Wednesday, January 24, 2018

2018 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Franklin

This is my Franklin electorate guide for the 2018 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2018 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)

Franklin (Currently 3 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green). 
Eastern shore Hobart (Clarence City), much of Kingborough, Huon Valley, D'Entrecasteaux Channel
Urban/outer urban/treechange/rural

Declared Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates is large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

The order of parties across the ballot paper is SF+F, Greens, Labor, Liberal



Candidates

Liberal

Will Hodgman, incumbent, Premier since 2014, party leader since 2006, backing vocals, guitar
Jacquie Petrusma, incumbent, Minister for Human Services, Minister for Women, conservative on social issues
Nic Street, first-term incumbent (countback during term), previously Kingborough councillor, liberal on social issues
Claire Chandler, senior risk analyst at Deloitte Australia, former federal Young Liberal President
Simon Duffy, staffer to Petrusma, former youth worker, disability services background

Labor

Kathryn Barnsley, medical researcher (PhD 2016), anti-tobacco advocate, supporter of Ivan Dean's Tobacco-Free Generation proposal.
Heather Chong, Clarence city councillor, small businesswoman, also ran in 2014
Kevin Midson, Australian Workers' Union organiser
David O'Byrne, past MHA for seat (2010-2014), sometime leadership contender, extensive union background, with Beacon Foundation during term off
Alison Standen, public servant (health/community), Department of Social Services state manager, former Smith Family manager, said to be first openly gay Tasmanian Labor candidate

Congratulations to former Premier Lara Giddings (not recontesting) who has found an ingenious twist on the cliche of resigning to spend more time with one's family.  She's created a new family member to spend time with.

Greens

Greens candidates appear in what I believe to be endorsed ticket order

Rosalie Woodruff, first-term incumbent (countback during term), epidemiologist (PhD), former Huon Valley councillor, 2013 Greens federal candidate for seat
Richard Atkinson, first-term Kingborough councillor, engineer, software development and telecommunications worker
Holly Ewin, florist, early childhood educator, student
Ross Lincolne, scientist (satellite image processing and remote sensing)
Lachlan Hatfield, IT industry service representative

Shooters, Fishers + Farmers

Brendon Hext, armoured truck operator, gun owner

Prospects for Franklin

The Liberals won their third seat fairly narrowly in 2014, with long-term Legislative Councillor Paul Harriss beating David O'Byrne by 1768 votes.  Harriss then did not see out his term.  All else being equal, just a 2% swing from Liberal to Labor would take care of the third seat.  The state swing has been much greater in every state poll in the last two years, and Franklin samples have only suggested a slightly lower swing in Franklin than anywhere else.  So a huge amount has to go right in the campaign generally for the Liberals and wrong for Labor for there to be any real chance of holding on here.  A different path for the Liberals to save their third seat would be to beat the Greens, but since that probably requires the Greens losing about as many votes as the Liberals do, it doesn't seem likely.

Hodgman will secure his usual massive vote, but what happens behind him gets messy.  Petrusma polled well in 2014 but her term has been plagued with child-protection issues (in fairness, an even worse area for the previous government) with another adverse report just as I write.  So will it be goodbye to the weakest link in the Hodgman ministry?  Not necessarily, because Street got only just over a thousand votes last time and has had the usual struggle to establish profile of a candidate elected through a mid-term countback.  He's certainly set himself apart with a striking speech on same-sex marriage and the lone Liberal vote for voluntary assisted dying, but not all those who applauded those are people who would even think of voting Liberal.

For Labor, O'Byrne has a high profile and only lost last time because two into one doesn't go and his within-party opponent was the Premier.  Midson was prominently unveiled a few weeks ahead of Standen and Chong and seems to be running hard (Barnsley was selected much more recently.)  So, could well be two union blokes, but I'll keep an eye on Standen's vote as she is quite high-profile. Also, are O'Byrne and Midson too similar for both to win?

For Labor to win three would require a monumental swing, and even then would be a tall order without any incumbents.

The Mercury ReachTEL appeared to point to 2-2-1.  However, adjusting those results for ReachTEL's history of skewing to the Greens suggests the Green seat might be in danger to the Liberals.

Outlook:  Probably 2-2-13-2-0 is an outside chance, Labor appears to be strong enough in polling to avoid 3-1-1.

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(Disclosure: The Midson family is known to me through chess - the candidate's father Michael has been treasurer of my chess club and one of its precursors for over 30 years.)

2 comments:

  1. You decide where your preferences go, the parties have no control over it. Number the boxes (at least five but I recommend all) and if your #1 candidate is excluded, your vote flows on at full value to the next candidate on your list (unless they've already won or lost in which case it flows to the next one and so on)

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    Replies
    1. (Sorry, I mistakenly deleted the comment I was replying to there, and can't get it back. It was by poster Curious and read "How do I find out Pre Election Day where preferences for my votes will go? Cheers")

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