2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Clark

This is my Clark electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Clark (2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 Green 1 IND)

Western shore Hobart, primarily Hobart City and Glenorchy City

Inner and outer urban

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

Liberal

Madeleine Ogilvie, incumbent, previously Labor then Independent MP, Minister Corrections, Environment, Arts, Innovation etc

Simon Behrakis, incumbent, parliamentary secretary to Premier/housing and planning, former Hobart Alderman and Abetz staffer, economist

Jessica Barnett, media advisor Dept Premier and Cabinet, former Candidates Administrator for UK Tories, former electorate officer for Senator David Bushby

Marilena Di Florio,  fashion designer and label owner, previously RAAF medic and administrator/planning officer in the Tasmanian Health Department. Candidate for Clark federal, more detail here

Edwin Johnstone, owner of Some Hallucination hair salon, Chairman of Confederation of Greater Hobart Business, 2022 Hobart Council candidate

Marcus Vermey, owner of well-known butcher Vermey's Quality Meats, rowing coach, 2024 Clark and 2025 Nelson candidate

David Wan, "a true Tasmanian success story" according to Liberal profile which completely fails to say what he has been successful in!

Ogilvie's campaign has attracted attention after she uploaded an AI-generated profile image of herself on social media, leading to speculation about whether her corflutes are also AI images.  

Labor

Josh Willie, first-term Assembly incumbent, previously MLC for Elwick, Shadow Treasurer, Shadow Minister Aboriginal Affairs

Ella Haddad,  incumbent, Shadow Attorney-General, Health, Justice, Multicultural Affairs, Disability etc

John Kamara, co-founder, Culturally Diverse Alliance Tas and African Communities Council Tas, 2023 Tas Australian of the Year, 2024 Clark and Hobart candidate, previous profile

Luke Martin, CEO Salmon Tasmania (to leave soon), advisor to Dean Winter, former CEO Tourism Industry Council, former Glenorchy councillor

Liam McLaren, 2024 President of Tasmania University Student Association, event co-ordinator and social media designer

Tessa McLaughlin, electrical tradie, 2024 Elwick candidate, previous profile

Craig Shirley, admin officer at Communications, Electrical and Plumbing Union

Greens

Vica Bayley, incumbent, Greens Deputy Leader, former state campaign manager for Wilderness Society

Helen Burnet, first-term incumbent, former long-term Hobart Councillor and three-time Deputy Mayor, podiatrist

(more Greens candidates TBA)

Independents

Kristie Johnston, incumbent, former Glenorchy Mayor, criminologist/lawyer and hotelier

Elise Archer, former Liberal Attorney-General and earlier Speaker, MHA 2010-2023, director at equipment financing firm Finlease

John Macgowan, nationally (in)famous leading dirt uniteer, Bruce Lehrmann associate, political consultant and raconteur,  former NSW Liberal advisor, black metal fan

Archer's sacking as Attorney-General and departure from the Liberal Party in October 2023 sparked a crisis in which Premier Rockliff threatened to call an election unless Archer quit parliament or guaranteed confidence and supply; she eventually quit parliament.  Primarily, Archer was brought down over a text message in which she said "Turn off comment please. Sick of victim-survivors" after receiving social media abuse from some victim-survivors over handling of Commission of Inquiry issues. However, some other victim-survivors have praised her performance as Attorney-General. Many other Archer texts including some criticising Liberal Premiers were reported.  See my in-depth coverage from the time.  During the current campaign a report by former judge Raymond Finkelstein substantively upholding a bullying/harassment complaint by a staffer against Archer has apparently been given to media; Archer denies the claim and says her rebutting submissions were ignored.

Macgowan's campaign under the slogan "Back in Black" references both the need for budget repair and his recent return to the state just prior to the election. Regarding the latter coincidence, Satan has been contacted for comment.  In a Mercury candidate announcement Macgowan alludes to having "a lot of ... very conservative" opinions but also to supporting making Tasmania the "cannabis cultivation capital of Australia".  An unexpected source of entertainment for Clark voters but there could be some serious messages along the way.

Prospects for Clark

The People's Republic of Clark (as I like to call it) is very left, very Green and also very post-major-party.  Not only is Andrew Wilkie its long-unbeatable federal incumbent (the longest serving independent as such in federal history) but Clark in 2021 was the only seat to elect two crossbenchers in the days of the 25-seat system.  The state held its breath to see if it would be three, which would have ended Peter Gutwein's Premiership in an election that he otherwise won easily.  In 2024 with the return to 35 seats, Clark alone elected three crossbenchers.

In 2024 the Liberals polled 27.1% (2.16 quotas), Labor 30.5% (2.43), Greens 20.9% (1.66), Kristie Johnston 7.7% (0.61) and Sue Hickey 4.9% (0.39).  Among various others, Hobart Councillor Ben Lohberger's 2.7% (0.21 Q) was notable, particularly for rising to several percent in booths around University of Tasmania.  Overall independents polled less in Clark than polling and modelling suggested and this opened the door for the Greens to finally win a second seat.  The effective margin between the Greens' Helen Burnet and Labor's third candidate was 4% (0.32 Q)  The margin between Johnston and Burnet at the point Johnston was elected was 2.7% (0.21 Q) but that was only after Johnston gained on preferences from fellow independent Sue Hickey.  Prior to that Johnston was only 433 votes ahead of Burnet.

The most obvious way the Clark picture changes is if Labor's vote increases further eliminating either the second Green or Johnston.  Here the leading theory is that Luke Martin polls strongly, which is more of a risk to Johnston.  Martin will compete with Willie for northern suburbs votes, the ideal scenario for Labor being a reasonably close split across three candidates, but many of the votes Martin would take from Johnston could have been taken by Willie already.  One of the keys to whether Johnston gets re-elected or not will be how voters react to her role in the current Parliament.  Unlike the Greens who clearly never supported the government, Johnston was perceived as supporting the government early in the term, though this perception is based largely on a misunderstanding.  

The interesting thing with the Greens ticket will be seeing how votes split between Bayley and Burnet - the more even the better for them though I think Bayley has been more prominent than Burnet in this short term.  

In 2024 Vermey helped the Liberals keep three candidates in the count for a long time by polling a relatively high primary vote, and he has since had a run in Nelson for further exposure, though the Liberals were heavily defeated by Meg Webb in that seat.  His presence should boost the Liberals' chances of holding two even if their vote should fall below two quotas, but it would not have to fall that far below before the Liberals' poor performance on preferences in this seat could be a problem.  That said, two seats out of seven, how hard can it be?  

I'll be surprised if Archer is competitive (her high votes in the past being I think primarily loyal Liberal voters) though she could poll significantly as an anti-stadium option for conservatives and on account of connections from a long parliamentary career.  The Liberals certainly don't need to have her active in the seat.  

Outlook for Clark: as a first offer prior to polling and seeing the full field, 2-3-1-1 (Liberal-ALP-Grn-IND), 2-2-2-1 and 2-3-2-0 seem to be the lead contenders