Just another post to cover off on another Hare-Clark recount coming up for the Tasmanian House Of Assembly.
Former Opposition Leader Rene Hidding has resigned from parliament in dramatic circumstances. This comes days after Matthew Denholm in The Australian published reports that an unnamed woman had made historic sexual abuse claims and various related claims against an unnamed man (who could be identified by elimination, based on the details provided, as being Hidding). Hidding has very strongly denied the accusations and has counter-claimed that his accuser has fabricated the claims in order to cause him damage as part of a family dispute. He also says he intends to seek redress against The Australian, though the article did report that he had denied all aspects of the allegations.
Whatever the truth of these matters (a subject on which I have no information) Rene Hidding is entitled to be presumed innocent. Having to fight these accusations is obviously a major distraction, and he was expected to retire from politics at the end of this term if not before anyway. The claims also have a political dimension because Denholm reported the accuser as having claimed to have reported the matter to police in 2014, but Denholm also said the police had no record of this. For much of 2014, the Police Minister was Rene Hidding - so had he remained in parliament it is likely the Opposition would have hammered the government about this aspect of the claims, and conspiracy theories would have flourished. [Update: The woman involved now says she first contacted police in 2013, when Labor's David O'Byrne was Police Minister.]
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Legislative Council 2019: Nelson
I've decided to start my 2019 guide to the Legislative Council division of Nelson early this year. Firstly, I need to clear some decks for other things ahead of a very busy period ahead. Secondly there is great interest in the contest already, and thirdly I don't have to wait until the final pre-election sittings to tell you anything about the voting patterns of the incumbent, since (i) the incumbent is the current President and doesn't vote (ii) the incumbent is retiring. I will be updating my Legislative Council voting patterns assessment (last edition here) but for the time being there's not much to add, as there were only eight contested votes in all of 2018. [EDIT: I ran out of time to do this before the election!]
I will also have pages for the other two seats, Montgomery and Pembroke, some time not later than early April. And there will be live coverage here of all three seats on the night of the election, on Saturday May 4th, and through the inevitable postcount.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates, campaign information, added candidates and changed assessments.
Other guides are linked here:
Pembroke
Montgomery
I will also have pages for the other two seats, Montgomery and Pembroke, some time not later than early April. And there will be live coverage here of all three seats on the night of the election, on Saturday May 4th, and through the inevitable postcount.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates, campaign information, added candidates and changed assessments.
Other guides are linked here:
Pembroke
Montgomery
Friday, February 15, 2019
Poll Roundup: Mixed Start To Year For Struggling Government
(17/2: Ipsos update added at the bottom. Also, Not-A-Poll added in sidebar: predict the next Newspoll 2PP)
2PP Aggregate: 53.7% to Labor (last-election preferences) (-0.4 since end of polling season last year)
53.2% to Labor with One Nation adjustment
Labor would easily win election "held now"
Government is now Australia's longest continually-trailing government in polling ever
Time for another roundup of the federal polling picture in the lead-up to an election expected to be held in mid to late May. At the end of last year the Coalition's polling had been going slowly downhill after the initial recovery from the shock caused by the messy removal of former PM Turnbull. Early this year there were some early signs things might be improving, but a bad Essential poll this week has somewhat muddied the waters. In this article I'll just be discussing voting intention and leadership ratings as it is long enough without covering more.
This week has been a dramatic week in parliament and we still have to see how that plays out. However, a change to laws affecting medical treatment of people on Manus Island and Nauru is not the same thing as an incident like the Tampa, the 2002 Bali bombings and the 9/11 attacks - all of which produced substantial poll movements. The law change may lead to a major incident (perhaps orchestrated) which could affect polling, but here is how things stand for the time being.
2PP Aggregate: 53.7% to Labor (last-election preferences) (-0.4 since end of polling season last year)
53.2% to Labor with One Nation adjustment
Labor would easily win election "held now"
Government is now Australia's longest continually-trailing government in polling ever
Time for another roundup of the federal polling picture in the lead-up to an election expected to be held in mid to late May. At the end of last year the Coalition's polling had been going slowly downhill after the initial recovery from the shock caused by the messy removal of former PM Turnbull. Early this year there were some early signs things might be improving, but a bad Essential poll this week has somewhat muddied the waters. In this article I'll just be discussing voting intention and leadership ratings as it is long enough without covering more.
This week has been a dramatic week in parliament and we still have to see how that plays out. However, a change to laws affecting medical treatment of people on Manus Island and Nauru is not the same thing as an incident like the Tampa, the 2002 Bali bombings and the 9/11 attacks - all of which produced substantial poll movements. The law change may lead to a major incident (perhaps orchestrated) which could affect polling, but here is how things stand for the time being.
Monday, February 11, 2019
How Federal Crossbenchers Gain Seats
I expect to release another Poll Roundup later this week, but have decided to put out something else I have been working on for a while first.
