2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Lyons

This is my Lyons electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Lyons (2024 result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN, JLN MP may run as National)

Most of the state

Rural, outer suburban and forested.  

Lots of tiny dispersed towns that take many years for an MP to work

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

Liberal

Guy Barnett, incumbent, Deputy Premier,  Treasurer, Attorney-General, Minister for Justice, former Senator

Mark Shelton, incumbent, backbencher, Speaker, former minister Police, Local Govt etc, former Meander Valley mayor

Jane Howlett, first-term Assembly incumbent (previously MLC for Prosser), Minister Primary Industries, Hospitality and Small Business, Racing

Stephanie Cameron, Deputy Mayor Meander Valley, farmer, deputy president of party, 2021 and 2024 candidate

Bree Groves, farmer, former electorate officer for Bridget Archer

Richard Hallett, prominent Hollow Tree farmer, chair Southern Highlands Irrigation Scheme committee, 2024 candidate

Judith "Poppy" Lyne, farmer (sheep, cattle and irrigated cropping), former councillor

Labor

Jen Butler, incumbent, Shadow Minister Police, Corrections, Veterans Affairs, Women etc

Casey Farrell, incumbent elected on recount in March,  previously CEO Enterprize Tasmania (business startups firm), also Neon Jungle (design/technology)

Edwin Batt, Mayor of Southern Midlands, 2021 and 2024 candidate, farmer

Shannon Campbell, first-term Sorell Councillor, Founder/CEO of Campbell Conveyancing & Campbell Attraction Marketing

Richard Goss, "high school teacher with a mechanical and construction trade background", Northern Midlands councillor, 2024 candidate

Brian Mitchell, federal MHR for Lyons 2016-2025, former journalist/editor/media consultant, more detail here

Saxon O'Donnell, young baritone singer and recent support Senate candidate

Brian Mitchell retired graciously as Lyons incumbent to make way for Rebecca White amid a widespread belief that Labor risked losing if they did not make the switch.  It turned out Labor won Lyons much more easily than expected!  The Liberals have sought to use Mitchell's old social media posts travails from the 2022 federal campaign (noted on the "more detail here" link above) against Labor but have been hamstrung in so doing by the Electoral Act which prohibits them using his name without consent in advertising, whatever that is.  

Greens

Tabatha Badger, first-term incumbent, past Wilderness Society convenor and Lake Pedder restoration campaigner

(remaining Greens to be added)

Nationals (candidates seeking preselection)

Andrew Jenner, first-term incumbent elected for Jacqui Lambie Network, former UK Tory mayor and voluntary magistrate, former Liberal Party member

John Tucker (not necessarily Lyons), Liberal MHA 2019-2023, defected to crossbench over stadium, lost seat in 2024 as independent, farmer, former councillor

Independents

Phillip Bigg, tradesman, hunter, President Tasmania's Shooters Union Australia, former SF+F state secretary and frequent candidate, regular #politas contributor

Michelle Dracoulis, Mayor of Derwent Valley, was preselected by Labor for seat in 2024 but withdrew, photographer

Jiri Lev, prominent architect and heritage and planning advisor who supplies build-it-yourself housing plans

Angela Offord, Launceston vet, has been involved with Voices for Tasmania, ran in 2024 and for federal seat

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

(candidates TBA)

Prospects for Lyons

Lyons often runs alongside the northern seats but a little behind them on the Liberal vote.  At the Liberals' previous three victories they would have won four seats in Lyons under the current system but in 2024 they could only manage three.  They polled 37.6% (3.00 quotas) to Labor's 32.8% (2.62), Greens 10.9% (0.86 Q), Lambie Network 8.3% (0.66), Shooters Fishers and Farmers 4.8% (0.38) and Tucker 3.1% (0.24 Q).  

This looked like a close race between Labor and JLN for the final seat but Labor dropped back on a very high leakage rate off Rebecca White's surplus and never recovered.  In fact, Andrew Jenner (JLN) overtook the Greens on preferences and was elected sixth.  

Labor will suffer from the absence of White who was a huge vote-getter.  However the silver lining is that they will be able to spread their vote better and reduce leakage, especially with Mitchell's presence effectively giving them three incumbents (albeit one of those, Farrell, having not been there for long).  

Without the competition from the JLN banner and even without White it's pretty easy to see how Labor can manage three here, the question being can the Liberals drop back to two, and if so who would it be to?  Nationals?  An independent?  Maybe somebody else?  This is one where I do want to see a lot more of the lineup and the campaign before having an idea of how credible it is that the Government could drop back to two.  There should really be enough non-major/stadium vote around to potentially elect another crossbencher alongside Badger but who?

I am not sure what to make of the Nationals run yet - let's see how well resourced it is.  It must be strange to some in Canberra that the Tasmanian Nationals could be running candidates who have caused two elections by destabilising in one case, and bringing down in another, Liberal governments.

As for the Greens while being short of quota could make them at risk with some combinations of other party totals, I reckon that this time that's not going to be an issue.

Outlook for Lyons:  If things aren't too bad for the government then possibly they can still manage 3-3-1-0 (Liberal-Labor-Greens-other) but we will see.