EMRS: What Doesn't Kill Rockliff Just Makes Him Stronger

EMRS: Lib 38 ALP 24 Green 13 IND 19 others 6
As Tasmanian polling overstates Independents, poll suggests no change from election
Lowest ALP primary since Feb 2014

Jeremy Rockliff has been through a lot of drama as Premier in the last two and a half years.  In May 2023 two Liberals quit the party and moved to the crossbench, putting his government into minority.  In September 2023 the government went further into minority following Elise Archer's forced resignation from Cabinet and Rockliff threatened to call an election to ward off the risk of Archer sitting as an independent without providing confidence and supply.  In February 2024 Rockliff called an early election after the relationship with the two ex-Liberals deteriorated further.  There was a large swing against the Liberals but they managed to form a minority government with confidence and supply agreements from four crossbenchers.  In August 2024 the Lambie Network collapsed and in the fallout Rockliff no longer had reliable confidence and supply guarantees.  In October 2024 Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson resigned over the long-running Spirit of Tasmania saga to ward off a no-confidence motion.  In November 2024 a crossbench no-confidence motion in Rockliff failed after Labor voted against it when their attempt to remove the crossbench's preferred reasons for it failed.  In June 2025 Labor moved their own no-confidence motion, which passed, and in theory Labor could have taken over government mid-term but they did not seek to do so, and an election was held, with a looming deficit crisis now more evidence for critics of the government to run on.  The Government somehow got a 3.2% swing in its favour.  The newly elected parliament (with very similar numbers overall) still included 17 seats worth of previous no-confidence voters plus two new MPs who were highly critical of the government, and could in theory easily have backed Labor.  

Not-A-Poll: Australia's Worst Opposition!

I've started a new Not-A-Poll in the sidebar where readers can vote on who is Australia's worst Opposition.  The exasperating behaviour of Tasmanian Labor over the last few days (weeks, months, several years ...) has drawn comparisons to the Canberra Liberals and Victorian Liberals and suggestions they are now a forever opposition.  I was thinking about this as I struggled for words to explain to some rusties just how unready for government Tasmanian Labor have just shown themselves to be.  It suddenly occurred to me in a flash that we are living in a golden age of dreadful Oppositions.  Not all Australia's nine current Oppositions stick out as terrible but in any normal time most of these would go straight to the bottom of the pile, if not the sea.  

What we have at present is surely the worst average quality of oppositions that has been seen for decades, and this is bad for democracy as some of the governments they are up against (by no means all) are very mediocre.  So in round 1 of this Not-A-Poll, which will run for two months in the sidebar, voters can vote on which of the current Oppositions is the worst.  In round 2 we will vote on how many of them are actually going to win!  A reminder, if viewing on mobile you can scroll down and click "view web version" to see the sidebar and participate in Not-A-Polls.

In considering the dreadfulness of a state or territory Opposition, this poll is mainly about their performance in state and territory politics, but efforts of the local branch in screwing up federal and local performance can also be considered.  

Our contenders, sorted by time in opposition ...

Tasmania 2025: The Endgame Live

RESUMPTION OF PARLIAMENT FOLLOWING JULY 19 ELECTION

Labor has moved constructive no-confidence motion to transfer confidence of the House from Jeremy Rockliff to Dean Winter

Motion failed 10-24, attracting no crossbench support.

WEDNESDAY: Labor leadership now under consideration (UPDATE: Josh Willie replaces Dean Winter)

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This is an updates thread for what should be, for now, the end of the 2025 Tasmanian election aftermath with the resumption of Parliament today.  The result is likely to be decided either by Labor moving a foreshadowed motion of no-confidence that fails to pass, or by Labor deciding not to move it.  In either of these cases the Rockliff government will have survived for now and won a fifth consecutive election.  However I am keeping an eye on things in case something unusually unusual happens.  (This is Tasmanian politics.  Normality is relative.)

Over the last few days David O'Byrne, the Greens and Kristie Johnston have all announced that they will not support Labor's proposed motion to express no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff and confidence in Dean Winter (see my confidence position tracker).  The Greens have also said that they will not abstain.  On this basis if the motion is put it will get at most 14 votes.  Labor would need three out of George Razay, Peter George, Craig Garland and Carlo Di Falco to demonstrate that the Greens' decision to back the Liberals had decided government, rather than the crossbench being so averse to Labor's attempt that the Greens could not have put Labor in government anyway.  This seems unlikely. [Update: George has just said no as well.]

