EMRS: Liberals Have Big Lead But Still Well Short Of 50

This article is part of my 2024 Tasmanian state election coverage - link to main article page

EMRS Liberal 39 Labor 26 (-3) Greens 12 JLN 9 IND 14 others 1 
Liberals would clearly be largest party

Seat estimate if poll is correct Lib 15-16 ALP 10 Grn 2-3  JLN 2-3 IND 3-5

Just one poll - there will be others!

Advance Comments

A quarterly poll by Tasmania's most experienced state pollster EMRS, which has a rather good track record, has just dropped.  It shows a complex scenario that is also, if correct, a sorry one for Labor.  This poll will have the Liberals happy in that it has them as the only party within reach of a majority while Labor are bleeding votes to independents and JLN.  It follows a YouGov poll that differed mainly in having the Liberals in the low 30s and a much higher Lambie vote.   The poll suggests that if there is a hung parliament, it will be one where Labor will only be able to govern deeply in minority with multiple partners, while the Liberals may have simpler paths to government if anyone will help them.  

Liberal Agrees Tasmanians Are Ostriches

(This is a special article for my Tasmania 2024 election coverage; click here for link to main page with links to other articles)

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It's been widely expected that when Tasmania's supposed AFL team name is unveiled days out from the election (hmmm) the name will be the Devils, Warner Bros' outrageous trademark nonsense based on their cartoons about our animal notwithstanding. Just in case "Devils" isn't available, I've been scratching my head for an alternative, and I've found one.  We can follow the lead of Liberal Bass candidate Julie Sladden and we can call our team the Tassie Ostriches! Here is a jumper mockup.

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Lyons

This is the Lyons electorate guide for the 2021 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Lyons (Currently 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND). 

(2021 Election Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)

Most of the state

Rural, outer suburban and forested.  

Lots of tiny dispersed towns that take many years for an MP to work

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Franklin

This is the Franklin electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Franklin (Currently 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

(Elected at last election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green)

Eastern shore Hobart (Clarence City), much of Kingborough, Huon Valley, D'Entrecasteaux Channel

Urban/outer urban/treechange/rural

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Clark

This is the Clark electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Clark (Currently 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green 1 Independent)

Western shore Hobart, primarily Hobart City and Glenorchy City

Inner and outer urban

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon

 This is the Braddon electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Braddon (Currently 3 Liberal 2 Labor). 

North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone

Regional/rural/remote

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.) If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Bass (2021 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor, as at election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND)

North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston

Mixed urban/small-town/rural

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide Main Page

POSTCOUNT

No party has won a majority but the Liberals are the largest party.  

Seat postcount pages will be linked here when written.

Bass

Braddon

Clark

Franklin

Lyons

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Welcome to the main page for my 2024 Tasmanian state election coverage.  This page will carry links to all the other articles about the election that I write prior to the close of polling, and will contain general big-picture stuff and links to all the specialised articles (once these are written).  It will be updated very frequently.  Each electorate will very soon have its own guide page.  Note that these are my own guides and I reserve the right to inject flippant and subjective comments whenever I feel like it; if you do not like this, write your own.  This guide and all the others will evolve over coming weeks.  

I will be covering the election counting night for the Mercury from the tally room; all post-count coverage will occur on this website.  

Announced Candidates For The Next Tasmanian State Election

NOTE 14/2: Guide main page has been launched.  Seat pages are up and linked from the headings below, I will try to keep updating this article too but as a lower priority.

Updates on the current "ultimatum" situation were posted on the previous article.  

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Donations welcome!

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Introduction

This article is a list of endorsed or self-declared candidates who are running for the next Tasmanian state election; some unconfirmed or rumoured candidates are also mentioned in italics.  The election isn't "due" til May 2025 but could happen soon as a result of ongoing tensions between the Rockliff minority Liberal government and two MPs who defected to the crossbench.  I have written this article with two main possibilities in mind.  The first one is that the election is still at least a few months away or even next year, in which case the article will serve as a useful resource piece in the meantime and will help highlight the major early build-up of candidates for the benefit of history, with 83 known candidates at the time I started the article on 6 Feb 2024, some of whom have been running for many months.  The second is that the election is close and writing this piece now will be something of a waste of time, but in that case we will have an election!   So it's a win-win.   

Election Alert Time As Rockliff Demands Tighter Deal From Defectors

Updates scrolling to top

Tuesday 13/2 Updates

All going well here, Alexander has launched a massive spray at the government accusing it of being like an "abusive partner" and referring to the departures of other female MPs.  While the departures of Sarah Courtney, Jacquie Petrusma, Elise Archer and yes Alexander are all capable of being explained without reference to gender it's not helpful for the Liberals that they have ended up with only 1 woman out of 11 in the Lower House - small sample size is a hard concept to make fly in politics.

2:00 The Liberal Party meeting is still on but journalists are reporting that March 23 appears to be on.

Sunday 11/2 Updates

The Premier is now stating he is "actively considering requesting the Governor for an early election" on the grounds of the independents having not accepted his terms, and also citing "trust issues".  Monday is a public holiday (Regatta Day), on which an election call is possible but seems unlikely.  On Tuesday there is a Liberal party room meeting, the time of which I don't have yet.  If it is early in the day, a call on Tuesday afternoon would not be surprising, assuming the independents have not capitulated in the meantime (which seems unlikely).