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This article gives a detailed discussion of the five Tasmanian House of Representatives seats, which will be updated and edited as needed up til election day. A Tasmania Senate guide will follow much closer to polling day and will be linked here when up and there will be many other federal pages coming. I will be doing coverage for The Guardian on election night.
One seat (Lyons, held by Labor) is hotly in play at this election. Two others (Liberal-held Bass and Braddon) are volatile historically and of some interest though challenging for Labor to win this time around. Franklin (Labor) is attracting more attention than normal because of a couple of independent attempts. Clark (Ind) is not considered in play.
National polling as I start this article has been suggesting the sort of swing to the Coalition that if uniform should see them win Lyons, with Bass out of serious danger and Braddon out of the question for Labor. However Tasmania has become detached from national patterns in recent years with national swing only predicting Tasmania's two-party seat result perfectly once in the last 33 years (and in recent years Labor tending to do worse in swing terms than the national swing). Long Labor's strongest state on a 2PP basis, Tasmania ceased to be so in 2022 as demographic transition in low-education and older-voter areas has favoured the Liberal Party.
State politics is also not a reliable predictor of federal politics as Tasmanian voters frequently vote very differently at the two levels. For what it's worth, the now eleven-year-old Rockliff Liberal Government suffered a large swing against it in the early 2024 election, but was able to survive in minority with support from independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network. The JLN, after polling well in the 2022 Reps election, has had severe internal issues and appears to be focusing on the Senate.
Labor mostly performed poorly (again) in northern Tasmania in 2022, excepting Bass where it put up some fight thanks mainly to the religious right targeting the Liberal incumbent. It did, however, have candidate problems in both Lyons and Braddon.
For more details on seats and their history see also the Poll Bludger and Tally Room guides.
A section on Section 44 Eligibility will be added if any candidates appear to have question marks, and other general features will be added as I go.
I am only including full detail of polls and models released from October 2024 onwards. The YouGov MRP model uses a "generic ballot" choice of ALP, Liberal, Green, One Nation, IND, other, which seems to have produced high figures for One Nation and independent in many areas
Candidate Tally
In 2022 Tasmania had a record 44 candidates. This election it has fallen to 33 (the same number as for the Senate, as it happens).
Liberal 5 (=)
Labor 5 (=)
Green 5 (=)
One Nation 5 (=)
TOP 3 (-2 from UAP)
IND/unendorsed 7 (+4)
Aus Citizens 2 (+2)
SF+F 1 (+1)
No candidates running for AJP (5), Libertarian (5), JLN (4 ), Local Party (2 - folded)
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Note for candidates: as this page has to cover all five seats, the candidate profiles will be kept to a link (if I can find one) and one to a few lines except for (i) incumbents, (ii) major party candidates, (iii) any candidate who I identify as a credible chance to win based on polling or strong subjective evidence (iv) any candidate who I consider unusually notable or hilarious.
Candidates may contact me once only a minimum of one week before polling day to request a change in the link (if any) that their name goes to. No other changes will be considered except in cases of clear factual errors. Length of main candidate profiles is influenced by the volume of available material/dirt. Ordering of other candidates is influenced by past election results for their parties in the seat.
Candidates may contact me once only a minimum of one week before polling day to request a change in the link (if any) that their name goes to. No other changes will be considered except in cases of clear factual errors. Length of main candidate profiles is influenced by the volume of available material/dirt. Ordering of other candidates is influenced by past election results for their parties in the seat.
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Bass (Liberal, 1.4%)
Geography: North-eastern Tasmania, consisting mostly of urban Launceston and also the rural north-east with major centres including Scottsdale and Bridport.
History: Something very strange happened in Bass in 2022 - the incumbent retained! Previously Bass was "the ejector seat of Australian politics", having changed parties at eight of the last 11 elections, and having had the most MPs of any Australian federal seat. It is among the most volatile seats in Australia in swing terms in recent elections. The carnage started when Liberal Warwick Smith lost the seat by 40 votes, ending a 17-year Liberal tenure, in 1993. He won it back in 1996 and lost it again by 78 votes in 1998. Forestry issues played some role in the Liberal wins in 2004 and 2013 but primarily Bass is won and lost in the suburbs of Launceston. The southern and eastern suburbs have been especially volatile in recent elections but in 2019 usually rusted-on booths in the north-eastern suburbs joined the party too. In 2016 Andrew Nikolic (Lib) was defeated after a single term, with the crushing loss being generally attributed to health issues and also to a GetUp! campaign supported by left-wing locals displeased with Nikolic's abrasive style. With all these issues out of the mix in 2019 (but with Labor running a campaign perceived as Hobart-centred) there was a big swing back and the Liberals recaptured the seat from Ross Hart (Labor) by 563 votes. Bridget Archer retained in 2022 with a small 2PP swing in her favour.
