Advance Summary
1. Recently all major final polls and the vast majority of analysts failed to predict the UK election correctly.
2. Random sampling error, "shy Tory effect" and late swing probably did not make major contributions to this outcome.
3. More likely causes include herding (although this has not been conclusively shown to have happened), the difficulty of estimating turnout, and the abundance of essentially non-random "panel polling" methods.
4. Australian elections are easier to poll for because almost everyone votes and because there is very little tactical voting in the Lower House.
5. Despite this there is a greater risk of high average polling errors at the next federal election because of a rapid turnover of polling ownership and methods, which will make it more difficult for pollsters to detect issues with their methods.
6. Potential for Labor support to be soft even in very late polling also appears at this very early stage to be likely to be higher than normal.
1. Recently all major final polls and the vast majority of analysts failed to predict the UK election correctly.
2. Random sampling error, "shy Tory effect" and late swing probably did not make major contributions to this outcome.
3. More likely causes include herding (although this has not been conclusively shown to have happened), the difficulty of estimating turnout, and the abundance of essentially non-random "panel polling" methods.
4. Australian elections are easier to poll for because almost everyone votes and because there is very little tactical voting in the Lower House.
5. Despite this there is a greater risk of high average polling errors at the next federal election because of a rapid turnover of polling ownership and methods, which will make it more difficult for pollsters to detect issues with their methods.
6. Potential for Labor support to be soft even in very late polling also appears at this very early stage to be likely to be higher than normal.