This is another post about general historical trends in federal elections concerning crossbench wins (see also Independents Seldom Replace Other Independents). Recently on Twitter, Peter Brent noted that the crossbenchers who had gained seats at the last few federal elections had all done so either by winning vacant seats or by defeating unpopular incumbents.
I looked at this theme more broadly and thought it was worth posting some expanded results going further back. In federal elections, House of Representatives seats are won and lost between Labor and the Coalition frequently, and if a seat is close and the swing is on, then a personal vote only goes so far. Incumbents who have had trouble-free terms are quite often victims of a national swing to the other side. However, they are rarely defeated by anyone else.
This is another post about general historical trends in federal elections concerning crossbench wins (see also Independents Seldom Replace Other Independents). Recently on Twitter, Peter Brent noted that the crossbenchers who had gained seats at the last few federal elections had all done so either by winning vacant seats or by defeating unpopular incumbents.
I looked at this theme more broadly and thought it was worth posting some expanded results going further back. In federal elections, House of Representatives seats are won and lost between Labor and the Coalition frequently, and if a seat is close and the swing is on, then a personal vote only goes so far. Incumbents who have had trouble-free terms are quite often victims of a national swing to the other side. However, they are rarely defeated by anyone else.
Adam Brooks' Resignation And Replacement
A very quick post to cover off on the mechanics of the countback to replace Adam Brooks, who has resigned as a Liberal Member for Braddon, effective tomorrow. There has been speculation Brooks might resign soon for months, so I've already looked at the numbers for this in the past.
In Hare-Clark, casual vacancies are filled by what is confusingly called a recount (I often call it "countback") of the votes the sitting MP had when they were elected. If the sitting MP had more than a quota at the time of their election, the last parcel of votes they received is modified in value to bring them down to a quota. If they had less than a quota, the preferences of the last losing candidate(s) can be thrown to attempt to bring them to quota.
Whether an unsuccessful candidate got close to being elected the first time around or not is irrelevant to this process. All that matters are the votes (including preferences) held by the resigning member. Thus, for instance, if Rosalie Woodruff were to resign in Franklin, she would be replaced by another Green, and not by Nic Street who she very narrowly defeated for the final seat.
Adam Brooks was originally elected after polling 10004 primary votes (the quota was 10718) and receiving enough votes on Jeremy Rockliff's surplus to cross the line. The 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes (2635 of them) will make up the remaining 714 votes for the recount.
The original scrutiny sheet tell us which unsuccessful candidate about 426 of those 714 votes will go to, if all unsuccessful candidates recontested. Joan Rylah would get 61%, Felix Ellis would get 30% and no other candidate would get more than 2% by themselves. (If no candidate gets 50% of the initial votes in a recount, then there is a distribution of preferences as in a single-seat election, but I'm not expecting that to be the case here).
The original scrutiny sheet doesn't contain any direct information on where the remaining 10292 votes go (these are mostly 1 Brooks with a few 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks 3 Jaensch, Dow or Broad). Party scrutineers may have this information. However we do know that not only did Rylah outperform Ellis by about two to one on the known 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes, but also that Rylah outperformed Ellis 3436-1842 on primaries, 1196-523 on Rockliff preferences, and 675-470 on the preferences of all remaining candidates. Based on this it would be a massive surprise if Ellis outperformed Rylah on the preferences of Adam Brooks. Rylah as a sitting MP was simply the much higher profile candidate.
Had Rylah not nominated for the recount but Ellis had, Ellis would have won. Had neither recontested, he government would have had the never-used option of requesting a single-member by-election rather than allowing their seat to go to another party. (I do hope I live to see one of those someday!)
This doesn't look like being an interesting recount but I just thought I should put the details of how it works out there anyway. And one note of interest - if Rylah resumes her career, the Tasmanian parliament will have a majority of female MPs, with 14/25 in the House of Assembly and 7/15 in the Legislative Council, at least until May. In May, one male MLC is retiring and two female MLCs are defending their seats.
Update Feb 25: The recount is on today. I expect the winner to be known by the end of the day unless it is unexpectedly close between Rylah and Ellis. Ellis had to resign his job with Senator Colbeck to contest the vacancy, but I expect this is a temporary Commonwealth requirement and he can be reappointed.
Update: Rylah wins with 53.6% to 37.2%. We now have another recount coming following the shock resignation of Rene Hidding; this will be won by John Tucker assuming he contests.
In Hare-Clark, casual vacancies are filled by what is confusingly called a recount (I often call it "countback") of the votes the sitting MP had when they were elected. If the sitting MP had more than a quota at the time of their election, the last parcel of votes they received is modified in value to bring them down to a quota. If they had less than a quota, the preferences of the last losing candidate(s) can be thrown to attempt to bring them to quota.
