Showing posts with label 2CP realignment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2CP realignment. Show all posts

Sunday, March 22, 2026

South Australia 2026: Postcount Summary, Links Hub and Basic 2CP Contests

SEATS WON ALP 34 Lib 5 ON 4 IND 4

Seats covered

Finniss (Liberal) - Liberal vs One Nation vs IND, IND has won from fourth

Kavel (IND vacancy) - Labor vs IND vs One Nation, IND stayed in top two and won easily

Hammond (Liberal) - ON win staying in top two and beating Labor on preferences

Heysen (Liberal) - Liberal vs ALP or Green, Greens narrowly missed final two with Liberal defeating Labor (Liberal probably would have won anyway)

Light (Labor) - close but Labor win

Mackillop (notional Liberal) - One Nation narrow win over Liberal

Narungga (IND) - One Nation appears to have very narrowly won subject to recount.

Morphett (Liberal) - narrow Labor win

Ngadjuri  One Nation win.  

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL  4 ALP 3 ON 2 Lib 1 Green,  ALP currently strongly leads for final seat.

Monday, May 5, 2025

2025 House of Reps Postcounts: Labor/IND Realignment Seats (Bean, Fremantle, Franklin)

On this page

Bean - Expected ALP retain (very close)

Fremantle - Expected ALP retain

Franklin - Called by me as easy ALP win on election night but included because some people are being silly

Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page 

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This page covers seats where Labor is leading the primary count, the AEC initially counted votes as ALP vs Liberal, but an independent has either clearly or probably made the final two and the count is now being realigned by the AEC.  The main two seats of interest here, Bean and Fremantle, have common ingredients in that an independent seemed to be very competitive on the night and still looks close in the realignment, but past experience suggests the independents may struggle as the postcount continues.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

2025 House Of Reps Postcount Summary, Links Hub And Classic 2PP Seats Page

FINAL SEAT TOTAL ALP 94 L-NP 43 IND 10 GRN 1 CA 1 KAP 1

SEATS APPARENTLY CHANGING (defections disregarded) 

L-NP to LABOR: Banks, Bass, Bonner, Braddon, Deakin, Dickson, Hughes, Leichhardt, Moore, Sturt, Forde, Petrie, Menzies (see below)

GREENS to LABOR: Brisbane, Griffith, Melbourne

L-NP to IND: Calare, Bradfield

IND to L-NP: Goldstein

SEATS IN SIGNIFICANT DOUBT - seats shown in bold have now been discusssed in detail either here or on one of the linked pages:

None anymore

Seats I am not currently considering in doubt that were in the lists above

Flinders, Monash, Forrest, Grey, Fisher, Longman: Liberal/LNP retains 

Wills, Fremantle, Bendigo, Bullwinkel, Bean, Calwell: Labor retains

Goldstein: expected Liberal gain

Melbourne: ALP gain

Ryan: Green retain

Kooyong:  IND retain

Bradfield: IND gain

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