2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon

 This is the Braddon electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Braddon (Currently 3 Liberal 2 Labor). 

North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone

Regional/rural/remote

Candidates (33)

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored. 

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise. 

The ballot order for Braddon is JLN, Labor, Liberal, Greens, AJP, Shooters, Garland, ungrouped. Candidates within each column are rotated where there is more than one candidate.

Liberal (more to add on some)

Jeremy Rockliff, incumbent, Premier since 2022, Minister State Develpment, Tourism, Mental Health etc

Roger Jaensch, incumbent, Minister for Education, Children, Environment etc

Felix Ellis, incumbent, Minister for Police, Fire, Resources, Skills, Racing etc, ex-plumber

Patrick Fabian, English and Humanities teacher now at Leyland Christian School, not the actor of same name

Sarina Laidler, King Island councillor, beef farmer, King Island development admin officer

Vonette Mead, Deputy Mayor Latrobe Council, operations manager building + construction business

Giovanna Simpson, Deputy Mayor Burnie, youth worker, former owner modelling academy, Pres Burnie Harness Racing Club

Sarina Laidler was in the news when she lost her council seat for missing three consecutive meetings without leave while caring for her dying husband.  She was re-elected unopposed in a by-election.

Simpson was (as of December) secretary of the Jacqui Lambie Network board but JLN were unsuccessful in trying to convince her to run as a JLN candidate.  

Tasmanian Times has sent Mead a long list of questions surrounding conflict of interest accusations, based on questions raised by a resident of Latrobe LGA.. I will note any reply if I see one.  On the last day of the campaign this story made the ABC.  

Labor

Anita Dow, incumbent, Deputy Leader, Shadow Minister Health, Mental Health, Ageing, former Burnie mayor

Shane Broad, incumbent, Shadow Minister Resources and Trade, agricultural scientist (PhD)

Amanda Diprose, Central Coast councillor, 2021 candidate

Sam Facey, quality assessor at McCains Foods Smithton, AMWU delegate

Danielle Kidd, West North West Working (job hub) project manager, ex UTAS Cradle Coast, 2018 candidate

Adrian Luke, director of DMS Energy (electrical/renewable energy)

Chris Lynch, Burnie councillor, Braddon 2022 federal candidate, sound engineer/musician, family based care

Lynch was a controversial candidate in the federal election after a 1994 conviction for possessing amphetamines for sale was revealed.

Greens

Green candidates are listed in party-supplied order

Darren Briggs, emergency doctor, small tourist accommodation operator

Michael McLoughlin, "community services worker", party volunteer organiser, former union organiser

Petra Wilden "environmental scientist"/teacher, 2022 Devonport Council candidate

Leeya Lovell , "teacher assistant", visual artist

Susanne Ward, Workforce Australia and Disability Employment Services consultant 

Erin Morrow, psychologist

Sarah Kersey, "retired small business operator"

Independents With Own Column

Craig Garland, charismatic fisherman, serial candidate, prominent Braddon 2018 federal by-election

For longer Garland background see my 2022 federal guide.

Jacqui Lambie Network

Miriam Beswick, former director of laser tag business Big Big House, carer

Craig Cutts, former SAS medic (Counter Terrorism Squadron) and policeman, 

James Redgrave, military veteran, firefighter, private investigator, Tasmanian Times author.

Redgrave's persistent and at least at times robust questioning of Latrobe Council, which has continued in JLN colours (10:40 in), has contributed to a council report entitled 'Dealing with difficult customers options' and an estimate of $14,000 in staff costs.  See more detail here where Redgrave's name is mentioned 62 times including that he is acting on behalf of clients.  Redgrave was also involved in a rescue incident on the campaign trail.

