This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election. (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.) If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so. Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.
Bass (2021 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor, as at election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND)
North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston
Mixed urban/small-town/rural
Candidates (32)
Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time. It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election. On emailed or Twitter request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that. Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.
Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink. Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.
I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions. Candidates are listed incumbent-first by position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.
The ballot order for Bass is Greens, Walker, JLN, Labor, Liberal, AJP, Brown, Alexander, Shooters, Davenport, ungrouped. Candidates within each column are rotated where there is more than one candidate.
Liberal
Michael Ferguson, incumbent, Deputy Premier, Treasurer, Minister for Infrastructure, Planning and Transport, former federal MHR
Simon Wood, incumbent elected on recount during term, parliamentary secretary, former Launceston councillor (2014-8) and staffer
Rob Fairs, high-profile breakfast radio announcer, former TV host, charity fundraiser and sports consultant
Chris Gatenby, staffer for Sen Richard Colbeck, recent President of state Liberal Party
Labor
Michelle O'Byrne, incumbent, Shadow Minister Police, Women, Heritage etc, former federal MHR
Janie Finlay, incumbent, Shadow Minister Primary Industries, Small Business etc, former Launceston mayor
Roshan Dhingra, "works in retail, investment and has worked for the Labor Party", challenger for best beard of the election
Will Gordon, nurse in paediatrics at Launceston General Hospital, involved in recent COI process
Geoff Lyons, former federal MHR, West Tamar councillor, Windermere candidate 2021, former LGH business manager
(Jenny Hewson was announced as a candidate before tbe election was called but withdrew)
Greens
Greens candidates listed in endorsed ticket order
Cecily Rosol, counsellor, foster carer, former nurse and school chaplain, past federal and minor state candidate
Tom Hall, doctor, anaesthetist, past candidate inc 2019 federal
Jack Fittler, digital and community campaigner for federal Greens
Carol Barnett, painter
Calum Hendry, teacher
Independents With Own Columns
Lara Alexander, first-term incumbent elected on recount, defected from Liberals May 2023, accountant, former St Vincents CEO
Mark Brown driving instructor, former state director of Australian Christian Lobby
Jack Davenport, 2021 Greens lead candidate, advisor to Senator Whish-Wilson prior to campaign, former UK councillor
Tim Walker, Launceston councillor (first elected as a Green, now independent), former ABC journalist and advisor
Brown is not the Mark Brown of Yes AFL Team, Yes Stadium - the candidate Mark Brown is in fact anti-stadium.
Davenport stood for Greens lead position preselection unsuccessfully. After his independent candidacy was revealed while in embargo, the Greens issued a statement revealing he had run last in preselection with 11 votes. Greens preselections are normally very opaque. The move attracted criticism.
Jacqui Lambie NetworkRebekah Pentland, small business (construction/property/labour/apartments), former pharmaceutical business consultant
Shooters, Fishers and FarmersMichal Frydrych (lead candidate), Chairperson Rural Businesses Tasmania, infrastructure projects and business development
(Andrew Harvey was listed as a Shooter but didn't run)
Animal Justice
Ivan Davis, lead candidate 2022 Senate, former farmer, Army musician and SAS trooper etc
Ungrouped Independents
George Razay, first-term Launceston councillor, 2022 Bass candidate, LGH doctor (Alzheimers, dementia etc)
A Quinn post on his personal site gave a platform of banning heart-shaped parmies in pubs.
Julie Sladden Endorsement
Of a number of eyebrow-raising names in the Liberals' candidate rollout the most surprising of all was Dr Julie Sladden, a West Tamar Councillor (elected in 2022 by 3.59 votes, that's not a misprint) who closed her own medical practice in response to COVID vaccine mandates. Sladden has written for Spectator about COVID and in one of her articles (
reproduced here) wrote such things as:
"This ‘thing’ that we have been doing the past two years, is not healthcare. I don’t know what it is, but it is not healthcare, and it was obvious from the start. It is not benefiting the ‘greater good’. It is not looking after grandma. It is not ‘doing our bit and protecting others’. It is not saving lives.
It never was."