Incumbent: The Liberal MP for Bass is Bridget Archer. Archer is the former Mayor of industrial George Town. She was a minor candidate for the Liberals at the 2018 state election. She was then endorsed for the federal election and won the seat in 2019. Archer is by far the most moderate remaining federal Liberal MHR after all her fellow travellers were wiped out in the 2022 tealwash. She has crossed the floor or at least not voted with her party dozens of times - on issues including cashless debit welfare cards (abstained), the now-created federal anti-corruption commission, Labor's social media ban for under-16s, censuring Scott Morrison, climate and the Coalition's proposed Royal Commission into child abuse in Indigenous communities. Most significantly she was one of five Liberals to insert protections for transgender students into the Morrison government's Religious Discrimination Bill, resulting in the Bill's withdrawal.
Archer's voting behaviour has created ripples with some concerns that she's so critical of the party's direction that she's effectively an independent, including claims (denied by him but widely believed by insiders) that adjacent incumbent Gavin Pearce had made a failed attempt to blow up her preselection. PM Albanese has tried to neutralise Archer's maverick appeal by saying she's a "good person" in a "bad party", claiming that her floor-crossing doesn't change anything. But in the religious discrimination law case it did, and there is obvious potential if there is a hung or even nearly hung parliament for Archer to become more powerful.
Main challenger: The Labor candidate is Jess Teesdale, who has worked as a teacher and numeracy coach in the Northern Territory (including remote communities in Arnhem Land) and Tasmania, most recently at Launceston's Indie School and previously at Riverside Primary and Prospect High. She is also a basketball coach and teaches English to adults. Teesdale grew up in Launceston before moving to the NT for work reasons then returned to Tasmania, also completing a Masters of Education through Edith Cowan University along the way. Teesdale is a new candidate whose run for Bass was announced in December 2024. Teesdale has been strongly endorsed by Labor state MHA and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, former federal MP for the seat. (I believe there is some kind of party work or office connection between the two but am rusty on the details.) She is also a basketball coach, and in the crossover-of-interests department I was delighted to hear that the candidate is an advocate and organiser of local school chess programs!
On 3 April, Teesdale told the ABC that the state government should be ending native forest logging, a sensitive claim as Labor has been whacked harshly by northern Tasmanian voters when it has been seen as too green on forestry, notably in 2004 and 2013. This was soon walked back with a statement saying that Labor supported jobs in the industry, but anti-logging campaigners (I expect correctly) alleged Teesdale had been got at. The party line as stated by Julie Collins was that Teesdale had made a "mistake" through inexperience, but what sort of mistake? Of confusion about what the party's policy was? Of expressing her real views on an issue where you can't do that? It sounds a lot to me like the latter and Archer was quick to pounce.
Jenny Webber of the Bob Brown Foundation claimed in response that 79% of Labor voters and 62% of Coalition voters support an end to native forest logging nationally, but this was based on a typical Australia Institute skew-poll where the respondent was primed by an argument from conformity about WA and Victoria ending native forest logging. The poll did not capture an existing view.
Other candidates:
Charlene McLennan (Green): lawyer specialising in domestic and family violence and legal aid
Caroline Larner (Aus Citizens) registered nurse and plant nursery worker, frequent past candidate for party
Raymond Broomhall (Trumpet of Patriots): esoteric lawyer, 2022 Federation Party Senate candidate, formerly of No5G Party.
Jordan Potter (One Nation), retired RAAF veteran, not known to me whether he lives in Tasmania
George Razay (IND): Launceston councillor, General Physician and Geriatrician at the Launceston General Hospital for 25 years, generally left platform, also ran in 2022 polling 5%.
The Australian Citizens Party is the former Citizens Electoral Council, a Lyndon La Rouche movement conspiracy outfit.
The ballot order in Bass is Teesdale, Larner, Archer, Potter, McLennan, Razay, Broomhall
Polling/Modelling (Voting Intention)
1. EMRS Nov 5-14 2024 The Australian reported the Liberals were holding the seat in this probably c. 200 vote sample, with no details
2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Lib 44 ALP 27 Green 12 others 17 2PP 54-46 to Liberals. (The autumn and winter MRPs had the Liberals ahead 52-48).
3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Lib 36.8 ALP 27.8 Grn 12.3 ON 11.2 IND 9.9 other 2 2PP 52.1-47.9 to Liberals
4. YouGov MRP model 27 Feb-26 March Lib 36.2 ALP 26.5 Grn 13.1 ON 9.9 IND 11 other 3.1. 2PP 51.6-48.4 to Liberals
5. Redbridge MRP model 3 Feb-1 April Lib 33 ALP 30 Greens 11 others 25 (way too high) 2PP 53-47 to Labor
Prospects: A Labor win would be an upset - but not a massive one. Bass's history of throwing incumbents to the devils means it can never be taken for granted (especially not while on a small margin), but the swingiest parts of Bass have been in a cost of living crisis for decades, so it offers little promise on paper of a swing to government. This has been reflected by Labor taking until December to announce a candidate amid a general view at the time that Archer wasn't beatable this time around. With Labor lifting in polling nationally there has been some thought that the rising tide could also reach Bass, but Tasmanian voting corellates poorly with the national picture anyway.