Based on the order of business there will not be action on Labor's motion (if it goes ahead) until after 2 pm (I am not sure if the motion can go ahead between 2-3).  If the motion does go ahead there is potential for the debate to go for several hours and perhaps go into tomorrow though this will depend on how many MPs want to speak and for how long, and also whether the House chooses to adjourn around 6 pm or continue into the evening until it is finished.  

At this stage there is no sign of it being likely that anything will happen with Labor's motion (if it goes ahead) other than it being put, debated and lost - but there is always the scope for amendments and procedural motions.  There has been speculation on social media and talkback about the two parts of Labor's motion being uncoupled but I think we all know where that could end up.  (I also covered this idea in the introduction to my historic recap of the first day of Parliament in 1989).

Tasmania 2025: What Went Down When Gray Met The House In 1989

The State Of Play

It's been a rather slow lead-in to Tuesday's resumption of parliament following the as-yet not-firmly-resolved 2025 Tasmanian state election.  Although it has been known for eleven days now that parliament will be resuming on Tuesday, it took til today for any of the seven crossbench units (David O'Byrne for Rockliff) to clearly state support for one side or the other.  Three (the Greens re Labor, Craig Garland and Carlo di Falco re Liberals) have so far said at some stage that they weren't backing one side or the other unless something changes, but all have left the door open for the target of their disappointment to come good.  (See my confidence position tracker for a summary of who has said what.)

An apparently major issue for Labor's foreshadowed constructive no-confidence motion that would be designed to replace Jeremy Rockliff with Dean Winter is the position of the Greens, although it's not clearcut that the motion will pass even if the Greens support it.  There is an impass here in that the Greens are saying they cannot support Labor's motion without concessions on key policy areas but Labor is saying it won't provide any because it went to the election with a clear platform of doing no deals with the Greens.  I'd suggest that the two parties badly need a neutral mediator here except it's not clear these positions can be mediated, and presumably Labor would consider any outcome of a mediation to be a deal with the Greens.  (I have devised a magnificent scheme in which it would actually be a deal with the mediator, which the margin of this page is too small to contain etc ...)

Tasmania 2025: Confidence Position Tracker

Premier Rockliff recommissioned pending meeting the House on 19 Aug
Labor or an independent expected to move constructive no confidence motion 

If motion passes, Labor expected to form government

If motion fails, Liberals remain in office for time being

At this stage neither side has or seems likely (with current position) to get 18 votes in secured long-term confidence and supply agreements

Article current as of 19 August 5:30 pm

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Provisional tally on constructive no-confidence vote

As of 19 Aug if no changes in declared positions, constructive motion will not pass in its intended form.  

Yes: Labor (10)

No: Liberals (14)

Confirmed (8): David O'Byrne, Greens (5), Kristie Johnston, Peter George

Stated on floor (3): George Razay, Carlo Di Falco, Craig Garland

Motion was defeated 10-24 (Liberal Speaker not voting)

Tasmania 2025: Just As Hung But More Polarised

TASMANIA 2025: LIB 14 (=) ALP 10 (=) GRN 5 (=) IND 5 (+2) SF+F 1 (+1)
(Changes from 2024 result.  JLN (3 seats 2024) did not run, their former MPs running as two Nationals and one independent, all defeated)

Counting is over for an election that finished up in much the same place as last year's ... but not quite, and this will be a rather different parliament despite the big three all coming out with what they went in with.  At present, Premier Jeremy Rockliff is intending to be recommissioned to meet the Parliament (see pathways to government article), but the storm clouds have been gathering since election night as to whether he has any prospect of surviving another no-confidence motion when Parliament resumes, let alone whether he can govern with any stability.  It didn't get any easier for him yesterday with Craig Garland ruling out supporting his party and expressing willingness to vote no-confidence again, and Peter George expressing serious reservations (while also making comments that might not make life easy for Labor either).  The writs will be returned on Tuesday, kickstarting the week in which the Governor must appoint somebody, presumably Rockliff, to meet the House, preferably sooner rather than later.