This is not just a simple freedom-based or risk-reward approach to COVID mandates that Sladden is taking, she specifically believes that "the latest hospital admission statistics do not support the claim that the unvaccinated are more at risk of serious Covid disease, hospitalisation or death." There's heaps more of it out there: she clearly believes COVID vaccines are dangerous and have no net benefit. And in that sphere, she is a very prominent voice, who is interviewed on some pretty out-there radio programs. For instance she was approvingly interviewed in the same episode as Simeon Boikov in two radio shows on TNT in five weeks in late 2023. (This is not to say she shares Boikov's views, just that both are attractive to a similar fringe audience.)
Sladden has a Twitter account which is currently @DrJulieSladden but was @JulesSladden until 16 Feb or slightly before. It consists of almost nothing but anti-COVID-vax/mandate material though after several minutes of diligent struggle I did find a few tweets about other matters, including lowering fuel tax and agricultural protests in Germany. (Likewise almost all her culture war press publications are on COVID but there are a few on other things, like one
against trans-affirmative practices.) She follows not orthodox Liberals but figures prominent in right-wing culture wars: Bernardi, Babet, Limbrick, Elliot. In the past few months she has, apparently approvingly, liked tweets by Roberts, Julian Fidge, Topher Field, Elliot, Broadbent, Antic, Rennick, Hanson, Deeming and Craig Kelly and a tweet by "freedom movement" videographer Real Rukshan praising Tucker Carlson's interview of Vladimir Putin. She has also
approved of an address by notorious anti-vaxxer Sucharit Bhakdi (who has compared COVID vaccination to the Holocaust and suggested that it was an example of Jews learning tactics from Hitler) to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party.
In June 2022 Sladden had a
letter in The Examiner declaring that Tasmanians had been "living in an autocracy" and the Gutwein/Rockliff government had not been "in charge". She also wrote "
The Tasmanian Public Health Act must be rewritten to protect our democracy in the event of any future ''health emergency''.", the use of scare quotes around "health emergency" implying that COVID was not really a health emergency.
In April 2023 Sladden attended a conference called " Dr Peter McCullough Covid-19 Vaccine Conference" that was hosted by, of all things, the United Australia Party. At this she approvingly interviewed McCullough, an Ivermectin supporter. In May 2023 she wrote an article supporting Ivermectin and saying that she had been "incited" in 2021 by the official response to this drug.
Sladden is active through Legana Christian Church which has the amusing habit of praying for political leaders to "encounter the Risen Saviour" and so on. A former English Channel swimmer, Sladden has coached swimming at a school where Michael Ferguson's wife teaches. In 2014 Sladden was a supporting member for the short-lived state registration of Australian Christians.
This. preselection. is. bizarre. In 2021 Peter Gutwein was re-elected as Premier with the biggest personal vote since the advent of Robson Rotation. This was in large part off his almost universally acclaimed handling of COVID. During the campaign he appeared in a
viral TikTok video where he got "the jab" and in the process showed off his instantly famous panther tattoo. His stance was strongly backed by his Deputy - now in 2024 the Liberals preselect a candidate who thinks COVID vaccines are a con?
It's hard to know whether the Liberals picked this candidate in desperation without checking, or were well aware of her views and think that throwing a bone to the freedom movement, or getting their own candidate cancelled, is a plus. Or perhaps, they have just figured not many people will care beyond one news cycle. On that they could be right.
Jeremy Rockliff has defended the preselection on the grounds of the party being a "broad church". No. A "broad church" in the original analogy referred to a mix of different Anglican interpretations, not to accepting everything under the sun. I don't have the medical knowledge to comment on whether Sladden's claims about vaccines have any merit, but I do have the political knowledge to say that her positions are fringe politics (and I believe they are fringe in the medical community). The rightful home for such views is in so-called "freedom parties" that are not even registered in Tasmania.
Prospects for Bass
Federally, Bass is the "ejector seat" of Australian politics with a long history of almost always throwing out its incumbent, though it took a break from the bloodshed (just) in 2022. Outer Launceston suburbs sensitive to cost of living issues and towns with a strong timber history (eg Scottsdale) often drive this trend.
