If recorded at an election (unlikely) would result in a hung parliament, probably leading to a Labor minority government
High JLN figure likely to represent a bubble, with response options contributing - but consistent with JLN being in the mix for seat wins
Populist minor party bubbles often happen in state elections. In the late 2017 SA Newspoll, Nick Xenophon's SA-Best was polling 32%, ahead of both major parties, and Xenophon himself was 5% ahead of both major party leaders combined as Better Premier. Was South Australia heading for Premier Xenophon? Just a few months and one of the worst ads in political history later, the juggermaut had ground to a halt, with the party polling 14.2% on election day and winning zero lower house seats.
And while One Nation did manage 22.7% in Queensland 1998, there have been plenty of other bursting bubbles: One Nation Queensland 2017, Palmer United Tasmania 2014 and Queensland 2015 and yes Jacqui Lambie Network Tasmania 2018 are other cases where minor parties that threatened to win several seats ended up with one seat or nothing. (Another one is Territory Alliance in the NT 2020 but that is a weaker example since the only poll that pointed to success there was an internal poll.) Campaigns often result in fourth parties being exposed as rabbles full of terrible candidates and contradictions. They can be outspent by big parties or simply sidelined from media debate because they won't be governing.
