Legislative Council 2023: Rumney

Welcome to this year's coverage of Tasmania's three Legislative Council seat elections.  Yesterday I released a survey of the Council's recent voting patterns.  Guides to Launceston and Murchison have followed.  There will be live coverage on the night of May 6th.  

The Legislative Council currently stands at four Liberal, four Labor and seven independents.  Three of the independents are conservative, three are well to the left of Labor and one (Ruth Forrest) has moved from the left to the centre in recent years.  While the Liberal Government therefore has a relatively easy time of it and wins the majority of contested votes, it still needs to convince someone from the left or centre to support it on major legislation.  I'm starting with Rumney because it is the seat with a major party contest although that contest has less excitement about it so far than last time.  

Seat Profile

Rumney is an urban fringe semi-rural seat on Hobart's eastern shore.  The 2017 redistribution reduced the size of Rumney with Sorell and the Tasman and Forestier Peninsulas going to the new seat of Prosser.  Rumney is now primarily the outer part of the Clarence council boundary, including Risdon Vale, Richmond, Lauderdale, Cambridge, Seven Mile Beach and South Arm.  It surrounds Pembroke which contains the inner Clarence suburbs.  Rumney also includes the commuter suburb of Midway Point (which is part of Sorell council) and Old Beach (Brighton).  

Legislative Council 2017: Launceston, Murchison and Rumney live

Launceston: Armitage (IND) has retained, narrowly defeating Ellis (IND)
Murchison: CALLED (6:53 pm) Ruth Forrest (Ind) re-elected.
Rumney: Lovell (ALP) defeats Mulder (Ind) after preferences

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Introduction:

Welcome to my thread for tonight's Legislative Council action, where three independents of various political persuasions will attempt to hold their positions against some high profile and/or party-endorsed challengers.  The Legislative Council is finely balanced (here's the maths) and if things go badly for the Hodgman Government tonight then it could be facing trouble upstairs lasting years.  You can see my previews here:  Rumney, Murchison, Launceston.

Comments will follow below the dotted line, scrolling from the earliest upwards. All the seats will be covered together.  I'm leaving some text here at the top in a probably vain attempt to prevent a repeat of last year's purple text fiasco.

Legislative Council 2017: Rumney

With about a month to go until the Legislative Council elections it's time to roll out some preview coverage of the three seats up for election.  I've decided to start with Rumney because it is the one where the Hodgman Government faces the biggest peril to its ability to get bills through the Upper House.  It's also the closest thing to a normal two-party contest and hence the one on which there is the most available data to crunch.  And, at this stage, it's the one with the most candidates.

There will be a live coverage thread for all seats on the night of Saturday 6 May.  There may also be other threads on Rumney if a campaign issue warrants them.  For more about the current political makeup of the Legislative Council see my assessment of voting patterns.

This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.

Guides for Murchison and Launceston are also now up.