2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Lyons

This is the Lyons electorate guide for the 2021 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Lyons (Currently 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND). 

(2021 Election Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)

Most of the state

Rural, outer suburban and forested.  

Lots of tiny dispersed towns that take many years for an MP to work

Candidates (36)

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored. 

The ballot order for Lyons is Greens, Labor, JLN, Tucker, Shooters, Liberal, AJP, Offord, ungrouped.  Candidates within each column are rotated where there is more than one candidate.

Liberal

Guy Barnett, incumbent, Attorney-General, Justice, Health, Veterans Affairs, former Senator

Mark Shelton, incumbent, Speaker, former minister Police, Local Govt etc, former Meander Valley mayor

Jane Howlett, incumbent first-term MLC for Prosser, former Sports, Small Business etc minister, 2018 candidate

Gregory Brown, recent candidate for Pembroke and Rumney, farmer, former bartender/licensee

Stephanie Cameron, Deputy Mayor Meander Valley, farmer, deputy president of party

Justin Derksen, advisor to Guy Barnett, background in building, Derwent Valley Councillor, 2021 candidate

Richard Hallett, prominent Hollow Tree farmer, chair Southern Highlands Irrigation Scheme committee.  

A grant to a distillery headed by Justin Derksen's brother Tarrant Derksen has been a public controversy during this term.  

(Meander Valley Mayor Wayne Johnston was announced as a candidate before the election was closed but withdrew)

Labor

Rebecca White, incumbent, Labor leader since 2017 except for a few months in 2021

Jen Butler, incumbent, Shadow Minister Veterans, Building, Consumer Affairs etc

Edwin Batt, Mayor of Southern Midlands, 2021 candidate, farmer

Ben Dudman, Meander Valley Councillor, electorate officer for Brian Mitchell, 

Casey Farrell, CEO Enterprize Tasmania (business startups firm), also Neon Jungle (design/technology)

Richard Goss, "high school teacher with a mechanical and construction trade background", Northern Midlands councillor

Carole McQueeney, Glamorgan-Spring Bay Councillor, registered nurse, company director, teacher etc (five degrees!)

(Derwent Valley Mayor Michelle Dracoulis was announced as a candidate before the election was called but withdrew)

Greens 

Tabatha Badger, past Wilderness Society convenor, Lake Pedder restoration campaigner, former minor Senate candidate

Alistair Allan, Antarctic and Marine Campaigner, Bob Brown Foundation

Mitch Houghton, 2021 Bass candidate when noted here as horticulture business owner/operator

Hannah Rubenach-Quinn, former Break O'Day councillor, chaplain, disability support worker, 2014 state and 2016 federal candidate

Craig Brown, retired GP

Glenn Millar, Landcare group president and tour guide, also ran 2014-21

Gary Whisson, ecologist, 2018 state and 2019 federal candidate

Independents

John Tucker, incumbent, defected from Liberals May 2023, farmer, former councillor

Angela Offord, Launceston vet, has been involved with Voices for Tasmania

Jacqui Lambie Network

Andrew Jenner, former UK Tory mayor and magistrate (see below), self-employed in catering/leisure, 6th dan judo black belt 

Troy Pfitzner, removalist (Little Green Truck), 2022 Lyons candidate for JLN

Lesley Pyecroft, Army veteran, registered nurse (schools and LGH)

Jenner's occupation is listed as "Retired Magistrate" but the term "magistrate" in the UK has a different meaning to Australia.  A UK magistrate is a voluntary position that does not require a law degree.  

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Carlo di Falco (lead) target shooter, hunter, gun collector, frequent Shooters candidate

Philip Bigg, hunter, tradesman, state party secretary, best beard of the election contender

Shane Broadby trout fisherman and instructor, Nyrstar plant operator, 2018 candidate

Wayne Turale has been a: policeman, store owner, Rural Health co-ordinator, statewide outreach manager, fly fisherman etc, 2018 candidate

Ray Williams owns New Norfolk Mitre 10 and Williams Outdoors, former candidate for Libs (2002), SFF and Citizens Electoral Council

Animal Justice Party

Anna Gralton 2022 Lyons candidate, customer care specialist, sociologist (PhD), gave me some entertainment compiling guide with description of husband as a "rescued animal"