To the extent that the view that Archer is unbeatable was based on Archer's distinctive voting behaviour it was probably exaggerated, since the issues Archer crosses the floor on are generally tealish type concerns and Bass doesn't have that much of an inner city. Also, Archer's past form didn't stop 87% of Green voters preferencing Labor in the seat in 2022. But Tasmanian voters do respect not toeing the party line.
Braddon (Liberal, 8.0%)
Geography: North-west and western Tasmania, including the small regional cities of Devonport and Burnie and the large town of Ulverstone, the rural north-west (Smithton, Wynyard) and the west coast mining and tourism towns (Queenstown, Zeehan, Strahan)
History: Decades ago the north-west was infamously socially conservative, but Braddon has changed greatly on that front in the last 25 years. It remains a seat with resource politics often front and centre. Braddon was Liberal-held from 1975 to 1998 but has since become another swinging and usually marginal seat, changing hands at six of the last nine general elections, including three in a row from 2013 to 2019. In 2022 however it recorded its most lopsided result since 1990.
Labor's Justine Keay won the seat from the Liberals' rather unpopular incumbent Brett Whiteley in 2016 but her tenure was disrupted by having to contest a mid-term by-election caused by Section 44 issues. Keay won but by Labor's result was mediocre. The Liberals had a big win in Braddon in 2019 and the seat has rarely been in the headlines since. It was bigger in 2022 when Labor ran a low-profile candidate who was revealed to have a decades-old drug trafficking conviction, in among the worst seats in the country to have one in. By Tasmanian standards, Braddon detested the Voice referendum with over 72% giving it the thumbs down.
Vacancy: Braddon is vacant following the retirement of two-term MP Gavin Pearce, citing family reasons and exhaustion. The reported conflict with Bridget Archer, though denied by Pearce, does leave a perception of some discontent with politics as well.
Liberal Candidate: The new Liberal candidate is Mal Hingston. Hingston is a defence contractor delivering radar systems for the ADF, and has also worked in the mining industry and in civil engineering. Intriguingly he "has focused on project recovery of distressed projects" which sounds like quite the qualifiication for political life. I am not aware of any previous political form. Hingston has been praised by Pearce as a potential successor.
Hingston attracted controversy in the second week in April when the Advocate outed him as another Coalition faux battler, his owning of more than $5 million worth of properties sitting poorly with claims to be doing it tough and not having much in the cost of living crisis. (He does in fairness suggest much of that property is mortgaged.)
Main challenger: The Labor challenger is Anne Urquhart, Labor Senator from 2011 since being elected at the 2010 half-Senate election. Prior to politics, Urquhart was a very long-serving AMWU state president and later secretary, having started her union career as a delegate at the Ulverstone potato factory. She has been Labor's Chief Whip in the Senate since 2016 and has had various other roles that are noted here. She is also a past President of the state party and is Labor's "duty Senator" for Braddon, meaning she has been the Senator tasked with representing Braddon and commenting on its issues. Urquhart - long a major figure in the Tasmanian ALP left - has rarely been controversial but did ruffle some feathers in 2021 with her support for David O'Byrne, firstly in the leadership contest and then following his forced resignation from caucus. (For more re Urquhart see article here)
Other candidates
Erin Morrow (Greens) psychologist with background in mental health care and organisational psychology, 2024 minor state Braddon candidate
Adam Martin (Independent) poultry farmer, carpenter and builder, involved in federal lobbying for not-for-profits
Stephen Kenney (Trumpet of Patriots) "self employed"
Christopher Methorst (One Nation) Army and Reserve veteran, has worked in mining, construction, disability support and community coaching.
Gatty Burnett of the unregistered "Tasmanians Now" group was a declared candidate (alongside Melissa Wells for Senate) but neither ran.
Adam Martin was approached by the Advocate after liking Facebook comments that said Port Arthur murderer Martin Bryant was framed. His defence was verging on Katteresque: "I just haven't followed that, really, and that's all I've got to say on it" Of perhaps more substance for readers of this page, the candidate has detailed electoral reform policies including a stringent version of truth in advertising where repeat offenders could have their seats vacated (I don't support this!).
The ballot order in Braddon is Kenney, Morrow, Methorst, Urquhart, Martin, Kingston.
Polling/Modelling (Voting Intention)
1. EMRS Nov 5-14 2024 sample size probably c. 200. Lib 44 ALP 27 Grn 9 JLN 7 (apparently not running) IND, ON 4. 2PP would be about 56-44 to Liberal
2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Lib 46 ALP 22 Green 7 others 25 2PP 59-41 to Liberal. (The autumn and winter MRPs had the Liberals ahead 57-43).
