2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Franklin

This is my Franklin electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Franklin (3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

Eastern shore Hobart (Clarence City), much of Kingborough, Huon Valley, D'Entrecasteaux Channel

Urban/outer urban/treechange/rural

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

Liberal

Jacquie Petrusma, incumbent, earlier MHA 2010-22, minister Health, Aboriginal Affairs, Veterans Affairs

Eric Abetz, first term state incumbent, Liberal Senator for Tasmania 1994-2022, Senate Leader for Abbott Govt, famous uberconservative, Leader of the House, Minister for Business, Transport

Nic Street, incumbent, backbencher, former Minister Housing, Sport and Rec, etc

Josh Garvin, former President Tas and Vice-President Aus Young Liberals, former staffer for Madeleine Ogilvie, 2025 federal candidate for seat (more profile here)

Michele Howlett, owner of hair salon Gloss Hair Management

Natasha Miller, adviser to Petrusma and formerly Young, cancer charity fundraiser and former logistics firm manager

Dean Young, newsagent, advisor to Guy Barnett, MP for part of previous term after being elected on recount

Labor

Dean Winter, incumbent, Leader of the Opposition, Shadow Minister Jobs, Trade, Tourism, former Mayor of Kingborough

Meg Brown, first-term incumbent, formerly Sorell Councillor and staffer for David O'Byrne, Shadow Minister Transport, Heritage, Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence

Kaspar Deane, Kingborough Councillor, public school teacher

Traycee Di Virgilio, board member in building and construction industry and WHS chair St Josephs Affordable Homes

Chris Hannan, National President Aus Association of Social Workers, relationship therapist (own business), recent former Jacqui Lambie Network secretary and 2024 Franklin and 2025 Senate JLN candidate

Amelia Meyers, teaching student, reportedly Australia's youngest 2025 Senate candidate

Jessica Munday, high-profile Secretary of Unions Tasmania, President Worker Assist legal service, superannuation board member

Greens

Rosalie Woodruff, Greens Leader, incumbent, epidemiologist (Ph.D.) (lead candidate)

(other Greens candidates to be added)

Independents

David O'Byrne, incumbent, former prominent unionist, briefly Labor leader in 2021, elected as independent in 2024

Tamar Cordover, works in empowering rural women with disabilities, Master of Research candidate examining inclusive justice system reform, also ran in 2024

Peter George, veteran former ABC foreign correspondent, reporter and producer, prominent anti-salmon-farm campaigner who made final two in seat in federal election

Hans Willink,  IT and project assurance consultant, background in army and police, serial candidate usually as an independent (distant past Liberal Party, Science Party)

For details re David O'Byrne's forced switch from Labor to Independent, essentially over a sexual harassment incident from before his parliamentary career, see my 2024 Franklin guide.  During this term O'Byrne has provided conditional confidence and supply support for the Rockliff Government but caused the resignation of Michael Ferguson from Cabinet by withdrawing it from Ferguson specifically.

Prospects for Franklin

Franklin is generally a better seat for the Liberals than Clark, but is stronger for the left than Bass, Braddon and Lyons and has a high Green vote.  The Liberals would have only won three seats here under the 35-seat system in 2018 and 2021 and only fairly narrowly did win three seats here under it in 2024.  At this election, Franklin is the most obviously "bases loaded" seat; nine potential seat winners into seven doesn't go, and that's even before we talk about the second seat the Greens got close to last time.

In 2024 the Liberals polled 34.1% (2.72 quotas), Labor 27.3% (2.18), Greens 19.8% (1.58), David O'Byrne 8.7% (0.70), JLN 4.9 (0.38) and there were various minor preference sources.  This led to a rather interesting cut-up where the Greens benefited from preferences but the Liberals were helped by their votes being split fairly evenly between Street, Abetz and Petrusma. The Greens also suffered from a high rate of within-ticket leakage.  Eventually Street won the final seat by 2.2% (0.17 Q).

George in Franklin at the federal election polled a primary vote of 21.7%.  This doesn't mean he'll get anything like that in the state election, but even a third of that might be enough.  He had three advantages in the federal race: Climate 200 funding, the Liberal candidate being low-profile and incapable of winning, and the Green candidate withdrawing from the campaign over Section 44 issues.  I am not sure the Section 44 issue had all that much impact on the Greens' vote as I think George would have taken a big chunk out of it in any case.  What I expect to see here is that George takes the place of the second Green in the cutup and surge on Greens preferences - as we saw with Garland last time, an independent cannot leak.  I'm not certain George will win but he is at least a serious prospect.

A two-party swing just above 3% would see Labor tie the Liberals on quotas but Labor will probably be disadvantaged a little by their vote being more concentrated with Winter.   On the Liberal side Abetz has had a successful term with the great entertainment value of his parliamentary performances winning over some critics who never expected they would like him on any level.  It is possible that Street will be defending the third seat.

Even if George wins, Labor could still take a seat at the Liberals' expense on the condition that O'Byrne loses.  A big part of the case for this is that unions that supported O'Byrne in 2024 now look to be getting behind Labor, with Munday's candidacy likely to help here.  Munday is herself a somewhat controversial pick because of past alleged links to O'Byrne, but it seems in general that the standard in Labor is that it's OK to have supported O'Byrne, it's just not convenient anymore to be him.    O'Byrne may also suffer in traditional Labor communities from supporting the Rockliff government - on the other hands he does stand out as an overtly pro-stadium non-major-party candidate, and his electorate work is generally considered strong.  Munday is clearly Labor's biggest push for a third seat here in an electorate where Labor absolutely has to win at least three.

Outlook for Franklin: As a first attempt prior to any polling, 2-3-1-1 (Liberal-Labor-Green-IND) with George replacing O'Byrne may be the favourite.  Many other things are possible.