Ungrouped Independents

Jenny Branch-Allen, former Glenorchy councillor, CEO Kidsafe Tasmania

Fraser Millar, Southern Midlands councillor, distillery owner, farmer, media platform entrepreneur

Andrew Roberts, Property maintenance contractor

Loueen (Lou) Triffitt, Mayor of Southern Highlands

Andrew Roberts ran in the 2013 Senate race as a "True Green" independent candidate and had 38,000 anti-gay fliers intercepted by Australia Post and not delivered.  Also later ran for Family First and has signed a trans-exclusion pledge for "Women's Forum Australia". 

Prospects for Lyons

I usually class Lyons as a "northern" seat because it is more similar to Bass and Braddon than Franklin and Clark, but it is less Liberal-leaning than the first two named.  In 2021 the Liberals got 51.2%, Labor 32.5%, Greens 8.9% and Shooters 4.5%.  In the 35-seat system (but coming off a 25-seat election) that would be 4-3-0 or 4-2-1.   For previous elections Lyons would have gone 4-3-0 in 2018, 4-2-1 in 2014, 3-3-1 in 2010 and 2-4-1 in 2006.

The Liberals have lost Tucker, but the replacement of Tucker with Howlett means they probably haven't lost anything in profile terms (he only polled 6.5% anyway).  Nonetheless if there is more than a few points against them then winning four (Barnett, Shelton, and probably at least one of Cameron and Howlett) will get hard.  That's not to say Howlett has a perfect form guide; she resigned from Cabinet in 2022 for personal reasons but was also under pressure over conflict of interest allegations, and despite numerous reshuffles since has not returned, with Labor asking if she is under investigation by the Integrity Commission.  Most voters in Lyons are unlikely to care.  Cameron performed well in the 2021 election. If Howlett is defeated she can most likely run for Prosser again in May.  

White will poll a massive vote again (in fact she polled exactly the same number of primary votes in 2018 and 2021) and Butler has had a second term to further build profile and did well off White's preferences last time.  The recent history suggests Labor don't need a swing to be well in the mix for three, but the minor party / indies mix is stronger here than before too. Some of the arguments I've heard re Labor getting three here refer to White's leadership, but she was also leader in 2018 and 2021 so that's already in the baseline.  If there are only two it will be interesting to see if any of Labor's new candidates (some have suggested Casey Farrell as a chance) can threaten Butler.  

The Greens were close to the 35-seat mark in the last two elections despite candidates who were problematic (2018) and virtually unknown (2021).  Badger seems a way better candidate combining the party's environmental roots with a fresher image for the party, but she doesn't yet have the profile of the Greens' only two previous Lyons winners, Christine Milne (leader of a massive anti-pulpmill campaign) or Tim Morris (who had been Mayor of Derwent Valley).  I doubt the Greens can get quota on primaries in Lyons but can they get enough to make the top seven and stay there?  Will be interesting to see.

Lyons could be the Lambie Network's best or second best prospect based on the federal result for Pfitzner, who polled 10.86% and finished third after preferences.  This wasn't all about Brian Mitchell's social media embarrassments either as the Network was only 1% below him in the Senate.  Pfitzner is a relatable working class candidate who debates well about basic issues and will have name recognition from the federal run.  (Jenner has UK local government experience but wasn't elected to Clarence Council in 2022).

Opinions vary about Tucker, the question being whether his high profile as a crossbench rebel can drag voters across the aisle or from other Liberal candidates, and whether there is the anger at the government in rural Lyons that there seems to be in parts of Bass.  Not all his 6.5% from last time are going to vote for him again given his defection.  Tucker's campaign so far looks well presented though it's short of online presence;  I just hope there will be more ads like this, or this.  The Liberals running Howlett (and also Hallett and Brown, farmers) will help fight for Tucker's former votes but Howlett's first promise on the campaign trail should be no more shopping videos.

Outlook for Lyons (to be refined): The messiest electorate.  While my aggregate has 3-2-1-1-0 as the leader (JLN and Greens win) if Tucker can get a high enough vote he could defeat any of JLN, the Greens or apparently the third Liberal.  Labor chances of three seem to have faded.