2023 New South Wales Postcount: Coalition vs Independent Seats

( Link to classic seats and Kiama thread and seat tally)

Covered on this page: Pittwater, Willoughby, Wollondilly

Pittwater (Now assumed Liberal win vs IND)

Willoughby (Now assumed Liberal win vs IND)

Wollondilly (IND expected to defeat Liberal)

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This thread will follow the NSW state election postcount for lower house seats that are close between the Coalition and independents.  

Overall the independent vote at this election is running quite high, currently at 8.8% though that may come down.  The independents elected as such or as Shooters last election have all retained (mostly with large swings) and Michael Regan has easily won Wakehurst.  Ex-Liberal independent Gareth Ward is struggling in Kiama.  

For all the talk about teal independents having flopped again I think their performance has been okay given OPV and funding caps, but most have clearly been defeated.  In Manly and North Shore they are clearly second but too far behind, in Lane Cove Victoria Davidson is too far behind even if she does get into second.  Regan could be considered teal-adjacent but does not seem to have used teal branding, which is also the case for Larissa Penn in Willougby.  

This thread examines the remaining independent contests in Pittwater, Willoughby and Wollondilly.  A general factor is that independents have a history of performing poorly in postcounting of pretty much any kind.  However where the same independent made the top two in the seat last time, it is easier to account for this through projections.

Pittwater (Lib vs ALP 22.4%)

Pittwater is vacant following the retirement of minister Rob Stokes and has attracted a prominent teal campaign for candidate Jacqui Scruby.  With 57.6% counted Scruby has a precarious 27-vote 2CP lead over Rory Amon (Liberal).  However, Bilgola Plateau Public and Newport EVC booths are not yet counted to 2CP and when they are I would expect them to put Scruby about 450 votes ahead (about 51-49).  There is so far a very strong gain rate for Scruby of about .41 votes per preference.  One of the remaining PPVs is Narrabeen which looks favourable for Scruby who won adjacent booths, and her performance on prepolls and postals so far has been OK.  More caution is needed than for a two-party seat but at the moment Scruby looks to be well placed.

Monday 10:00 Amon has done very well at Pittwater EM Office prepoll and now has 50.5%.  The problem of INDs doing badly on absents could rear its head here; if Amon continues to get good prepoll booths like that one he may become safe.

Tuesday 1:30 Amon now 50.8% and I'm assuming he is home.

Willoughby (Lib vs ALP 20.7%, Lib vs IND 3.3% at by-election)

Larissa Penn, a pre-teal local independent who uses purple branding but seems politically teal-adjacent, gave the Liberals a fright in the by-election for Willoughby following Gladys Berejiklian's resignation.  She is currently trailing Tim James by just under 400 votes (50.7 2CP), and Poll Bludger projects 50.4 to James.  53.7% of turnout is in and there are no outstanding 2CPs.  The remaining prepoll locations don't look scary for James and at the moment I don't see anything to suggest he will not hold.  

Monday 2:05 James has jumped out to a 51.8-48.2 lead with 70.7% counted; I don't see that being overturned so I am now assuming he has retained and will not be following the seat anymore barring something unusual happening.

Wollondilly (Lib vs ALP 14.2%, Lib vs IND 6%)

Another example of how tealish independents who say they're not teals are as common as goths who say they're not goths, Judy Hannan is a former Liberal way back in the 2000s and a former local mayor who was somewhat competitive as an indie in 2019.  Gladys Berejiklian tried to bring Hannan back into the Liberal Party but the concept was rebuffed by local preselectors and it seems the rebuff was unwise.  Hannan is running just 6.5% behind the Liberals' Nathaniel Smith on primaries and is leading 51.7-48.3 after preferences with 50.6% counted.  I expect her 702 vote lead to grow by a few dozen when three uncounted booths reach the 2CP stage and then it's just a question of how she goes on postcount votes.  There is a case that this can still end up close as in 2019 Hannan polled 46% 2CP in on the day booths but ended up on 44.5; this year she polled 52.1% in the booths, and the postcount will be larger.  It looks like a tall order to quite get all of her current margin back though, but let's at least see some prepolls.  The Liberal primary in this seat is not that high and they're probably suffering badly from One Nation votes exhausting here.

Monday 2 pm: Antony Green is reporting that Hannan has done well in the Wollondilly EM Office prepoll but numbers from it have not yet appeared.

Monday 3 pm: Antony has also found what looks like a transposition of preferences error in the Mittagong Public booth which when fixed will add nearly 300 to Hannan's lead.  It looks like she will get another 1000 out of Wollondilly EM Office prepoll and it therefore appears that she has won the seat.