Tasmania 2025: The Endgame Live

RESUMPTION OF PARLIAMENT FOLLOWING JULY 19 ELECTION

Labor has moved constructive no-confidence motion to transfer confidence of the House from Jeremy Rockliff to Dean Winter

Motion failed 10-24, attracting no crossbench support.

WEDNESDAY: Labor leadership now under consideration (comments added)

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This is an updates thread for what should be, for now, the end of the 2025 Tasmanian election aftermath with the resumption of Parliament today.  The result is likely to be decided either by Labor moving a foreshadowed motion of no-confidence that fails to pass, or by Labor deciding not to move it.  In either of these cases the Rockliff government will have survived for now and won a fifth consecutive election.  However I am keeping an eye on things in case something unusually unusual happens.  (This is Tasmanian politics.  Normality is relative.)

Over the last few days David O'Byrne, the Greens and Kristie Johnston have all announced that they will not support Labor's proposed motion to express no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff and confidence in Dean Winter (see my confidence position tracker).  The Greens have also said that they will not abstain.  On this basis if the motion is put it will get at most 14 votes.  Labor would need three out of George Razay, Peter George, Craig Garland and Carlo Di Falco to demonstrate that the Greens' decision to back the Liberals had decided government, rather than the crossbench being so averse to Labor's attempt that the Greens could not have put Labor in government anyway.  This seems unlikely. [Update: George has just said no as well.]

Based on the order of business there will not be action on Labor's motion (if it goes ahead) until after 2 pm (I am not sure if the motion can go ahead between 2-3).  If the motion does go ahead there is potential for the debate to go for several hours and perhaps go into tomorrow though this will depend on how many MPs want to speak and for how long, and also whether the House chooses to adjourn around 6 pm or continue into the evening until it is finished.  

At this stage there is no sign of it being likely that anything will happen with Labor's motion (if it goes ahead) other than it being put, debated and lost - but there is always the scope for amendments and procedural motions.  There has been speculation on social media and talkback about the two parts of Labor's motion being uncoupled but I think we all know where that could end up.  (I also covered this idea in the introduction to my historic recap of the first day of Parliament in 1989).

The first significant business today is the Speakership election, soon after Parliament starts at 11 am.  Jacquie Petrusma is understood to be the Government nominee (as confirmed by the sudden flood of votes for her yesterday in my sidebar Not-A-Poll) and the Fontcast yesterday said she was expected to win.  (EDIT: a reference to them saying she had Labor support has been deleted here, I've relistened and that was not said.) There has also been speculation about Helen Burnet as either a candidate for Speaker or as Deputy Speaker so it remains to be seen if there will be any ballots.

Updates to be added through the day.  Note that following the live feed debacle in June, the Parliament now also has a YouTube channel - hopefully no problems today! (Instant playback would be nice but!)

11:20 MPs are now being sworn in.  I counted 16 oath-swearers vs 19 affirmers, but that count may not be completely accurate as a couple of Bass MPs appeared to me to be affirming while holding the Bible.  (Last year's count was 17-18).  [EDIT: On checking the video again on a larger screen I get 17-18, unchanged]

11:30 We have a Speaker election!  Labor is nominating Jen Butler against Petrusma.  Butler was an intended Minister if Labor was to form government.  I note that Kristie Johnston this morning supported Petrusma.  

11:40 Petrusma wins 25-10 with Butler presumably getting only Labor votes.    The House is now adjourned (after some hilarity when Janie Finlay reflexively voted No to the motion that the delegation to notify the Speaker go to Government House) til 2 pm.

12:40 The Legislative Council, having sat, is now adjourned to 12 September.

2:00 The House has resumed and the parties are reading appointments.  After this will come the election of the Chair of Committees (aka Deputy Speaker).  No changes to Labor's Shadow Ministry, meaning Josh Willie remains Shadow Treasurer for now.

2:06 Helen Burnet is nominated for Chair of Committees and Labor again nominates Butler.

2:19 Burnet wins 21-12 with 1 informal.  Petrusma presumably didn't vote.  (Update: Burnet is the second Greens Chair of Committees - Tim Morris held this position in the 2010-4 Parliament after defeating Labor's nominee Brenton Best for the position with Liberal support)

2:20 The constructive no-confidence motion is on but it is a cutdown debate with 15 minute speeches, limited to 3 Labor, 3 Liberal, 2 Green and 1 crossbench (not sure if that's 1 from the remainder or if each can speak). The text of the motion is briefer than the 1989 version but has the core elements of no confidence in Rockliff or his government and confidence in Winter.  

2:30 Winter is speaking now and was granted permission to table letters from Rockliff to the racing and salmon industries.  

2:40 Rockliff now speaking.  At the end of his speech he has said he does not intend to call further speakers from the government side.  

