarks about the NSW Lower House count (which may be updated if necessary) and will also follow the postcount in a few undecided seats where only two candidates are in contention. Lismore has thrown up another three-cornered contest that is of special interest and it will get its own thread.
Saturday, March 23, 2019
2019 NSW Election Live Comments
Summary
Coalition has won the election - probably with a small majority
Apparent wins Coalition 45 Labor 35 Green 3 Ind 3 SF+F 3, 4 in doubt
(Apparent wins are not necessarily all confirmed)
Apparent seat changes:
Barwon (Nat to SF+F) - but need to wait for Broken Hill booths
Murray (Nat to SF+F)
Coogee (Liberal to Labor)
In serious doubt:
Lismore (Nat vs Green vs ALP - long postcount ahead)
Dubbo (Nat vs IND - close)
In some doubt:
East Hills (Liberal leading Labor)
Upper Hunter (Liberal leading Labor)
Assumed won but at low doubt levels:
Wollondilly (Liberal vs IND - no 2CP count available)
Penrith (Liberal leading Labor)
Commentary appears below the double line with latest comments scrolling to the top - refresh frequently for new comments once count starts. Comment clearance during commentary will be slow and comments may not be replied to until very late.
Coalition has won the election - probably with a small majority
Apparent wins Coalition 45 Labor 35 Green 3 Ind 3 SF+F 3, 4 in doubt
(Apparent wins are not necessarily all confirmed)
Apparent seat changes:
Barwon (Nat to SF+F) - but need to wait for Broken Hill booths
Murray (Nat to SF+F)
Coogee (Liberal to Labor)
In serious doubt:
Lismore (Nat vs Green vs ALP - long postcount ahead)
Dubbo (Nat vs IND - close)
In some doubt:
East Hills (Liberal leading Labor)
Upper Hunter (Liberal leading Labor)
Assumed won but at low doubt levels:
Wollondilly (Liberal vs IND - no 2CP count available)
Penrith (Liberal leading Labor)
Commentary appears below the double line with latest comments scrolling to the top - refresh frequently for new comments once count starts. Comment clearance during commentary will be slow and comments may not be replied to until very late.
Friday, March 22, 2019
NSW 2019: Final Day Roundup
SUMMARY: Polls imply likely Coalition victory, but if so, majority status is still touch and go.
This thread will cover anything I think is of interest re Saturday's election, starting with a pre-Newspoll look at where things might stand (but there is some weird stuff going on, so who knows) and followed up with anything I want to add once Newspoll (or any other late polls) come out. I'll be working in the afternoon, so don't expect updates between about 11 am - 6 pm.
This thread will cover anything I think is of interest re Saturday's election, starting with a pre-Newspoll look at where things might stand (but there is some weird stuff going on, so who knows) and followed up with anything I want to add once Newspoll (or any other late polls) come out. I'll be working in the afternoon, so don't expect updates between about 11 am - 6 pm.
There will be live coverage here on election night from 6:00 pm and going through til very late, and the live thread may be started earlier in the day if there is anything of special interest going on.
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Poll Roundup: Medevac Fails To Shift The Dial
2PP Aggregate: 53.4 to Labor (+0.4 since last week)
52.9% with One Nation adjustment
Labor would easily win election "held now" with about 90 seats.
In the wake of the Coalition's 50th consecutive Newspoll 2PP loss, here's another roundup of the state of federal polling, and I also include some comments about the state of seat betting, which I track in the approach to each federal election.
A few weeks back, just after the last roundup, there was a lot of hot air about a possible "Tampa moment" for the Coalition in the form of a close Ipsos poll immediately following the passing of "medevac" legislation by Labor and the crossbench. Since that Ipsos 51-49 (with the Coalition lucky to get 49 on the published primaries anyway) we've seen Newspoll at 53-47 and 54-46, Essential at 52-48 and 53-47 and a commissioned ReachTEL at 53-47. There was also a Queensland-only YouGov-Galaxy with a 6.1% swing to Labor in that state.
52.9% with One Nation adjustment
Labor would easily win election "held now" with about 90 seats.
In the wake of the Coalition's 50th consecutive Newspoll 2PP loss, here's another roundup of the state of federal polling, and I also include some comments about the state of seat betting, which I track in the approach to each federal election.
A few weeks back, just after the last roundup, there was a lot of hot air about a possible "Tampa moment" for the Coalition in the form of a close Ipsos poll immediately following the passing of "medevac" legislation by Labor and the crossbench. Since that Ipsos 51-49 (with the Coalition lucky to get 49 on the published primaries anyway) we've seen Newspoll at 53-47 and 54-46, Essential at 52-48 and 53-47 and a commissioned ReachTEL at 53-47. There was also a Queensland-only YouGov-Galaxy with a 6.1% swing to Labor in that state.
Saturday, March 9, 2019
A Token Post About Modelling The 2019 NSW Lower House Election
NSW (COALITION 52 ALP 34 GREEN 3 IND 3 SF+F 1)
Recent state polling suggests a hung parliament (approx 44 Coalition 41 ALP 3 Green 3-4 Ind 1-2 Shooters) - but there's hardly been any of it!
Update Monday 11/3: Polls over the long weekend (a uComms/ReachTEL at 51-49 to Labor and a Newspoll at 50-50) have been completely consistent with the assessments below.
Rinse and repeat ... another state election is only weeks away and there's been virtually no public polling. At this stage in the 2015 election cycle there had been five statewide polls, but so far this year there have been just two. Perhaps they will come thick and fast in the next two weeks, but I have so little hope of that that I think the best I can do is write an article complaining about the lack of polling in the hope that my article becomes out of date as soon as possible.
Anyway, to briefly poke my head through a gap in what is often a very busy few weeks of the year for me (the dreaded "AGM season"), I thought I'd post some comments about where things might be at if the very limited public polling we've seen this year is anywhere near accurate - which it may not be.
Recent state polling suggests a hung parliament (approx 44 Coalition 41 ALP 3 Green 3-4 Ind 1-2 Shooters) - but there's hardly been any of it!
Update Monday 11/3: Polls over the long weekend (a uComms/ReachTEL at 51-49 to Labor and a Newspoll at 50-50) have been completely consistent with the assessments below.
Rinse and repeat ... another state election is only weeks away and there's been virtually no public polling. At this stage in the 2015 election cycle there had been five statewide polls, but so far this year there have been just two. Perhaps they will come thick and fast in the next two weeks, but I have so little hope of that that I think the best I can do is write an article complaining about the lack of polling in the hope that my article becomes out of date as soon as possible.
Anyway, to briefly poke my head through a gap in what is often a very busy few weeks of the year for me (the dreaded "AGM season"), I thought I'd post some comments about where things might be at if the very limited public polling we've seen this year is anywhere near accurate - which it may not be.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)