The past four minority governments elected as such in Tasmania lost the next election outright, some of them heavily.  This is the first to stop that rot since the Reece Government was re-elected with a majority in 1964, and that government had spent over two years in majority during its term after picking up a seat on a recount.  The Rockliff government has not only avoided net seat losses but had a 3.2% swing to it.  And for those saying that the days of majority government are gone forever, beware, they did not actually miss one by very much.  The Liberals finishing eighth in three divisions has enabled me to determine that on swings of 0.94%, 1.82% and 2.30% from the winners, they would have won the final seats in Franklin, Clark and Lyons respectively - the first two of which would have given them the numbers for a potential government with Carlo Di Falco and David O'Byrne (assuming those two were agreeable).  In Bass, the Liberals' elimination in tenth place makes it hard to be sure what swing would have won them the seventh seat, especially as keeping the Liberals in the final seat race requires eliminating someone who didn't actually get excluded.  But I think that about a 3% higher primary vote would have been enough, meaning the Liberals could have won a majority off about 43%.  Wherever it goes from here, this was a close election.

2025 Tasmanian Election: Pathways To Government

This article is part of my Tasmanian election 2025 postcount coverage.  

Link to tallyboard thread

Links to individual postcount pages: Bass Braddon Clark Franklin Lyons

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I did write a fair amount about the formation of the next government in the tallyboard thread but it's got somewhat buried in the postcount pages and I wanted to do a new thread to discuss the different pathways to government that might occur after the election. At this time we are starting to see what I suspect will be rather a lot of gnashing and wailing on the pages of The Australian (especially if Labor keeps trying to form government) but a lot of it is clueless.  (Just a note in case anyone thinks I am part of the gnashing and wailing for my tallyboard heading "Tasmania Remains Ungovernable" - nup, it was a reference to "become ungovernable"; I am celebrating the way Tasmanians collectively refused to be told what to do and gave the major parties back another mess.)

As I start this article the numbers sit at Liberal 14 Labor 10 Greens 5 IND 4.  The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are strongly placed in Lyons and the last seat in Bass is a multi-party scramble with five or six contenders - we will know the outcome of that around August 2.

Meeting the House

The first thing I want to underline is that whatever the numbers, whatever the deals, whatever the deal-shaped objects, Jeremy Rockliff is the incumbent Premier.  As the incumbent he has the clear right by convention to be recommissioned in order to "meet the house" and enable it to decide his destiny.  Also he clearly intends to do it.   It is common for Premiers in minority governments who appear to have lost the election (and it is not clear this is the case for Rockliff yet) to do this, because in theory an MP who was going to back the opposition might change their mind in the middle of the debate, and because decisions about whether a Premier has lost confidence should be made by Parliaments and not by the Governor's reading of MP's letters.  The widespread misreading of Johnston's 2024 letters is a good example of why confidence needs to be determined on the floor.  It is only where the office of Premier is vacant that the Governor must make a provisional decision.  

2025 Tasmanian Postcount: Lyons

ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS

LYONS (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN)

(At Election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 Nat)

SEATS WON 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 SFF

SEAT WINNERS: Jane Howlett (Lib), Guy Barnett (Lib), Mark Shelton (Lib), Jen Butler (ALP), Brian Mitchell (ALP), Tabatha Badger (Green), Carlo Di Falco (SFF)

SEAT LOST: Andrew Jenner (Nat)

NOTE: The Lyons count involves a complex Hare-Clark scenario and has been rated Wonk Factor 4/5.  

Click here for link to tallyboard page with links to other postcounts

2025 Tasmanian Postcount: Franklin

ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS

FRANKLIN (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

SEATS WON (CALLED): 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 2 IND

SEAT WINNERS: Eric Abetz (Lib), Jacquie Petrusma (Lib), Dean Winter (ALP), Peter George (Ind), David O'Byrne (Ind), Rosalie Woodruff (Grn), Meg Brown (ALP)

SEAT LOST: Nic Street (Liberal)

IND (Peter George) gain from Liberal

Click here for link to tallyboard page with links to other postcounts as written