2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 13 August): 51.5 TO COALITION (+0.7 since last week)
Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 63 seats (-2, Forde to Labor; Banks, Reid, Brisbane to Coalition)
Seat Total Market: Labor 65 seats (-2) (This figure may be slightly skewed by longshot bias; see below.)
This is week seven in a regular weekly series in the leadup to the federal election. Week six was
here
and through it you can click back to the previous weeks. Or just click
the "betting" label at the bottom. As stated before, the aim of this
exercise is not to claim that seat
betting markets have predictive value, but to test whether they do, and
to see which of the markets and the aggregated polls see the ultimate
outcome of the election first.
Things aren't looking too good for the Government after a few weeks of apparent competitiveness. The polls say they're losing at the moment, the punters strongly think they'll lose, the voters think they'll lose and the modellers think they'll lose. Still left expecting a Labor victory are really just the true believers, the Abbott-haters (and not even all of those), the Sawford formula devotees and
Peter Brent. There's a general perception that the Coalition now has this election by the scruff of the neck, that the first month of the Rudd comeback polling was partly bounce and that the government won't be going up from here and may indeed be going down further. Is it really quite that hopeless for Labor?