3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Lib 41.6 ALP 22.1 IND 12.9 ON 11.1 GRN 9.5 other 3.4 2PP 58.1-41.9 to Liberal
4. YouGov MRP model 27 Feb-26 March Lib 40.7 ALP 25.3 IND 10.5 ON 9.7 GRN 9.3 other 4.5 2PP 55.7-44.3 to Liberal
5. Redbridge MRP model 3 Feb-1 April Lib 42 ALP 26 Green 10 others 22 2PP 54-46 to Liberal
6. YouGov 17-24 April Small sample size (419) based on named candidates Lib 33.2 ALP 30.6 Green 9.7 ON 4.6 IND 15.7 TOP 3.2 other 3 (but no Other is running in Braddon). 2PP 54-46 to Labor (!)
Prospects: The margin is inflated, but ... Braddon is on paper closer than the 2022 margin indicates, given that it is vacant and that Labor is running an experienced Senator after its disaster here last time. These factors could be worth at least half of the margin between them. But even so Braddon has become a very difficult electorate for Labor and for a first-term government to take a seat on an 8% margin would be extraordinary. There's a good chance Urquhart running can make Labor poll respectably and a swing to them would not surprise, but actually winning seems hard. The Macquarie Harbour salmon issue in this electorate is not helping, with uncertainty about the Commonwealth's management of the threats salmon farming poses to the endangered Maugean Skate playing into the sort of wedge politics we have seen in Tasmania over forestry in the past. That said, PM Albanese has done his best to shut it down with an EPBC exemption bill passed in the final days of parliament. I'll be keeping an eye on Strahan booth on election night. It's an interesting question how much revelations that Hingston portrayed himself as doing it tough while owning 10 residential properties might hurt him in the seat, so if Labor has a good election this is still worth keeping an eye on despire the margin.
Adam Martin has some Craig Garland like policy interests (as well it seems as some Craig Garland like scruffy social media edges) and indies have polled handily in this seat in recent times (frequently beating the Greens at various levels), but this one will be between the major parties. (Martin is not specifically connected to Garland but Garland has endorsed him, as well as independents Wilkie and George in Clark and Franklin.)
Clark (Ind, 20.8% vs ALP)
Geography: Western shore Hobart. Includes two very different halves - the working-class Glenorchy half which used to be strongly pro-Labor, and the Hobart City half which is one of the greenest areas in Australia (with small pockets of strong Liberal support).
History: After winning the seat from the Liberals in 1987, Labor's Duncan Kerr held the seat for 23 years. On his retirement Labor flubbed both the preselection and the campaign, resulting in independent Andrew Wilkie narrowly winning the seat on preferences from third place. Wilkie has since been re-elected four times with massive margins and in 2019 managed to win on primary votes alone (just). The seat has had the lowest combined major party primary at the last three elections in a row. This independent voting spread to state level in 2021, with Kristie Johnston elected to state parliament as a rather Wilkie-like independent and Labor reduced to a feeble 22% and just one seat out of five. In 2024 Labor did better and the indie vote declined slightly but Johnston was again elected.
Incumbent: Andrew Wilkie is a former army officer and intelligence analyst who blew the whistle over the Howard government's support for invading Iraq. He ran for the Greens in Bennelong 2004 and Tasmania Senate 2007 then left said party, narrowly missing a seat in the Tasmanian House of Assembly as an independent in 2010. Later that year he won Denison.
Wilkie initially supported the Gillard Labor government in the 2010-3 hung parliament but withdrew support after the government did not follow through on its agreements with him concerning poker-machine precommitment. Wilkie has often again been blessed with close numbers from 2016 on and there was especially a perception that the PM's door was always open in the hung parliament end of the 2016-9 term. In the current parliament the larger crossbench has made his role less prominent.
Wilkie is a generally left-wing independent with forthright, often black-and-white moral views on issues, and whose major issues have included gambling, asylum seekers and health services.. He was also the first plaintiff in one of two failed legal challenges to the holding of the same-sex marriage "postal survey". Polling in the 2016 leadup showed very high approval ratings of Wilkie; none has been seen since perhaps because the answer is obvious. Early in his career Wilkie rarely endorsed other candidates in elections of any kind but in recent years it has become very common for him to do so (in this case, Peter George).
Labor Challenger: The Labor candidate for the seat Heidi Heck was finally announced on 28 March, the very late announcement showing Labor has given up attempting to recover the precious until Wilkie goes away. Heck is a staffer for state Labor leader Dean Winter and a part-time law student. She was also previously a journalism student in Queensland and wrote a few articles for Tasmanian Times.
Liberal Challenger: Liberal candidate Marilena De Florio is a fashion designer and label owner who has previously worked as a RAAF medic and an administrator and planning officer in the Tasmanian Health Department. Di Florio attracted attention in 2023 when a tote bag carrying a Yes Stadium message was pulled from the Tasmanian Fashion Runway Di Florio ran for a Glenorchy councillor vacancy in a 2024 by-election but finished third in a large field (the winner is or was a member of the Federation Party, now Trumpet of Patriots!)