In the 2021 state election the Liberals polled a massive 60% in Bass to 26% for Labor and 9.2% for the Greens. Under the 35 seat system this would have split either 5 Liberal 2 Labor or 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green. However this was driven by Peter Gutwein's immense personal vote and was unlikely to be repeated unless Papi G rode back on his flying panther to save the day. Results for previous elections would have been 5-2 or 4-2-1 in 2018, 4-2-1 in 2014, 3-3-1 (not too far off 3-2-2) in 2010 and 2-4-1 in 2006 when Labor won its last majority. So it seems like 4-2-1 is the vanilla scenario here given recent statewide polling, but several other things are possible.
The departures of Gutwein and Courtney and the defection of Alexander mean the Liberals have only two incumbents, Ferguson who polled very poorly for a major incumbent in 2021 and Wood who was elected on a recount and has a low profile. Ferguson will bounce back but a large swing against the Government should be expected here and the question is is it large enough (at least, say, 12%) to knock them below four. Recent electorate polling suggests a very large swing - parochial dislike of the proposed Hobart AFL stadium is another factor here - and that the Liberals will be struggling to get more than three here. Fairs is a very high profile candidate who should help fill the gap and has great chances if he campaigns energetically. The preselection of Sladden is causing the Liberals controversy but I am unsure it will harm them in this electorate specifically. Beyond probably Ferguson and Fairs, the field for a remaining Liberal is very open.
The party's problems in Bass are not limited to a weak incumbent lineup. The north-eastern branch imploded amid a stoush between the party and Dorset Mayor Greg Howard and his supporters; Dorset Council is now suspended. Areas like Scottsdale and Bridport are major vote-baskets for the Liberals and very large swings could occur there - or voters might not see a real alternative.
The Labor ticket has strong incumbents in Finlay and O'Byrne and I expect both to retain with the size of Finlay's vote of interest after a good first term. Labor should gain something from the government's problems in this seat. However, Labor needs a solid swing of at least 5%, probably more, to put it in the mix for a third seat. The party seems to be doing reasonably well on the ground in Bass and with the number of departing Liberal voters this isn't completely implausible. (Whistleblower Will Gordon is among Labor's prospects here, and Geoff Lyons also has high name recognition even if his council results have been unremarkable.)
The Greens have been fancied for a seat here post the expansion but are likely to be short of quota on primaries on recent form. If the majors manage six seats between them then the Greens could be left fighting JLN or others for the final seat with perhaps unfriendly preference flows (their best case here is Labor doing well but not too well). Cecily Rosol is not a household name and was not even elected to Launceston Council in 2022 after running as a federal Reps candidate (!), so a Green win here while an obvious chance, shouldn't be taken for granted. The fight with Davenport may do them some harm too, though I do not expect him to get much. But it could be they still get across the line if there is no-one else on enough to stop them.
As for JLN the party's 2022 Senate vote translates to 0.66 quotas, but they would have to add a big protest vote to that given the lowish profile of their candidates and it being a lower profile JLN campaign than federally. Armstrong has some profile through foster care advocacy; I am wondering whether Pentland has actually been the more prominent candidate. Polls vary as to whether JLN are in a winning position here.
There are too many mostly late-announced indepedents in Bass and I am not sure any of these are going to greatly disturb the scorers. Alexander is the most prominent indie as a sitting MP who had high publicity in the election leadup, but she comes from a low personal support base. On one recent visit to Launceston I did detect some level of support for her in terms of corflute presence, but not a huge level. She is also not easy for the kinds of voters normally attracted to indies to vote for, because of her conservative past issue positions (especially on issues like gay conversion "therapy"). That said she does project a "different" image, including opposing native forest logging, so she is not a straight conservative. Despite the publicity she will have received from the election leadup I think it will be hard for her to win.
Outlook for Bass: Aggregated polling estimate for Bass is 3-2-1-1-0 (3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 1 Green.) However JLN and Green seats are not safe with plausible alternatives including 4th Liberal, or maybe Alexander or 3rd Labor.
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