Peter Gutwein Resignation And Recount

Retiring MP: Peter Gutwein (Liberal, Bass)

Recount from 2021 election for remainder of 2021-25 term

Recount for seat between Liberals Simon Wood and Greg Kieser 

Simon Wood won recount easily as expected

Jeremy Rockliff elected Premier unopposed. 

Recount updates 26 April

Recount updates will be posted here today as news arrives.  The number of ballot papers to be counted is very large but an outright majority for Wood on the first count (pretty likely I think) would speed things up.  Not sure if the result will be today, but if so I'd think late today.  

Tuesday night: the update late tonight shows Wood with nearly two-thirds of the vote with nearly two-thirds counted, confirming he will win tomorrow.

Wednesday: Wood wins on primaries as expected and by lots, 61%-28.9%.  

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In breaking news Premier Peter Gutwein has announced he is resigning as Premier and from Parliament later this week.  Gutwein was Premier for just two years and three months but in that time led his party to the retention of its majority (a very unusual feat for a seven year old government while the same party held office federally) and vied with Mark McGowan for the highest opinion poll ratings recorded in Australian polling history.  Gutwein's leadership of the state during the early days of the pandemic was acclaimed, though in the last few months opinion of the state's reopening has been divided and his ratings were starting to return to earth.  Gutwein has stated he is resigning for more family time.  His devotion to a massive workload saw him hospitalised with exhaustion and he has had some difficult challenges recently including isolation after a family member tested positive, and also revealing that he was a survivor of an attempted sexual assault as a teenager.  

This is very fresh and this article will be updated as the Premiership story develops.  I will start with the known unknown - the battle to replace him, and other parts as I can.

Bass Recount

Gutwein's successor will be determined by a recount of the immense mountain of votes he had when elected (the second highest personal vote in Tasmanian history by percentage, and the highest since the advent of Robson Rotation).  This will certainly elect another Liberal in this case.  The following is the breakdown of Gutwein's votes:

43.72% 2 for Sarah Courtney 

33.91% 2 for Michael Ferguson

5.21% 2 for Simon Wood

4.30% 2 for Lara Alexander

3.75% 2 for Greg Kieser

9.11% 2 for Non-Liberal candidates

Courtney was elected and has since resigned so cannot contest this recount.  Ferguson and Alexander are current MPs, so this leaves only Wood and Kieser.  

Courtney had a small surplus and we know that at least 4.8% of those 1 Gutwein 2 Courtney votes were 3 Kieser while at least 15.93% were 3 Wood.  47.8% of the 2 Courtneys were 3 Ferguson and 23.7% were 3 Alexander.  

Adding these up Wood starts with at least 12.18% of Gutwein's total and Kieser starts with at least 5.83%. 

It's also known from Courtney's earlier recount that at least 38.2% of her votes in that recount flowed to Wood and at least 13% flow to Kieser with 3.6% exhausting.  However only about 80% of that surplus was 1 Gutwein 2 Courtney with the rest being 1 Courtney (the 1 Courtney votes do not feature in this recount.)

If the two types of votes mentioned above are similar then I can project that of about a third of the vote that could be assigned on that basis, Wood starts with about 22% of Gutwein's total and Kieser starts with at least 9.4% with about 1.6% exhausting.  While there is no hint where the remaining 67% go, I have no reason to expect that the lead will be overturned (Wood was a former Launceston councillor and hence may have had a geographic advantage over Kieser) and I think Simon Wood starts a clear favourite for the recount if he contests.  If either of Wood or Kieser does not contest the other will win, but both contested the Courtney recount.  

The recount will be held on 26 April.

Parliament to be prorogued

Parliament will be prorogued until after Easter to again avoid a situation where the Liberals are temporarily without a majority pending the recount.  There are precedents for this in other one-seat majority situations - see discussion here.  Update: Parliament is prorogued until May 3.

Contenders 

We wait to see who might contest the leadership of the Liberal Party, and hence presumably the Premiership.  

The most popular choice if interested would be Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff.  However Rockliff (then Will Hodgman's deputy) did not contest when Hodgman resigned and has been himself often considered close to retirement after 20 years in Parliament.  There is word now that Rockliff, a moderate, may be running this time.  If Rockliff does not run, the cupboard is relatively bare on the moderate side with others relatively short on popularity, electoral experience or both.  Education Minister Roger Jaensch and Sport and Recreation Minister Nic Street are the next most experienced but Jaensch only just held his seat in 2021 and Street (the party's most distinctly moderate MP) has only just been elected in his own right for the first time.  

Infrastructure Minister Michael Ferguson was Peter Gutwein's opponent in 2020 when Hodgman resigned but withdrew, having clearly not had the numbers.  Ferguson is a former federal MP.  He has a few recent scrapes against his name - a lacklustre vote in the 2021 election, a difficult time in the Health portfolio and being one of the two MPs targeted by the Opposition during the recent "groan" saga.   However unless Rockliff runs, he might benefit from a lack of experience on the moderate side of the party, with Gutwein's most obvious heir on that side Sarah Courtney having also resigned recently.

On the conservative side Attorney-General Elise Archer (candidate for Deputy on Ferguson's ticket) and Minister for Resources Guy Barnett are also experienced and high profile ministers.  Archer was also caught up in "groangate" but has otherwise been an uncontroversial Minister aside from her famous sporadic conflicts with renegade former Speaker Sue Hickey.  Barnett has had a pretty good run in recent years but has not had to deal with as much contentious stuff as some.  Either Barnett or Ferguson would arouse opposition from the secular left because of their religious-right social issue past, though this aspect has been less visible for both in recent years.  

Other MPs who have been on the Liberal benches for more than a few years are the Speaker Mark Shelton and also Police Minister Jacquie Petrusma.  I'd be surprised if either would run if some of the above were in the mix. 

The Tasmanian Liberals do not have open factions but a conservative vs moderate divide is often visible on social issues and appeared to be a factor in the previous leadership race.  With the recent turnover of MPs I am unaware where some of the newer Liberal MPs might line up if that does contribute.

Through the day I expect to hear who is stepping forward and whether or not there will be a contest.

Tuesday Updates:

12:45 The ABC reports Jeremy Rockliff is said to be "very keen" to run.  The Mercury reports Ferguson may become Deputy Premier and Treasurer with Archer not seeking a leadership role so it does not appear there will be a ballot for leader.

2:00 On the contrary Emily Baker now reports that Elise Archer may be interested in the Deputy Premiership.

Wednesday: Both Rockliff and Archer have indicated interest in being Premier and Deputy respectively.  Ferguson is yet to publicly make a move.  Archer has argued that gender and geographic balance favour her as Deputy.  

Thursday: Ferguson is running for Deputy so it appears there will be a Ferguson-Archer ballot unless one of them withdraws on account of not having the numbers.  The ballot is scheduled for tomorrow.  Emily Baker yesterday reported one Liberal source saying that there was wide support for Ferguson to contest.  Ferguson's statement appears to imply that he has Rockliff's support, though that is unconfirmed.  

Friday: Rockliff/Ferguson confirmed.  Archer did not nominate.