Other candidates
Janet Shelley (Green): Director of Sustainability at the Department of Climate Change, Energy the Environment and Water, previously at Bureau of Meteorology. Greens candidate for seat in 2022, also candidate for Clark 2024 and Elwick 2024 (both state)
Cathy Griggs (One Nation) self-employed student bus transport manager in Huon Valley (outside the electorate)
The ballot order for Clark is Wilkie, Shelley, Di Florio, Heck, Griggs
Polling/Modelling (voting intention):
MRP models are likely to be very inaccurate in Clark as the seat is unique in being a very left inner city seat that is held by an independent rather than Labor or the Greens. Seat polling has also done poorly here in the past where it has failed to mention Wilkie by name.
1. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 Others (would be mostly Wilkie) 51 ALP 27 Lib 10 Green 13, 2CP 68-32 Wilkie vs ALP. The Labor primary is probably too high here and the Liberal primary is too low. (Wilkie led 72-28 in the autumn MRP and 61-39 in the winter one, the former had the Liberal primary on 4!)
2. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 Ind (would be mostly Wilkie) 40.1 ALP 22.8 Lib 17.9 Green 15.4 ON 3.3 other 0.4 2CP 62.8-37.8 to Wilkie vs ALP.
3. YouGov MRP model 27 Feb-26 March Ind (would be mostly Wilkie) 43.5 ALP 21.2 Lib 16.2 Green 14.4 ON 4 other 0.3 2CP 64.8 to Wilkie.
4. Redbridge MRP model 3 Feb-1 April Other (mostly Wilkie) 51 ALP 23 Lib 14 Green 11, 2CP 67-33 to Wilkie vs ALP
Prospects: Wilkie retain. Wilkie was taken to preferences in 2022 but the main reason for that was a stronger than usual performance by the Greens, whose candidate Janet Shelley is back for another shot after a couple of good results last year too. With Wilkie having an enormous primary vote buffer but not even needing to top the primary count to win, the only points of interest here will be (i) whether Wilkie's vote softens significantly (ii) the exclusion order for places 2-3. (There is potential for the Liberals to make the top two against Wilkie, but also they were less than 3% off being overtaken by the Greens for third in 2022.) The Liberals are making a reasonable effort in this seat though I am unsure if it is just a profile run for their candidate or if they just want the bragging rights of coming second (if they can get them).
Franklin (Labor, 13.7%)
Geography: An oddly shaped electorate containing the eastern shore Hobart suburbs within the Clarence council area, and also the Kingborough area, D'Entrecasteaux Channel and Huon Valley areas on the other side of the river.
History: Franklin has been won by Labor at every election since the 1993 retirement of Bruce Goodluck, who had held the seat for the Liberals since 1975 (often by force of personality or electorate work rather than by party identification). Franklin often attracts a high Greens vote, but not enough to threaten to win the seat. It was vaguely competitive when previous incumbent Harry Quick departed but since then Julie Collins has held it comfortably, assisted at times by the Liberal Party using the seat as a dumping ground for embarrassingly poor candidates. Franklin has been won by the party forming government only four times at the last fifteen elections. It was a slightly surprising if very narrow Yes vote in the Voice referendum.
Incumbent: Julie Collins is a six-term incumbent who served as a Minister in various portfolios (including Social Services) under both Gillard and Rudd in the 2010-13 parliament. She is currently Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and Minister for Small Business. She earlier served in the Gillard and second Rudd governments as Minister for Community Services, Minister for Indigenous Employment and Economic Development, Minister for the Status of Women and Minister for Housing and Homelessness.
ReachTEL polling in the 2016 leadup showed quite strong personal ratings for Collins but also a fairly high non-recognition rate, suggesting that her profile had been low in Opposition. I am not aware of any more recent polling of her approval. In 2013 a remarkably tongue-tied 2010 press conference was used by the Liberals in an attack ad but that was about the last notably negative publicity that Collins ever had. These days she stands out as a respected experienced party figure (for instance representing the party on the ABC's state election night panel).
Liberal Challenger: Josh Garvin is a current Federal Vice-President and recent Tasmanian President of the Young Liberals and has worked as a staffer for state MP Madeleine Ogilvie. He is also a law graduate and church volunteer. He ran for the Liberals for this seat in the 2024 state election polling 972 votes. Garvin answered effectively yes to more questions than Eric Abetz on the Australian Christian Lobby questionnaire for the state election. (I do give him some goth points for "called to dark places" in his Dark MOFO answer though).
Other candidates:
Owen Fitzgerald (Greens) advisor to Nick McKim, Delegate to Change the World 2024 New York, climate school strikes organiser, minor Greens candidate 2024 state election. WITHDRAWN FROM CAMPAIGN (see below)
Peter George (Independent) Climate200-backed anti-salmon-farm campaigner, veteran former ABC foreign correspondent and Four Corners reporter/producer, also parliamentary reporter (on the steps of Parliament House when Whitlam was sacked!)
Brendan Blomeley (Independent) Mayor of Clarence (elected 2022), CEO Tas Racing Club, former Chief of Staff to David Bushby, former corporate affairs manager at Federal Group, golliwog apologist etc
Stefan Popescu (One Nation) home renovator and landscape, formerly filmmaker, panelbeater, arts and academia
There is a Leon Compton debate involving Collins, Garvin, George and Blomeley here (30 mins in).
