SEATS APPARENTLY WON LIB 25 ALP 19 IND 3
(Mawson was in doubt but retained by Labor)
Expected Legislative Council result 4 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 SA-BEST, 1 Green
This thread will provide some general comments on the South Australian election and will also follow the post-counting in the few seats in doubt. The post-counting comments will not be updated all that regularly as I took three days off work to follow the Tasmanian post-count and should probably get back to earning some money. I'll try to check every day or so to see if there's anything worth noting.
The Liberal Opposition led by Steven Marshall has won the election, and is more or less certain to have an outright majority. If it did fall short in a seat somewhere because of some freakish postcount result, Troy Bell could be counted on for support.
This is only the seventh case since 1969 of an Opposition winning an election while the same party is in power federally; for the previous six see here. On the other hand, it confirms two other historic patterns: that governments no longer seem to go on forever (it is now 32 years since any state or federal government older than 16 years was returned) and that unpopular state premiers don't get re-elected.
Showing posts with label SA 2018. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SA 2018. Show all posts
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Saturday, March 17, 2018
2018 South Australian Election Night Live
SUMMARY:
From base of notional 25-19-3 seat distribution:
Apparent Liberal gain: King
Possible Labor gain: Mawson (in some doubt)
In doubt: Adelaide (Lib ahead), Newland (Lib ahead)
Outcome: Liberals have won, almost certainly in majority, most likely result 25-19-3 or 26-18-3.
Note: I will try to clear comments tonight but don't expect replies
Updates (Refresh for latest)
11:42: The ABC has turned off the projection, meaning that some seats that were projected as easy wins have dropped back into in-doubt status. Of these Adelaide is the closest with a current real margin of just 67 votes. Here in 2014, booth votes went 51.6% to Liberal but declaration votes went 54.5% to Liberal. So while the seat can be projected to about 51-49 we have to wait and see if the pattern repeats. Some doubt can also be entertained about Newland, where we have a 50.9-49.1 margin on booth votes, but in 2014, declaration votes were overall weaker for the Liberals than booth votes, and this time there will be a greater proportion of declaration votes that are prepolls. Note that in each of these cases I am not necessarily matching exactly the same voting areas, which creates some further issues.
From base of notional 25-19-3 seat distribution:
Apparent Liberal gain: King
Possible Labor gain: Mawson (in some doubt)
In doubt: Adelaide (Lib ahead), Newland (Lib ahead)
Outcome: Liberals have won, almost certainly in majority, most likely result 25-19-3 or 26-18-3.
Note: I will try to clear comments tonight but don't expect replies
Updates (Refresh for latest)
11:42: The ABC has turned off the projection, meaning that some seats that were projected as easy wins have dropped back into in-doubt status. Of these Adelaide is the closest with a current real margin of just 67 votes. Here in 2014, booth votes went 51.6% to Liberal but declaration votes went 54.5% to Liberal. So while the seat can be projected to about 51-49 we have to wait and see if the pattern repeats. Some doubt can also be entertained about Newland, where we have a 50.9-49.1 margin on booth votes, but in 2014, declaration votes were overall weaker for the Liberals than booth votes, and this time there will be a greater proportion of declaration votes that are prepolls. Note that in each of these cases I am not necessarily matching exactly the same voting areas, which creates some further issues.
2018 SA Election Late Polls And Other Comments
SA: Newspoll and ReachTEL 34-31 on primary votes to Liberal
No predicted winner - too close to call
On Saturday night I will be attempting to live-comment the SA state election and the federal Batman by-election at the same time starting from 6:30. Really this shouldn't be too hard, since Batman is just one seat, so I hope it will be useful. They will be on separate threads and I will be trying to give each about equal attention to start with, though if Batman can be called quickly I will wind it down and switch to focusing purely on South Australia.
No predicted winner - too close to call
On Saturday night I will be attempting to live-comment the SA state election and the federal Batman by-election at the same time starting from 6:30. Really this shouldn't be too hard, since Batman is just one seat, so I hope it will be useful. They will be on separate threads and I will be trying to give each about equal attention to start with, though if Batman can be called quickly I will wind it down and switch to focusing purely on South Australia.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
SA Election: Some General Modelling Comments
Note to media of all kinds: this long weekend (10-12 March) I am not available for in-person interviews. My phone will be switched off most of the long weekend - you may be able to get me on Saturday morning or Monday night, or if you leave a message with an after-hours number I may be able to return your call at night on Saturday or Sunday.
Note to posters: Comment clearing may be slow and replies slower for the next few days.
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The two-week gap between this year's Tasmanian and South Australian elections means I will at least be able to do live comments on South Australia. However, the Tasmanian campaign hasn't done wonders for my ability to devote energy to the SA contest. I may be able to do another piece with more detailed modelling on South Australia next week, but I'm not sure I will have time for this yet. This piece just makes a range of general comments that I think are important to trying to model the outcome.
Note to posters: Comment clearing may be slow and replies slower for the next few days.
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The two-week gap between this year's Tasmanian and South Australian elections means I will at least be able to do live comments on South Australia. However, the Tasmanian campaign hasn't done wonders for my ability to devote energy to the SA contest. I may be able to do another piece with more detailed modelling on South Australia next week, but I'm not sure I will have time for this yet. This piece just makes a range of general comments that I think are important to trying to model the outcome.
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