Tasmania 2025: The Election Cliff

No confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff passed 18-17.

By convention Rockliff will resign unless he can secure a fresh election from the Governor.

At this stage of term Governor should seek to appoint a replacement Premier if possible.

However it seems doubtful that a stable and willing alternative government can be formed as Labor does not appear willing to form a stable government without an election.

House is sitting to pass supply after which Rockliff will request election.

Election seems highly likely.

Earliest possible date July 19.  (Latest August 9 if election granted immediately).

Governor will not make an immediate decision as of Tuesday night.  

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Election Confirmed - July 19

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Tuesday 9:40 A quick fresh post of where we are at ahead of today's sitting of State Parliament, much of this being a distilling of last week's article.  I will have some commitments during the day today and tomorrow so updates may not be instant if things happen quickly.

Last week the House of Assembly passed a motion of no confidence in the Premier Jeremy Rockliff with the support of ten Labor MHAs, five Greens, independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, and Andrew Jenner who was with the Jacqui Lambie Network (or as I am now calling it, Notwork) then but has since been dumped.  

This early in the term a Governor should seek to appoint a replacement Premier if one can be found who can satisfy Her Excellency Barbara Baker that they will have the support of the house on confidence and supply matters at least for a reasonable time.  However there has been no signs whatsoever of such a replacement emerging.

2024 Tasmanian Postcount: Bass

BASS (2021 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor - when election called 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND)

Notional 2021 7-Seat Result 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green

SEATS WON 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN 

CALLED WINNERS: Michael Ferguson (Lib), Rob Fairs (Lib), Michelle O'Byrne (ALP), Janie Finlay (ALP), Cecily Rosol (Green), Rebekah Pentland (JLN), Simon Wood (Lib)

SEAT LOST: Lara Alexander (IND)

(Links to other seat postcount pages  Braddon Clark Franklin Lyons Summary)

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This year I will do my postcount threads in alphabetical order but some may get more effort at the start than others!   A late-night update in Bass sees the Liberals with 3.04 quotas, Labor 2.40, Greens 0.95, JLN 0.65, Shooters 0.18, Animal Justice 0.12.  The independents are collectively on 0.66 quotas but none of them has any vote to speak of and Greg (Tubby) Quinn is the only one who can hold his head up high, outpolling much more fancied indies who have flopped (though Lara Alexander has just overtaken him).  The count is at 81.9% (it will finish somewhere around 90 probably) and George Town and Scottsdale prepolls are not added yet.

The Liberal vote in Bass has been trashed by an enormous swing currently running at over 20%, but when you start from a base of 60, how bad can it be?    Michael Ferguson has topped the poll with 1.44 quotas in his own right.  Rob Fairs has a little less than half of that.  Ferguson will be the only candidate elected with quota and his surplus will provide boosts to the remaining Liberal candidates.  From then on it will be a long series of exclusions from the bottom up, with occasional surpluses.  Michelle O'Byrne and Janie Finlay will be over quota pretty quickly in that process, and Rob Fairs and Cecily Rosol later.  This leaves two battles.  The first is between JLN and Labor for the last seat at party level and the second is a battle for the third Liberal position.

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.) If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Bass (2021 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor, as at election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND)

North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston

Mixed urban/small-town/rural

2021 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2021 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2021 election preview page, including links to other electorates.) If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.

Bass (Currently 3 Liberal 2 Labor). 
North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston
Mixed urban/small-town/rural

2018 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2018 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2018 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)

Bass (Currently 3 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green). 
North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston
Mixed urban/small-town/rural

Declared Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates is large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.