Blomeley is a former Liberal who was generally placed on the conservative right of the party.
He fell out with the party shortly after he was rejected for Senate preselection after failing to disclose he had been charged with breaching an AVO in 2017 (the charge was dismissed). Going into the 2024 state election he entertained media comments that he was considering running as an independent. This resulted in his membership being deemed to have ceased and attempts to broker a solution so he could be readmitted failed. And here we are.
Fitzgerald Eligibility (April 15) It appears to me that Fitzgerald is ineligible, unless there is more to the story than his form suggests. According to his Section 44 form his father is a New Zealand citizen by birth. He renounced UK citizenship acquired from his mother but there is no indication he renounced NZ citizenship, which on my understanding is automatic for the child of an NZ-born NZ citizen, though one must apply to register it. Various checkers on the NZ government citizenship pages confirm this assessment.
UPDATE April 16: Fitzgerald is apparently ineligible and has withdrawn from campaigning. His name stays on the ballot paper and he can still get votes (they will be processed as normal) but if elected his election would be challenged and voided, resulting in a by-election. Note that if someone leaves Fitzgerald's box completely blank that vote will still count under savings provisions, but, for instance, 1-5 and a cross in Fitzgerald's box would not count. Voters should number all the boxes.
UPDATE April 18: I saw a post on Instagram c. 10 pm last night stating that the Greens would continue to recommend a vote for Fitzgerald with preferences to George on their how to vote cards "to avoid creating confusion and potentially informal votes." I have not verified that the poster is an officeholder and nor can I find the same information elsewhere.
The ballot order in Franklin is: Garvin, George, Blomeley, Popescu, Fitzgerald, Collins
Polling (voting intention):
Note: MRP models struggle with projecting IND campaigns that are essentially standalones, like George's. Note 2: Items 1-6 predate Owen Fitzgerald's withdrawal.
1. EMRS Nov 5-14 2024 sample size probably c. 200. Incomplete report - ALP 36 Lib 35 Green 11 IND 11. 2PP would be about 55-45 to Labor.
2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 ALP 41 Lib 31 Green 18 Others 9 (low). 2PP 63-37 to Labor. (In autumn 65-35 and in winter 61-39).
3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 ALP 36.1 Lib 30.7 Grn 14.3 ON 8.2 (too high) IND 6.4 (too low) other 4.1 2PP 56-44 to Labor but Green prefs flow very strongly to Labor here so would be more.
4. YouGov MRP model 27 Feb-26 March ALP 33.6 Lib 29.2 Grn 18.1 ON 6 IND 6.7 others 6.3. 2PP 57.1-42.8 to Labor but see above note re Green prefs.
5. EMRS 9-10 April ALP 38 Lib 19 Grn 13 George 13 Blomeley 7 others 6 unsure 3. ALP would easily win if Liberals finish second. It's not clear in this sample if George could make the final two but if he did he would need just over 75% of preferences - difficult if Liberals recommend prefs to him and impossible otherwise. But it is within the margins of real error of a seat poll with a sample of only 430 that he could get there on slightly better numbers, but only if the Liberals recommended preferences to him. By comparison Wilkie got just under 70% of preferences in Denison 2010 but that was against a no-name Labor candidate not a Cabinet Minister.
6. Redbridge MRP model 3 Feb-1 April ALP 42 Lib 28 Green 13 others 17. 2PP 64-36 to Labor.
Prospects: Still spicy despite the Liberals' best attempts to ruin it Franklin, for years a boring Labor hold, has attracted some attention this time around because it has not one but two potentially significant independents. That has turned attention to Labor's low primary in the seat last time (just 36.7%). Labor's vote was deflated then by the Lambie Network and also by Anna Bateman running as a Wilkie-endorsed candidate for the enthusiastic but confused Local Party (which has folded) so it's not clear that the indies will knock it much lower or lower at all, especially as they're not really pitching to Labor voters. The once rusted-on outer suburb booths for Labor on the outer eastern shore (Risdon Vale, Rokeby. Clarendon Vale) are also weakening, but the inner-suburban eastern-shore booths are at the same time shifting left.
The smokie scenario getting attention here is Peter George. George may have jumped the Greens into the top three anyway but the "withdrawal" of the Greens candidate should ensure he does. This gives George good prospects to also pass or even straight outpoll the Liberals and we saw this movie before in Denison 2010. But the comparison seems strained. Denison was vacant with a lazy and terrible Labor campaign and while some of Franklin has obvious teal appeal, it is a bitty electorate that is hard for an indie to poll well in enough of. The biggest problem for George is that the Liberals have recommended preferences to Labor on their how to vote card. The Liberal vote in Franklin won't be high and the follow rate on their card is likely to be low (it's Tasmania!) but this will make it hard for George to get the sort of strong flow from the Liberals he is likely to need to win. On that basis, George is going to need a massive primary vote, maybe in the area of 30%.