Whether an unsuccessful candidate got close to being elected the first time around or not is irrelevant to this process. All that matters are the votes (including preferences) held by the resigning member. Thus, for instance, if Rosalie Woodruff were to resign in Franklin, she would be replaced by another Green, and not by Nic Street who she very narrowly defeated for the final seat.
Adam Brooks was originally elected after polling 10004 primary votes (the quota was 10718) and receiving enough votes on Jeremy Rockliff's surplus to cross the line. The 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes (2635 of them) will make up the remaining 714 votes for the recount.
The original scrutiny sheet tell us which unsuccessful candidate about 426 of those 714 votes will go to, if all unsuccessful candidates recontested. Joan Rylah would get 61%, Felix Ellis would get 30% and no other candidate would get more than 2% by themselves. (If no candidate gets 50% of the initial votes in a recount, then there is a distribution of preferences as in a single-seat election, but I'm not expecting that to be the case here).
The original scrutiny sheet doesn't contain any direct information on where the remaining 10292 votes go (these are mostly 1 Brooks with a few 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks 3 Jaensch, Dow or Broad). Party scrutineers may have this information. However we do know that not only did Rylah outperform Ellis by about two to one on the known 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes, but also that Rylah outperformed Ellis 3436-1842 on primaries, 1196-523 on Rockliff preferences, and 675-470 on the preferences of all remaining candidates. Based on this it would be a massive surprise if Ellis outperformed Rylah on the preferences of Adam Brooks. Rylah as a sitting MP was simply the much higher profile candidate.
Had Rylah not nominated for the recount but Ellis had, Ellis would have won. Had neither recontested, he government would have had the never-used option of requesting a single-member by-election rather than allowing their seat to go to another party. (I do hope I live to see one of those someday!)
This doesn't look like being an interesting recount but I just thought I should put the details of how it works out there anyway. And one note of interest - if Rylah resumes her career, the Tasmanian parliament will have a majority of female MPs, with 14/25 in the House of Assembly and 7/15 in the Legislative Council, at least until May. In May, one male MLC is retiring and two female MLCs are defending their seats.
Update Feb 25: The recount is on today. I expect the winner to be known by the end of the day unless it is unexpectedly close between Rylah and Ellis. Ellis had to resign his job with Senator Colbeck to contest the vacancy, but I expect this is a temporary Commonwealth requirement and he can be reappointed.
Update: Rylah wins with 53.6% to 37.2%. We now have another recount coming following the shock resignation of Rene Hidding; this will be won by John Tucker assuming he contests.
Friday, February 1, 2019
Not-A-Poll: Best State Premiers Of The Last 40 Years: More Rd 2 Results And Runoffs
Just a quick update post for this site's gradual quest to find a reader's pick for the title of Best State Premier Of The Last 40 Years. We are getting closer to starting the rounds for the state winners, but there's still a little bit more voting to go.
Over the last few months there was a very close WA runoff after the previous runoff was tied between Geoff Gallop and Carmen Lawrence. In the end Gallop has defeated Lawrence 75-71 and advances to the winners' rounds.
Voting is now open in the sidebar - for two months - on the deferred Victorian runoff between Steve Bracks and Daniel Andrews (the only incumbent Premier still in the contest). Voting for this runoff was deferred to try to get a little clear air from the Victorian state election. As Andrews now has a victory on a similar scale to Bracks' wins under his belt, it will be interesting to see how this goes.
Voting is also continuing in the consolation prize for the best non-Labor Premier that I have offered in view of the left-wing skew of this site's readerbase. In the second round of this runoff held during December, the following were the results:
Over the last few months there was a very close WA runoff after the previous runoff was tied between Geoff Gallop and Carmen Lawrence. In the end Gallop has defeated Lawrence 75-71 and advances to the winners' rounds.
Voting is now open in the sidebar - for two months - on the deferred Victorian runoff between Steve Bracks and Daniel Andrews (the only incumbent Premier still in the contest). Voting for this runoff was deferred to try to get a little clear air from the Victorian state election. As Andrews now has a victory on a similar scale to Bracks' wins under his belt, it will be interesting to see how this goes.
Voting is also continuing in the consolation prize for the best non-Labor Premier that I have offered in view of the left-wing skew of this site's readerbase. In the second round of this runoff held during December, the following were the results:
Total Votes: 134
Hodgman (who was the only current Premier still in that one) is eliminated, leaving four. Voting will run for one month and then there will be another round in March if required. The winner will be wild-carded into the final alongside all that Labor mob, to give the righties somebody to vote for.
Update Feb 28: Greiner has won the next round too, but didn't quite make 50%.
Joh is eliminated leaving Greiner, Carnell and Kennett.
Update Feb 28: Greiner has won the next round too, but didn't quite make 50%.
Total Votes: 120
Joh is eliminated leaving Greiner, Carnell and Kennett.
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