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Dale Marshall (lead candidate), Labrador breeder and pigeon racer, former merchant seaman, industrial hydraulics

Brenton Jones, launch master and marine engineer, previous frequent Shooters candidate

Kim Swanson, degree in agriculture, former horse stud manager, boutique winery co-owner, previous candidate

Animal Justice Party

Julia King, music teacher

Ungrouped Independents

Gatty Burnett, former youth worker, social media conspiracy theorist, longer profile in Murchison 2023 guide

Andrea Courtney, Waratah-Wynyard councillor, mental health and hospital worker

Peter Freshney, Mayor of Latrobe, businessman in communications infrastructure

Liz Hamer, West Coast Councillor, Strahan farmer, ungrouped candidate 2018, 2021

Prospects for Braddon

Braddon is an electorate where resource development and employment issues have long been very significant, and the Green vote has lagged behind the rest of the state.  It was once very socially conservative and has been a swing seat federally, but seems to be realigning towards the Liberal Party. Braddon gave the Voice referendum a big thumbs down with 72.2% voting No.  Gavin Pearce held the seat easily at the 2022 election, with Labor criticised for preselecting Lynch on the basis of the above mentioned old drugs conviction.  

There was drama in the Braddon count in 2021 with former MP Adam Brooks recovering his seat narrowly at the expense of Felix Ellis, only to resign hours later after being charged with firearms offences.  Ellis won the seat back on his recount.  

From time to time the electorate votes very strongly for a given party, so the seat produced the only 5/7 seat results in the previous 35-seat system (1972 Labor and 1992 Liberal) and in 2014 it produced the 25-seat system's only ever 4/5 seat haul for the Liberals.   In 2021 the Liberals polled 57.2%, Labor 26.5%, Garland 6.1%, Greens 5.5% and Shooters 3.8%.  This would have been either a 4-2-Garland result or 5-2, depending on candidate effects.  

The 2018 result would probably have been 5-2 (very close to 4-2 with one JLN), 2014 would have been 5-2 or 4-2 with one Palmer United, 2010 would have been 3-3 with one Green and 2006 when Labor won a majority would have been 3 Liberal 4 Labor.  Interestingly if the state election repeats the 2022 House of Reps vote shares, the results would be 3 Liberal 2 Labor and both Lambie Network and Garland - but Garland does not poll as strongly when up against multiple-candidate state tickets.  Garland's vote in this case stood up well despite controversy over sharing conspiracy theories and links to fringe antivax elements.  As at mid-Feb 2024 I am not sensing that Garland is quite as active as in the past but if his vote holds up he is still a contender.  In some scenarios I have found that Garland can win if he can poll as little as 5%, as he is likely to get preferences and leaks from everywhere.  

Peter Freshney was very popular in Latrobe at the last Council election, polling 36% of the Councillor vote despite not having to campaign for Mayor, so there is a foothold there if enough voters want independents but find Garland too niche or out there.  While it was not ideal to be running from the ungrouped column, Garland polled a strong vote there last time.  However I am doubting that Freshney's campaign is of sufficient scale to be successful.  Latrobe has also seen a lot of turbulence that is boiling over into the state election.  

Rockliff's elevation to Premier should boost the Liberals further and they have a reasonably strong ticket with Jaensch (who polled a low primary last time but did well on preferences), Ellis (who has become far more prominent in this term, albeit at times controversially, eg the now-dropped fire levy) and also two female Deputy Mayors (Simpson in particular seems a good candidate).  But even so for the Liberals to win five they would have to have very little swing against them statewide and that seems ambitious on recent polling.  A swing of around 9% would put them in the danger zone for dropping to 3. That seems less of a risk than in Bass.  

Braddon is the Lambie Network's home base and strongest division although Craig Cutts who appears to be their lead candidate is not a high-profile name (indeed James Redgrave is probably better known and reportedly more active) and the party may struggle with leakage as a result.  In 2018 JLN only got 6% in Braddon, whereas in 2022 they got 12.3% in the Senate. 

I had been expecting Labor to retain two easily but a Freshwater sample with the party on a miserable 15% raised the question of whether the strength of Jeremy Rockliff and the Lambie Network could push Labor down to just one seat (Anita Dow) in Braddon with Shane Broad losing.  I understand that there is other concern this could happen too.   The Greens are an outside to remote chance and would probably have to get very fluky with the distribution of votes for other parties, especially as preference flows for them tend to be bad in the area.  The protest vote in Braddon tends to be elsewhere.  

Outlook for Braddon: Aggregated polling estimate is 4-2-0-1-0 (JLN wins seat).  However, Garland could take either the 4th Liberal or 2nd Labor seat.