This post follows post-counting in seats being contested between the Liberal Party and teal independents.
The Victorian election has been a shocker for independents. Firstly they've failed to replicate the 2.6% swing to them at the federal election and remained on 6% of the primary vote (as correctly picked by Resolve in their final poll which was the only final poll to offer a clear demarcation of "independents"). Secondly they've been unlucky with the distribution of that vote, and look like they could come away with about five second places but no wins. The rural seats of Benambra and Mildura closed up in late counting last night, but Benambra is 78.5% counted so I greatly doubt it's going to move into my frame. There are two seats where teals are currently trailing by not very much that I will cover here. In Kew, the Liberals' smart preselection of a female candidate likely to appeal to teal voters in Jess Wilson has succeeded in warding off the teal challenge. Teals have also failed to register any vote of consequence in a few seats where they were touted as contenders, especially Brighton and Caulfield.
One might say the poor result of teals at this election is because they were a federal protest movement with no relevance to a state Labor government, or because they were unable to be as well-funded as the federal teals. I think there's more though, and I was especially intrigued by the teals picking a prominent fight with the VEC over how-to-vote cards. The teals won that fight and rightly so, but the fact that they were spending time and energy on that suggested that either they couldn't find more important issues to prioritise or else they weren't prioritising them. I did wonder about the tactical wisdom of it at the time.
