Dr Kevin Bonham

ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. THE AFR HAS CREDITED A VICTORIAN STATE PENDULUM TO ME BUT IT AINT MINE. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES.

Monday, November 24, 2025

EMRS: Liberals Slip But Labor Again Doesn't Pick Up The Scraps

EMRS Lib 34 ALP 25 Green 17 IND 19 others 5 Seat estimate off this poll if election "held now" Lib 13 (-1) ALP 10 Green 6 (+1) IND...

Brad Battin's Booting Is A Poll History Outlier

(Note for Tasmanian audiences: I will have the usual article about the latest EMRS poll up sometime tonight or tomorrow) The last fortnight ...

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

DemosAU: Liberals Increase Lead Ahead Of Budget

DemosAU: Lib 41 Labor 24 Green 15 IND 14 SFF 2 others 4 Liberals would be re-elected in minority, probably gaining one seat A surprise Demos...

Monday, October 27, 2025

False Declaration: Minor Right Nonsense About Senate Reform

Huge if true, but ... Recently my attention was drawn to an article on the Canberra Declaration website by one Dave Pellowe. Pellowe is bet...

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Australia's Worst Oppositions: How Many Will Win?

Recently I started a Not-A-Poll to determine who readers consider to be Australia's worst opposition in what I have dubbed a "gol...

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Tasmanian Redistribution: Clark Must Expand, But Where?

I don't usually get involved in redistribution speculation and lobbying (I don't even have the time and skill to draw nice maps) but...

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Yes Federal Parliament Should Be Expanded And No It Isn't A Partisan Fix

Federal JSCEM season is upon us and who knows I might manage to write a submission soon. But for now on this site I want to comment on one ...

Friday, September 26, 2025

2025-2028 2PP Aggregate Methods Page

Because I have way too many things to do right now I decided in my usual fashion to do one more that isn't any of them! Introducing my ...

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Poll Roundup: Liberal Crisis As Honeymoon 2.0 Rumbles On

Cross-poll estimate 56.3 to Labor (+1.0 since election) I'm some way off putting out a 2025-8 term polling aggregate, partly because I ...

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About Me

Kevin Bonham: Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; "Ego as big as Texas and about as flexible as a steel bar." - Ian Rist (Tasmanian fox conspiracist) ... "a spectacularly awful person with the morals and ethics of a snake." - Matthew Sweeney (chess troll) ... "great defender of logging" - Adam Burling (forest recidivist) ... "self appointed polling maestro" - Professor Peter ('Nazis are socialists') van Onselen ... "a pragmatist and a propagandist who panders to the greed of the powerful" - Malcolm Mackerras AO ... "rude and ridiculously self-important" - Mike Carlton (Twitter's most boring swearer) ... "eminently undesirable" - Van Badham ... "an eminent member of our society" - Rosemary Armitage MLC ... For a ridiculously old profile article that badly needs updating (including disclosure statement) see here. For email link click on profile.

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