2025 Senate Notes Part Two

This is part two of a detailed review that I write after each Senate election.  See part one for a general introduction and coverage of proportionality, winning vote shares, preferencing impacts and the curse of Inclusive Gregory.  This part covers Senate 2PP, How to Vote cards, just-voting-1, exhaust, informals, below the lines, and poor performances.

Senate 2PP

Senate 2PP is useful especially for looking at personal votes in the House of Representatives - how an MP does in Reps 2PP relative to their party's Senate 2PP in similar seats may give an insight into how popular they are.  I determine Senate 2PP by adding the above-the-line two-party preferred vote between the two major parties to the below-the-line two-candidate preferred vote between the lead candidates of the two parties.  It has only been a useful measure to calculate since Group Ticket Voting was abolished.

Because preferences in the Senate are semi-optional, Senate 2PP can tend to amplify a clear winner because of exhausted votes, and it also tends to favour Labor in that the 2PP exhaust rate off Greens votes is very low compared to other parties.  The previous election Senate 2PPs were: 2016 50.08 to Labor,  2019 52.66 to Coalition and 2022 52.93 to ALP.  At this election Labor won the Senate 2PP 56.76-43.24, a 3.83% swing.

NSW 56.54 (+5.34)
Vic 57.13 (+1.21)
Qld 52.12 (+4.55)
WA 58.16 (+0.96)
SA 60.42 (+6.67)
Tas 64.00 (+8.96)
ACT 72.34 (+6.00)
NT 54.97 (+2.16)

Senate 2PP doesn't gauge the performance of other parties; thus Labor won three seats in Victoria with a lower 2PP than WA where it missed out.

2025 Senate Notes Part One

This is the latest in a string of articles that I write after each Senate election tracking certain themes in the Senate races.  Previous volumes in the series were called Senate Reform Performance Review, referring to the 2016 Senate changes that got rid of Group Ticket Voting.  I think now we've reached the point after four elections where it's very clear that the new system works very well indeed and needs no longer to be considered on probation, hence the shorter title.  For previous instalments see 2016 part one, 2016 part two, 2019 (single article) and 2022 (single article).  On the agenda for this issue are:  proportionality, winning vote shares (with a focus on the One Nation wins from behind), preferencing impacts, and the curse of Inclusive Gregory.  Part two covers Senate 2PP, How to Vote cards, just-voting-1, exhaust, informals, below the lines,  and the fun bit about people who we wonder why they bother.   And yes that includes the ACT Liberals! 

I've decided again to split the article into two because the volume of material this time is a bit much for one go.  At least for my own feeling that I'm spending a lot of time on a single article that I haven't released anything from yet.  

In this article I treat Labor, Greens and Pocock as comprising the left of the Senate (in relative terms, this should not be taken as me declaring Labor to be an outright left-wing party) and Coalition, One Nation and UAP as the right (with Jacqui Lambie treated as neither though these days there is a case for treating her as left if anything).  

2025 Senate Button Press Thread

Welcome to my 2025 thread to cover the so-called "button presses" (in fact the execution of a computer routine) that distribute preferences for the Senate and determines the Senate results.  

I have not had nearly as much time to work on projecting the Senate counts this election as in the past because it's been impossible to get away from the complexity and number of the in-doubt House of Reps counts for long and because of other work commitments.  In particular I probably would have been able to call Tasmania if I had had the time to do a few days scrutineering (and had been able to find anyone willing to appoint me) but such things were not to be.  

On this thread states/territories will appear once there are no unapportioned votes shown as awaiting data entry.  Normally based on past practice the button press follows a few days after that with the declaration shortly after (in the absence of any recount request that might be caused by a micro-close margin).  Until I have seen a state reach zero unapportioned votes, commentary about it continues on the previous National Senate postcount thread.  

2025 Senate Postcounts: National Thread

Discussion of counts that have finished or reached zero unapportioned votes now appears on the button press thread.  

FINAL WINS ALP 16 L-NP 13 GREEN 6 ON 3 POCOCK 1 JLN 1

CARRIED OVER ALP 12 L-NP 14 GRN 5 ON 1 UAP 1 defectors 3

IF PROJECTED LEADS HOLD ALP 28 L-NP 27 Grn 11 ON 4 Pocock 1 UAP 1 Lambie 1 defectors 3 (Payman, Tyrrell, Thorpe)

ALP/GRN will have combined outright majority.

ALP + non-Green others will have a blocking majority (38).  

2025 Tasmania Senate Postcount

2025 TASMANIA SENATE

CALLED ELECTED Carol Brown (ALP #1), Richard Dowling (ALP #2), Claire Chandler (LIB #1), Nick McKim (Green #1)

CONTEST Richard Colbeck (Liberal #2, incumbent) vs Bailey Falls (ALP #3) vs Jacqui Lambie (JLN #1) for two seats.

Lee Hanson (One Nation) has polled well but does not appear to be in contention.

Projection of current live count after preferences has Lambie ahead of Colbeck ahead of Falls - however margins in projection are fairly close and this assumes preferences flow the same way as in 2022 (they may not!)

One Nation preference flow is likely to be crucial to result

WARNING: Projecting the Tasmanian Senate count is very complex.  This article is rated Wonk Factor 4/5

Tasmania Senate 2025: Prospects and Guide

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SUMMARY: 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN unless something very unusual happens

Tasmania's list of Senate candidates has been released.  Tasmania has 33 candidates in 12 groups with one ungrouped, down from 39 candidates in 14 groups plus two ungrouped in 2022.  Of the groups that ran columns last time, one has disbanded voluntarily (Local Party/Network), one isn't running, and two have in a messy sense merged forces.  One group that didn't run last time is running (Australian Citizens); they ran as Citizens Electoral Council in 2019.  FUSION had declared a candidate for 2025 but weren't able to lock in a second so didn't run.  

This piece gives some basic information and views about the parties and lead candidates, and some general background to the contest.  The party candidate section includes a lot of opinions about candidates and parties, and it is normal for this article to display more whims, snark and subjectivity than some of my other guides.  Parties that are not what they seem and candidates who don't impress me will be called out as per normal.   More content will be added in as time permits, so it may be worth checking back before voting to see if I've added any more details re candidates.

Prospects for the 2025 Senate Election

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Donations welcome!

If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site.  The sidebar (scroll down and click on "view web version" if viewing via mobile) has Paypal or PayID instructions or email me via the address in my profile for my account details.  Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.
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This is a general (and maths-heavy) piece giving assessments of the 2025 half-Senate election in each state and territory and overall. A detailed Senate guide for Tasmania will be released soon after the announcement of nominations for the state.  Firstly, a look at which Senate seats are up for grabs at this election and which are continuing until 2028 (barring a double dissolution):

At present Labor holds 25 of the 76 seats.  Labor can pass legislation supported by the Greens (11 seats) and any three of a crossbench of 11.  The crossbench consists of David Pocock, ex-Greens defector Lidia Thorpe, ex-Labor defector Fatima Payman, Jacqui Lambie, ex-Lambie defector Tammy Tyrrell, two One Nation Senators, Ralph Babet (UAP, which still exists for parliamentary purposes), and two ex-Coalition defectors. The ability to block enquiries, motions and disallowances in the Senate is also very important and hereLabor and the Greens combined need two votes.