Polling for SA election is very lopsided with right very fragmented
Estimate if Newspoll is correct: approx 1 Liberal and 3 One Nation seats
Off YouGov: approx 4 Liberal and 1-2 One Nation seats
Polling may moderate by election day
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I've been hoping for enough material to start substantial coverage of the South Australian election and it's finally arrived with polls by Newspoll and YouGov. Prior to that there had been a string of extremely lopsided polls last year, and a Fox&Hedgehog poll in a similar vein early last week. The YouGov poll pretty much replicates Fox&Hedgehog's finding that the conservative side is split in two with the Liberals bleeding greatly to One Nation while Labor enjoys a massive lead. The Newspoll is even worse for the Liberals and could (if it happened) even wipe them out completely. My estimate is that on average for the Newspoll voting intentions the Liberals would win one seat and One Nation about three, and for the YouGov poll that the Liberals might manage three or four and One Nation just one or two; it's possible there will be about as many (or more) independents as right-party MPs. However there is a lot still to unfold with where One Nation support goes during the campaign and whether the Liberals can improve.
What is suggested by the polls so far really aint supposed to happen. The Malinauskas government is only at the end of its first term, but it is federally dragged, and not even by a first term federal government at that. John Bannon in 1985 was the last State Premier to get a seat share swing at all in that circumstance. But these are incredible times in polling and Peter Malinauskas is very popular (with a +40 Newspoll netsat). At the same time we have what looks like a severe disruption if not a realignment on the right nationally and the SA Libs are a disaster zone. One has to roll one's eyes repeatedly at news that "Liberal strategists" are hoping for a sympathy vote they don't deserve and trying to argue that a viable opposition is needed. That worked so well for the similarly hapless outfit that was reduced to two seats in WA 2021.