There is a significant and rather clever looking "Vote Salmon Out" campaign by green groups alongside George's campaign that is getting attention. Franklin has recently had an unusual situation of dead fish from salmon farms washing up on beaches in the electorate, together with publicity about diseased salmon being sold for consumption, and there is higher than normal anger about the issue. I don't think salmon is that big an issue in the most populated parts of Franklin and probably those most concerned about it were already not voting for the major parties. However if there is something George might tap into beyond that issue and generic tealy concerns he is also running on, it would be Franklin voters' discontent with being a taken-for-granted safe seat while the northern seats are porkbarrelled for being marginals and Clark gets attention when Wilkie holds a share of the balance of power.
While the initial funding announcement of $30,000 from Climate 200 seemed token, it appears the George campaign has a real bucket of money now from wherever. The George campaign is on a large scale and this will be interesting to watch on election night. I think George is likely to make the final two, and despite the Liberals' spoilsporting the 2CP vs Labor could still at least be reasonably close.
Blomeley is a Mayor but not a long-serving one, and only won the position narrowly as a vacancy. It seems doubtful that he would get double figures (the Blomleyologists at Fontcast put him on deposit back and out) and even if he did the path to win would be much harder than for George.
The Greens also had designs on this seat but they would have needed a 3CP swing from Labor to them of over 10%, and also to have the Liberals not fall into third. They've talked it up as winnable but that was a typical Greens stretch; try again when Collins retires perhaps, if there isn't any indie running. Anyway that's all over now.
The Liberals may get some sort of 2PP swing but some of the models of that look exaggerated.
Lyons (Labor, 0.9%)
Geography: A mainly rural seat including the large regional town of New Norfolk, the fringes of Hobart and Launceston, and numerous small towns dotted across the centre and east of the state. Lyons has a sharply north-south voting divide, with the northern part much more pro-Liberal.
History: Partly because of the difficulty of building name recognition in a seat with so many scattered communities, Lyons (formerly Wilmot) had only three incumbents (two Labor, one Liberal) between 1946 and 2013. Long-serving Labor MP Dick Adams was dislodged by the nation's largest swing caused by anger over the state's forestry "peace deal" in 2013 (having survived a similar scare in 2004) but his replacement Eric Hutchinson lasted only one term before Brian Mitchell regained the seat for Labor.
Lyons often votes similarly to Bass and Braddon but with a little bit extra for Labor, and could have been very close at the 2019 election, but the Liberal candidate was disendorsed with her name on the ballot paper for very offensive social media remarks. The boot was somewhat on the other foot in 2022 when Mitchell's own social media form came under scrutiny with some off-colour posts about women used against him. The seat is another where demographic transition is making life tougher for Labor than in the Adams days.
Vacancy: Lyons is vacant following the retirement of Mitchell. A former journalist/editor and later media consultant, Brian Mitchell did not fit the mould of a typical winner of this rural seat, but he did at least have one or more appropriate hats and a larrikin style. Initially Mitchell fared well and he easily retained the seat in 2019, but after the 2022 campaign he was widely expected to lose the rematch with Bower if he ran again. He has given way to White very gracefully.
Labor Candidate: Labor's star candidate for Lyons is Rebecca White, a state MHA for the seat from 2010-2024 including seven years as Opposition Leader. White was first elected by dislodging a Labor incumbent (rare under the then 25-seat system) and polled very high personal votes thereafter. She led the state party from 2017 until the 2024 election loss, except for a very brief and ill-fated David O'Byrne leadership after the 2021 election. Her exit from the leadership in 2024 was contentious as her speech on election night had flagged possibly seeking to form government but this was overruled by the party's admin committee. White polled extremely high personal ratings in the leadup to the 2018 election and was often more competitive than the average Opposition Leader in EMRS preferred premier ratings. She is a very strong performer in head-to-head candidate debates. On her watch the party did successfully rebuild in the 2018 election (without winning) then suffered a bad loss caused by infighting and against a very popular COVID-assisted incumbent in 2021. In 2024 the Liberal Government suffered a large swing but Labor did not pick up much. For more detailed comments see here.
Liberal challenger: Susie Bower is the re-endorsed Liberal candidate after almost winning in 2022. Bower is the Chief Executive Officer of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. She was a Meander Valley councillor before resigning to focus on a year-long first campaign for Lyons. She is also a former University lecturer in business and earlier served for ten years as Director of Community and Economic Development at Dorset Council. Bower was a candidate for the Liberals at the 2021 state election but her 2517 votes was the lowest of the six Liberal candidates, including being outpolled by fellow councillor Stephanie Cameron despite Cameron's weaker local council vote-getting record. Bower obtained a 4.3% 2PP swing in 2022 though much of this was because the previous Liberal candidate had been disendorsed.
Bower is obviously out there working the electorate but hasn't been especially high profile in the leadup, except for this one for the wrong reasons. Asked why she was running for a party that was stressing cost of living but had a record in government of most economic growth flowing to high-income earners, Bower wasn't able to answer. (It sounds even worse than it reads: from about 1:10 in here - compare White at about 12 mins in, who is polished, across her federal brief and adept at sidestepping tricky questions). Another Bower interview (interview with White, Bower and Allan from 1:04 in here) attracted media attention when she couldn't commit to urgent care clinics being bulk billed (a previous announcement suggested they would be).
