Sunday, February 15, 2026

Farrer By-Election 2026

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Farrer (Lib vs IND 6.2%, Lib vs ALP 12.9%) By-Election date TBD, perhaps late April/early May Cause of by-election resignation of Sussan Ley...
1 comment:
Friday, February 13, 2026

DemosAU: Status Quo-ish Poll, But Is There An Elephant Outside The Room?

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DemosAU: Liberal 35 Labor 23  Greens 15  IND 17 SF+F 4 others 6 Although poll finds Liberals down five on election, most likely result based...

Not-A-Poll Reset 1 of 2026: Ley Rolled

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Well at least she lasted longer than Alexander Downer. As expected by a strong plurality of voters in my sidebar Not-A-Poll, Sussan Ley, who...
Saturday, January 31, 2026

The Low Impact Of Independent Preferences In Labor's 2025 Federal Win

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At the 2025 federal election, more votes that were 1 One Nation or 1 Trumpet of Patriots (combined) finished up with Labor candidates as pre...
2 comments:
Friday, January 30, 2026

Poll Roundup: What Do We Do With A Split Coalition ... Or A Rampant One Nation?

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2PP Aggregate 53.5-46.5 to ALP (-1.3 since end of 2025, +0.6 in two weeks) Shadow-2PP Trend Estimate 54.3-45.7 to ALP vs One Nation.  One Na...
2 comments:
Monday, January 26, 2026

Dear Anti-Preferencers, November 21st For Australia Day !!!

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Support for changing the date of Australia Day has really been on the skids in recent years.  Partly this has been because referendums have ...
2 comments:
Thursday, January 22, 2026

What's the most federal electorates you have been to in a day?

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A trip from Brisbane to Sydney in one day takes you through about 24 federal divisions. This is a sequel to How many federal electorates hav...
4 comments:
Thursday, January 15, 2026

Why Hunter 2025 Can't Be Used To Do Last-Election Labor vs One Nation Preference Flows

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With the very rapid rise of One Nation in recent national primary voting intention polling we are starting to see some pollsters offer a nat...
1 comment:
Thursday, January 8, 2026

This Person And Why They Are Wrong: Episode 1, Wasted Vote Guy

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  The gloriously cooked tweet above reminded me of a series I'd been intending to start where now and then I would cover someone known i...
3 comments: