Not-A-Poll Reset: Perrottet Defeated

 Chris Minns will be sworn in as the 47th Premier of New South Wales on Tuesday after decisively defeating Dominic Perrottet's Coalition.  It was a thumping win for Labor on a two-party basis, especially given the disadvantage of optional preferencing, but it seems a difficult pendulum has seen Labor unexpectedly pull up just short of a majority.  It's therefore time to reset this site's next-leader-to-go Not-A-Poll, which includes the Premiers, Chief Ministers, Prime Minister and federal Opposition Leader.   Voting in the sidebar is open.

Perrottet was the fourth Premier in a twelve-year government and ruled for just under one and a half years.  Expected to be an arch-conservative, he reinvented himself remarkably quickly.  He governed and campaigned with great energy, and was quite popular except for a mediocre reading in the final Newspoll, but no New South Wales government lasts that long without its share of scandals.  In the end the time factor, internal instability and probably a failure to deliver pay rises in the face of inflation cost him, as did his party's record on privatisation.  

Perrottet was the overwhelming pick on this site as the next leader to depart with nearly 70% of the vote.

It will be interesting to see what voters make of the new round though I suspect plenty of readers will vote for Peter Dutton as the obvious baddie in the field alone.

If nobody is rolled, Fyles, Barr and Palaszczuk have elections coming up scheduled for late 2024, while the federal election and Tasmanian election would both fall in the first half of 2025 if those governments went full term.  Dutton has a big by-election test next weekend and first-term opposition leaders don't always get to be around for more than two years, though he has no obvious leadership opponent at this stage.  There are also a few leaders who have been there for a while and might potentially retire during this term.   

2023 New South Wales Postcount: Legislative Council

This thread is finished now - go to button press day thread

Current live count leaders

ALP 8 Coalition 7 Greens 2 One Nation 1 Legalise Cannabis 1 Liberal Democrats 1 Shooters 1 (Animal Justice 22nd and needing to overtake another party on preferences to win)

Projection

ALP 8 Coalition 6 Greens 2 One Nation 1 Legalise Cannabis 1 Liberal Democrats 1 Shooters 1.  1 in doubt: Coalition vs Animal Justice for final seat 

Summary of contest:

Live count suggests a contest between Animal Justice and Coalition-7 for final seat with Coalition well ahead on primary votes. However, Coalition lead fell rapidly in very late counting.  While the Coalition's lead in the initial count appeared sufficient, the initial count slightly overestimated it and it is not clear the Coalition's lead will survive the preference flow.  

2023 New South Wales Postcount: Coalition vs Independent Seats

( Link to classic seats and Kiama thread and seat tally)

Covered on this page: Pittwater, Willoughby, Wollondilly

Pittwater (Now assumed Liberal win vs IND)

Willoughby (Now assumed Liberal win vs IND)

Wollondilly (IND expected to defeat Liberal)

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2023 New South Wales Postcount: Classic Seats And Kiama

Labor has won the election but has fallen short of a majority because the swing on prepolls was weaker than for booth votes.

Note: Ryde recount has a separate section below

SEATS APPARENTLY WON ALP 45 L-NP 36 GREEN 3 IND 9 

APPARENTLY CHANGING SEATS:

Coalition to Labor: Camden, East Hills, Heathcote,  Monaro, South Coast, Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone

Liberal to IND: Wakehurst, Wollondilly

(Link to Coalition vs IND seats thread)

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Donations welcome!

If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site.  Donations can be made by the Paypal button in the sidebar or email me via the address in my profile for my account details.  Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.

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As at midnight Saturday I have ceased the live thread and switched to this first postcount thread which will deal with the Labor vs Coalition contests (plus Kiama) that will determine whether Labor has a majority and if so the size of it.  A separate thread will follow on the Coalition vs Independent contests in Pittwater, Willoughby and Wollondilly, another on the Legislative Council, and hopefully by the time I've done those the contest in Balmain will have quietly gone away.

2023 NSW Election Day Live

Labor has won the election -  very probably in majority

NSW Legislative Assembly 93 seats (Majority 47)
2019 RESULT L-NP 48 ALP 36 Green 3 SFF 3 IND 3
GOING INTO ELECTION (Occupied/Notional) L-NP 46 ALP 37 Green 3 IND 7

SEATS APPARENTLY WON ALP 45 L-NP 26 GREEN 2 IND 7 In Doubt 13

INCLUDING LIKELY SEATS ALP 48 L-NP 30 GREEN 2 IND 7 In Doubt 6

APPARENTLY CHANGING SEATS (some not absolutely confirmed):

Coalition to Labor: Camden, East Hills, Heathcote,  Monaro, South Coast, Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone

Liberal to IND: Wakehurst

INCUMBENT TRAILING ON PROJECTION:

Coalition trailing Labor:  Ryde (ALP likely), Terrigal (ALP likely), Goulburn, Holsworthy (ALP likely), Oatley

IND trailing Labor: Kiama

SEATS IN DOUBT

Coalition vs Labor: Drummoyne (Liberal likely), Miranda (Liberal likely), Winston Hills (Liberal likely), Upper Hunter (Liberal likely)

Coalition vs IND: Pittwater, Willoughby, Wollondilly

Green vs Labor: Balmain (Greens ahead)

NSW Lower House 2023: Final Days Rolling Poll Roundup

 NSW Aggregate: 53.7 to Labor (+0.3 since March)
Median result if polls accurate is Labor government, not clear if minority or majority (approx 46 seats)

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Donations welcome!

If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site.  Donations can be made by the paypal button in the sidebar or email me via the address in my profile for my account details.  Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.

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Friday Newspoll Update: BOOM!

A big result in the final Newspoll (19-23 March) which has come out with Labor ahead 54.5-45.5, off primaries of Labor 38 Coalition 35 Greens 11 others 16.  After that it seems very highly unlikely that the Coalition wins in any fashion.  It's also very significant in the majority-or-not stakes; in my model 54.5 actually is good for a median of 47 seats and a one-seat majority.  My aggregate is still short of that, but something I am lacking is any poll with regional data or data by seat type that might suggest whether Labor might cut a swathe through the 6-10% range Sydney seats.  

Chris Minns leads as Better Premier 41-39 (William Bowe says it's the first lead for Labor since losing government in 2011) and the poll finds Minns with a net rating of +14 while Perrottet surprisingly falls to net -3.

Insane In The Balmain: Does Labor Really Need To Win This Seat?

 

A Labor flier from Balmain (source)

The district of Balmain (Green 10.0% vs ALP) would normally be of little interest at this NSW election given that it is on a large margin and the Greens have so far never lost a single seat electorate that they won at a previous general election.  What makes Labor think Balmain is worth taking a tilt at is the retirement of 12-year incumbent Jamie Parker, the first Green at state or federal level to retire from a single-seat electorate.  

One of the reasons the Greens have 14 wins from 14 attempts at defending state or federal single-member seats won at a general election (by-elections and multi-member seats are different stories) is that there tend to be oversize swings to them in subsequent elections.  For a first defence at state and federal levels the average swing is 2.9% on primary vote and 4.0% on two candidate preferred.  For a second and later defences it is 3.0% and 4.8% per election.  (The 2CP figures are affected in varying directions by Liberal preference recommendation changes, and a 2CP swing is not always available).  The obvious explanation for this is demographics, but another possible explanation is that sitting Greens may receive unusually high personal votes.  And if they receive them when they defend their seats, maybe they also lose them when they retire?  

NSW 2023 Legislative Council Preview And Advice On Effective Voting

The release of today's ballot order is a good time for a quick post about the NSW Legislative Council contest for 2023.

NSW uses a single statewide electorate with half-in half-out (21 seats) at each election.   Voting is overwhelmingly above the line, and preferencing is fully optional.  A below the line option is available but requires filling at least 15 boxes.  Voters for parties that don't have an above the line box, or for ungrouped candidates, need to vote this way.   See my voter advice section for advice on effective voting below.

The quota for election is 1/22nd or about 4.545%.  The major tickets (Liberal/National and Labor) always win several seats each on filled quotas, the more successful minor parties win a few this way, and there is then a race involving the next candidates in line for the parties that have won full quotas and the lead candidates for parties that have polled less than a quota.  This race typically fills about the final four seats, and the preferences of excluded parties have some impact here and can help some parties to jump over others if their contests are very close.  A party that has well over half a quota on primaries in these races typically wins, those that have well under half a quota lose, and the grey zone is around 0.4-0.6 quotas (1.8-2.7%) - however it varies a little from election to election.

EMRS: The Calm Before The Scandals (Which Are Probably More Calm)

EMRS: Liberal 42 Labor 30 (+1) Greens 13 (-1) IND 13 (-2) (likely to be inflated) Others 3 (+2)

Seat estimate if election "held now" Lib 16-17 ALP 11-2 Green 4-5 IND 2-4

An EMRS quarterly poll of Tasmanian state voting intention taken Feb 14-19 has just emerged, together with an update on the snazzy albeit slightly odd bells and whistles thingy (more on that later).  

This poll was taken before this week's resumption of Parliament in which the government has been attacked over two political class scandals.  The first involved conflict of interest accusations against the Speaker Mark Shelton concerning very large grants for the upgrade of the Bracknell Hall.  Speaker Shelton has used his casting vote to block a referral of the matter to the Privileges Committee, to block a no-confidence motion against him from being brought on, and to block two rather unusual motions that his vote on those motions be disallowed on the grounds of "pecuniary interest".  (I have been unable to find any precedent for pecuniary interest provisions being used in this way.)  In the second, after one of the parliament's longer exercises in dental extraction there was finally an admission that Racing Minister Madeleine Ogilvie had known the former TasRacing boss Paul Eriksson had been dismissed days before she first misleadingly claimed he had moved to Sydney for family reasons.   At times Labor and the Greens were almost tripping over each other trying to work out which scandal to target first.