Bower's own work with BBAMZ has placed her in the issues mix for the election with Labor suggesting that Peter Dutton's approach to renewable energy is a threat to hydrogen projects at Bell Bay.
Other candidates:
Alastair Allan (Greens) Antarctic and marine campaigner at Bob Brown Foundation, former Sea Shepherd captain, minor Greens candidate in 2024 state election.
Michael Phibbs (Aus Citizens) Diesel fitter and landscaper, support candidate to Larner in Tas Senate 2007
Angela Offord (Independent) Launceston veterinarian, was involved in teal-style Voices of Tasmania group, ran in state election polling 0.3%
Sarah Graham (Trumpet of Patriots) "unemployed", appears to be ineligible under Section 44
Carlo di Falco (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) target shooter, hunter and gun collector, serial candidate for party at state level
Shaun Broadby (One Nation). "retired veteran" (no bio details on ON link) There have been claims this is a frequent former SF+F candidate but that candidate was Shane Broadby.
The Australian Citizens Party is the former Citizens Electoral Council, a Lyndon La Rouche movement conspiracy outfit.
The ballot order in Lyons is Graham, Phibbs, Allan, Bower, Broadby, Offord, di Falco, White. Drawing last on a fairly long ballot is not ideal for White.
Graham Eligibility: If her parents were married when she was born (it seems they were, I've seen a range of evidence) Sarah Graham appears based on her Section 44 form to be ineligible as she appears to be an automatic UK citizen. It was common for UAP candidates at previous elections to be apparently ineligible and this is bound to have carried on to TOP.
Polling/Modelling (Voting Intention)
1. EMRS Nov 5-14 2024 sample size probably c. 200. Incomplete report - without candidates named ALP 34 Lib 31 Green 11 IND 7 JLN 4, with major party candidates named 40-31-9-8-? . White would win easily, probably c. 54-46 and 57-43 to Labor respectively.
2. Redbridge MRP model 29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024 ALP 26 Lib 42 Green 9 other 24 (that's too high if JLN isn't running). 2PP 54-46 to Liberal. (Earlier 50-50 in autumn 2024 and 54-46 in winter)
3. YouGov MRP model 22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025 ALP 26.5 Lib 38.1 ON 12.5 Grn 10.8 IND 6.8 other 3.7 2PP 54.4 to Liberal.
4. YouGov MRP model 27 Feb-26 March ALP 28 Lib 37.7 ON 10 Grn 11.7 IND 6.8 other 5.7 2PP 52.5 to Liberal.
5. Australian Forests Products Association uComms first week of April Incomplete raw primaries (lower than other polls because undecided not reallocated) ALP 27.23, Lib 29.49, , GRN 14.56, Lambie Network 5.8, ON 4.1, Undecided 13.11. 2PP 50.94 to Labor.
6. Redbridge MRP model 3 Feb-1 April ALP 31 Lib 37 Greens 11 others 21. 2PP 52-48 to Labor
7. YouGov 17-24 April Small sample size (446) poll based on named candidates ALP 33.4 Lib 27.8 Green 13 ON 4.4 IND 9.3 TOP 1.8 others 10.3. 2PP 56-44 to Labor
13. Poll-shaped object: News Ltd tabloid "exit polling" had White with a ridiculous lead of 54% to 29% in a sample of 200; I suspect they fell for the trap for beginners and sampled the prepoll at Sorell. [EDIT: It's been reported they sampled all of Launceston, Sorell, Glenorchy, Hobart and Brighton. On average I would expect these prepolls to skew to Labor by about 2.6% 2PP but that ignores any White home booth factor in Sorell.]
Assessment: Labor may hold on now Early in the campaign Lyons attracted unprecedented attention with thoughts that whoever wins it may just win the nation. From a national overview picture it was easy earlier this year to argue that a seat with low education levels and its share of money-stressed outer suburbia was simply toast and this is why the MRP models had Labor losing, mostly heavily. I think it was always more complex than that: the 0.9% margin in 2022 was affected by Mitchell's troubled campaign, and Labor have a higher profile candidate (an obvious potential minister) than a mere sitting backbencher this time around. So I didn't agree with the earlier assessment that the Coalition were clear favourites, I thought it was roughly a tossup. That said I'm not buying too many tickets in the new argument that Labor's rising federal tide has lifted all the boats so Lyons is fine now.
The counter-argument re White's appeal is that she did lose three elections as leader, even if at least one of those wasn't really winnable, and her huge personal votes have come on tickets with modest supporting firepower, so her state career is not conclusive evidence that she can knock this one out of the park. But as Bower's radio gaffes have already shown, White is the more experienced candidate in what has become a challenging seat for the government.
Lyons is a double case of demographic pain for the government because not only is the seat becoming less favourable through political realignment but also its demographics are worsening for the red team. Labor would be pleased to hold the seat by any margin at all.