2:57 Woodruff speaking now, confirming the motion will not be supported by the Greens. 

3:15 Kristie Johnston now speaking.  Both Woodruff and Johnston have attracted interjections or murmers from the Labor benches for saying that their vote does not mean they have confidence in the Liberals.  In a sense that the crossbench's votes are contributing to Rockliff remaining the MP who holds the parliament's confidence, it is true that their votes are giving confidence to Rockliff for the time being - without any guarantee of continuing to do so.  This can however also be said of Labor, who in November 2024 stated in Parliament that they did not have confidence in the government then voted against a no-confidence motion because they did not like the reasons given for the no confidence motion.  

3:20 David O'Byrne is speaking, criticising Labor for moving no-confidence motions, so clearly each crossbencher can speak.  

3:28 Razay! He is talking about his background of how he got interested in politics.  At the end he confirms he is voting against the motion.   This also confirms that even if the motion had the Greens support it would still fail, meaning that the Liberals will not be remaining in office specifically on account of the Greens.  

3:44 Deputy Labor Leader Anita Dow speaking, confirming that Labor will have three speakers.  

4:03 Deputy Greens Leader Vica Bayley now.  Possibly the sharpest zinger of the debate so far, throwing back Winter's "enemy of working people" line with a suggestion Winter was his own worst enemy.  

4:20 Peter George now speaking for the first time in Parliament.  He says that what has driven his decision is not the Premier agreeing to a salmon farming moratorium but Labor's lack of movement on the issue.  

4:35 Josh Willie now speaking, Labor's third speaker.  Not long to go now. Willie also underlined the point that the crossbench are for the time being giving Rockliff confidence, but also suggested that as a result of this decision the crossbench are putting Rockliff in for four years.  Does this mean Labor is ruling out supporting or moving any future no confidence motion?

4:45 Carlo Di Falco now speaking for the first time (briefly), Labor's second last chance for a vote that's not their own!  Di Falco has referenced a commitment given to him by the Premier on rural health.  Di Falco is also not supporting the motion.  

4:51 Craig Garland now speaking, possibly the last speaker.  He too will not support the motion.

5:07 As mover of the motion, Dean Winter now has right of reply before a vote.  

I'll note that this debate has gone differently to 1989 when the no-confidence motion was moved as an amendment to the address-in-reply.  It seems that it has been agreed to recall parliament quickly so confidence can be tested with the Governor's speech delayed until confidence is resolved.  This was also done in 2010 when Will Hodgman moved a first-day no-confidence motion even though it had obviously no prospect of success.  I am unsure if the change, which  requires the agreement of the parties.  

5:18 Division is on and it's very crowded on the No side.

5:24 Division was 10-24, with Labor not getting a single crossbench vote for the motion, even though seven members of the crossbench voted in favour of the June no-confidence motion.  Some tidying up now before the House adjourns.

5:25 The House will at its rising adjourn to 9 September.

5:27 The Government is now reintroducing legislation that lapsed with the calling of the election.

5:30 Other bills are being introduced.

5:30 THE HOUSE HAS ADJOURNED.  This means the Liberal Party has won the election.  The public service would I expect come out of caretaker.  Rockliff is only the second Australian Premier I can find who has gone to an election following a successful no confidence motion and won it, following Harry Lawson (Nationalist, Vic 1921) - and that case had a similar no-change type seat result.  I think he is the first to continue as Premier through back to back no-confidence motions bookending an election.

I understand the Labor caucus meets tomorrow - as of last night the rumour mill did not suggest any challenges to Winter's leadership but we will see.  

PS:  I want to correct a perception doing the rounds and being traced to Josh Willie's speech (he didn't actually say it).  Labor did not have to move a no-confidence motion simply because of the Governor's statement that she would "leave it to the House of Assembly to determine confidence."  The House could have demonstrated confidence in the Rockliff Government for the time being simply by completing the day's sitting and adjourning without any evidence of a lack of confidence.

Wednesday 

The losers are off to a party room meeting this morning, ahead of which a Left meeting is reportedly occurring at which Josh Willie and runaway Not-A-Poll favourite Ella Haddad are reported to be considering running as the Left's candidate in the event that the Left decides to mount a spill.  

10:30 Pulse has reported Willie will be the left's candidate if there is a contest.  A contested ballot would be a rank and file vote of members and delegates if the 2018 model was followed.  It's often hard to be sure what the rules are with Labor because of the federal intervention.

11:10 More than two hours after the PLP meeting, still no smoke from the Vatican.

1:15 Four hours and fifteen minutes, at this rate they will have lost the next election by the time this meeting finishes.  Pulse has spiced up its earlier report by saying Haddad was "voted out" of the left leadership race, and also with an anonymous source of unknown veracity claiming Winter was threatening to blow up the party if there was a contest.