DemosAU: Could Hare-Clark Help One Nation Shift Tasmania To The Right?

DemosAU Liberal 28 Labor 21 One Nation 21 Greens 14 IND 12 SF+F 2 Others 2

Seat estimate if these vote shares were recorded in election "held now" Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Grn 4 IND 4

After a previous state poll which did not explicitly include One Nation, DemosAU have now included them in their Tasmanian state polling for the first time.  The party, which has been advertised for state registration, debuts on 21%, similar to the 19% it recorded in the May EMRS.  But if we add the Liberal and One Nation votes in the EMRS poll, we get 44%.  In the DemosAU poll, it is 49.

This raises a thought experiment.  Yes, we know One Nation is trashing the Liberal vote everywhere and that they would win seats from the Liberals in Tasmania right now.  But what if, by taking votes from Labor and increasing the overall right vote, they ended up taking a fourth seat for the right in Bass (where the right nearly won four last time anyway), a third seat for the right in Franklin (ditto) and - though this I think would be the hardest part - a third seat for the right in Clark?  (That's on the current boundaries; if the proposed new boundaries are accepted I expect similar scenarios to emerge).  

It's a very long way to the next election, or is it?  After the historic censuring of Premier Rockliff, as prospective Senator Stansfield notes in the latest Poll Position pod, at some point there will be another scandal.  And at that point Labor will have painted themselves into an even tighter corner than before. If they don't want to force another election that nobody wants and that now also floods the House with One Nation, they can either form a government nobody understands, or look comically impotent as they pass meaningless censure motions or do nothing.  

But if vote shares are still something like this whenever the next election does roll around, this poll raises the prospect that Tasmania could see a combined Liberal/One Nation majority.  And indeed thanks to the Hare-Clark system so often unfairly attacked from the right, Tasmania is in one way the easiest place for that to happen!  In the single-seat jurisdictions the Coalition and One Nation combined can have a solid primary vote lead over Labor and the Greens combined and yet still lose elections, because the right vote is divided and the preference flows between orange and blue are not that strong.  But in Hare-Clark, that hardly matters: statewide primary votes by and large convert to seats.  Adjusting off the model in my last EMRS article, my estimate for this poll in an election "held now" on the current boundaries would be:

Bass 2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 One Nation 1 Green

Braddon 2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 One Nation 1 IND

Lyons 2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 One Nation 1 Green

Franklin 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Green 2 IND

Clark 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Green 1 IND

Total 10-9-8-4-4.  And none of these are even close enough for the disadvantage to One Nation of lacking incumbents or high profile candidates to shift them.  

I'm not sure a Liberal/One Nation government with a one-seat majority would last long before someone quit One Nation (or the Liberals!) but if it did it would be an unusual dynamic - One Nation dragging on the Liberals' right and under pressure to deliver for supporters, just as the Greens have dragged on Labor's left in the Field and Bartlett/Giddings years.   Tasmanian politics after many years of moderate domination in the Liberal Party just isn't used to seriously right-wing governments; we really haven't had them since Robin Gray and Ray Groom.  It is possible on such numbers that a power-sharing deal with Labor (the generally overtalked-up "grand coalition") would seem a better option for some Liberals - say each gets two years in office in the term - but I suspect not quite enough.  

All this said, this is only one poll, and EMRS has the stronger track record in the state and demonstrated why again last year.  

Arise ... Queen Kristie!

DemosAU have also polled opinion ratings for various Tasmanian politicians.  The question for these is simply "What is your opinion on the following people?" with options of positive, neutral and negative.

There weren't any massive movements in the latest sample but Kristie Johnston (+5, 22-17) recorded the only net positive rating ahead of Rockliff -3 (35-38), Josh Willie -6 (23-29), Peter George -8 (19-27), Craig Garland -9 (16-25), Rosalie Woodruff -12 (26-38), Guy Barnett -13 (21-34), Dean Winter -16 (18-34, but up seven points), and the left's favourite cartoon villain Eric Abetz -25 (17-42).  Slightly positive net ratings for MPs with low positive and negative scores don't mean an enormous amount but at least in this sample Johnston has "positive" scores on a par with several major figures and negatives well below the other listed crossbenchers.  

The poll also canvassed Preferred Premier with Rockliff leading Willie 41-32 (down two points on his lead last time).  Of interest here are the breakdowns among other party voters; intending Greens voters prefer Willie 51-21, intending One Nation voters prefer Rockliff 42-19 and intending IND voters prefer Willie 31-17.  Those Liberal voters still left in the fold prefer Rockliff 91-2 (!) while Labor voters prefer Willie 82-5.  These sorts of questions tend to skew to incumbents somewhat and Willie is still relatively low profile in the north.  

Update 15 July

I have remodelled this poll as best I can for the redistribution as the boundaries have been confirmed though the intended new name of Tongerlongeter has not.  I get the same result except that Labor falls to one seat in Clark with independents winning two there, while Labor now gets two in Tongerlongeter and independents one.  This would tend to assume that Peter George or a like for like replacement runs in Clark, but how could there be a like for like replacement?  If George retires, Clark is still only one Labor seat (2 Liberal 2 Green 1 Labor 1 IND 1 One Nation).