BRADDON (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 1 IND)
(At Election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Nat 1 IND)
SEATS WON (CALLED) 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND
SEAT WINNERS: Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Gavin Pearce (Lib), Felix Ellis (Lib), Roger Jaensch (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP), Craig Garland (IND)
SEAT LOST: Miriam Beswick (Nat)
Liberal gain from National
One election Braddon canes the Liberals by becoming the first non-marginal seat to be lost by an Opposition to a Government in federal election history. The next election, this ... there can be no purer example of how Tasmanians view state and federal politics differently.
While I thought the Liberals were a chance for four seats here I thought it would most likely be by squeezing the Greens through a favourable distribution of votes in their ticket. Instead the Liberals have polled a stonking 49.7%, let's call it 50% because it may well get there, in their own right.
The Liberals in Braddon have 3.97 quotas, Labor 1.90, Craig Garland 0.82 and the Greens 0.58. I'm not bothering with third decimal places here because this result is clearcut. Garland as a lone independent will improve his position relative to the Greens because he cannot leak votes whereas they will leak votes as minor candidate are excluded, but it doesn't matter because the Greens would not get near him anyway.
Premier Rockliff has 2.53 quotas in his own right. His surplus will elect Gavin Pearce. On past form it will also bring Roger Jaensch up closer to Felix Ellis and well clear of Giovanna Simpson (Jaensch has a history of polling modest primary votes but huge shares of Rockliff's surplus), but that will be confirmed early in the cutup. Then exclusions from the bottom up and at some point all of Ellis, Jaensch, Dow, Broad and Garland will all either cross quota or be left without quota but way clear of the Greens.
In the event that the Greens were competitive the poor concentration of their vote in the seat, with only 36.6% being 1 Bleyer, down from the 53.0% for Darren Briggs last time, would be a major problem for them anyway. Garland has performed very well in roughly doubling his 2024 vote.
Except for Garland the remaining independents have mostly served to clutter up the ballot paper and have polled risibly low vote shares, as have the Nationals.
As this seat is completely settled barring the confirmation of the usual Rocky/Roger surplus surge, I won't be paying Braddon much attention in this postcount. However, there will be some updates.
Sunday 20th: Liberals 2 votes short of 50% today.
Tuesday 29th: Preference distribution has started with another very low leakage rate of just 5.8% out of the Rockliff surplus. The surplus has elected Pearce, and Jaensch has predictably pulled around 2000 ahead of the minor Liberals confirming that he will win the final Liberal seat.
A note that I am not now tracking this seat closely but will add a note now and then as to how it is going.
Wednesday 30th 3:10: Very little to say about the Braddon count other than that the slowness of the cutup is a good example of why having too many uncompetitive candidates is a problem, though if the TEC goes to computer data entry in the next cycle it will not matter as much.
5:15 Miriam Beswick (JLN-Ind-Nat) is excluded. Stumps day 2.
Thursday 31st 10:25 After the current exclusion of Scott Jordan (Green) the next one will be Adam Martin (IND). It's possible Martin will put Craig Garland in, he needs 46% off Martin at the moment but that will come down a bit after Jordan.
10:48 Garland needs 40.3% off Martin to cross at this count - seems like a good chance to do it.
12:34 Missed by 22! Because of the number of votes that have exhausted, Garland is now mathematically assured of re-election. If this doesn't occur on leakage from Kate Wylie (Lib, now being excluded) it will certainly occur off Erin Morrow.
12:53 Garland is elected with exactly a quota partway through the Wylie exclusion, which is handy as he will not have a surplus to throw.
5:50 Felix Ellis elected with surplus. Stumps day 3.
Friday August 1 10:10 am Giovanna Simpson has been excluded and that will put Roger Jaensch close to quota, then Kelly Hunt will be excluded which will put Anita Dow over with a surplus. Then Adrian Pickin will be excluded and his votes may put both Roger Jaensch and Shane Broad over, or even if they don't both will be way clear of Vanessa Bleyer who will be left in the count in eighth.
1:00 I reckon Jaensch at least will get quota off Pickin.
4:00 Dow elected with a surplus of 764 which will mostly go to Broad, could well be Jaensch and Broad both make quota off Pickin.
4:50 On to the Pickin throw - Broad 8249 Jaensch 8137 place your bets.
6:30 All over in Braddon - Jaensch beats Broad for sixth by 59 votes, leaving Labor over Greens by 3697 as the final margin. (5.23% or 2.62% swing to change, not very close).
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