Showing posts with label swings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label swings. Show all posts
Friday, July 11, 2025

2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum

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As in 2022 I've decided to issue my own post-election pendulum for the 2025 federal election.  I've done this partly because post-e...
Friday, March 7, 2025

Western Australia 2025: Final Polls Predict Another Drubbing

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Note for Saturday night:   I have a clash with a chess tournament on the weekend and it is not clear whether or not I will be able to do liv...
Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Queensland 2024: Final Results And Poll Performance

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Queensland: LNP 52 ALP 36 KAP 3 GREEN 1 IND 1 2PP Estimate 53.76% to LNP (+6.89% from 2020) The 2024 Queensland election is over.  At one st...
1 comment:
Saturday, August 3, 2024

"Safe Seats" Falling Is Nothing New

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The Australia Institute and its director have been putting out a lot of its usual Hung Parliament Club type stuff about how "power sha...
Saturday, July 27, 2024

Northern Territory Election 2024: Prospects and Polling

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Welcome to my coverage of the Northern Territory 2024 election, which has snuck up on us all with just four weeks to go til polling day as I...
1 comment:
Sunday, April 14, 2024

Every Child Wins A Prize: Federal Seats With Swings To All Contestants

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During last night's Cook by-election count there were a few comments about the swing column.  All six parties/independents had recorded ...
Friday, July 28, 2023

Rockingham By-Election 2023: How Big A Swing Is Too Big?

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Note for Tas audiences: Cassy O'Connor recount is covered here ----------------------------------------------- Rockingham (WA) (ALP 37.7...
3 comments:
Saturday, July 15, 2023

Fadden Live: Who Gets The Swing?

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Summary Fadden (LNP 10.6%), vacancy for resignation of Stuart Robert CALLED (7:26 pm) Cameron Caldwell (LNP) retain Small 2PP swing to LNP (...
2 comments:
Saturday, May 13, 2023

New South Wales 2023: Final Results, Poll Accuracy And 2PP Pendulum

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It's been a long time coming because of other work but here finally is my wrapup piece for the 2023 New South Wales lower house election...
4 comments:
Friday, December 16, 2022

Victoria 2022: Lower House Results, Poll Performance And Pendulum Tilt

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 LABOR 56 (+1) COALITION 28* (+1*) GREENS 4 (+1) IND 0 (-3) (Changes are compared to last election) (* Assuming Narracan is retained) Curren...
7 comments:
Saturday, June 25, 2022

Two-Party Swing Decided This Election (Plus Pendulum)

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We're now just over a month out from a remarkable House of Representatives election.  There's been a lot of attention on the seat ga...
1 comment:
Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Two-Party Swing Is A Fine Predictor Of Seat Share Changes (And No It Isn't Getting Worse)

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I am hoping to have a Senate prospects piece up by the end of tomorrow but before that I think I need to address something I am hearing too ...
3 comments:
Friday, February 11, 2022

New South Wales Feb 12 By-Elections Live And Postcount

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Bega (Lib 6.9%) - CALLED 8:48 pm Holland (ALP) gain. Monaro (Nat 11.6%) - CALLED 8:02 pm Overall (Nat) retain. Strathfield (ALP 5.0%) - CALL...
3 comments:
Sunday, February 7, 2021

How Much Does A Home State Federal Leader Matter In That State?

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This piece came about, indirectly, because the Courier-Mail was printing silly sentences again.  A piece commenced with the following lines:...
8 comments:
Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Queensland 2020: Final Results And Poll Accuracy

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 Queensland: ALP 52 LNP 34 KAP 3 GREEN 2 PHON 1 IND 1 2PP Estimate 53.13% to Labor (+1.9% from 2017) Another Queensland election is over.  I...
1 comment:
Saturday, May 11, 2019

New South Wales 2019: Final Lower House Results And Poll Accuracy

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Amid the gearing up for the federal election, the finalisation of the NSW election figures has been largely ignored.  For whatever reason it...
6 comments:
Saturday, December 15, 2018

Victoria 2018: Final Lower House Results, Poll Performance and 2PP Pendulum

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LABOR 55 SEATS COALITION 27 GREEN 3 IND 3 There is no single method of calculating 2PP for this election.  The following are examples of po...
4 comments:
Saturday, October 20, 2018

Wentworth Live: Majority On The Line Again (Plus Post-Count)

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WENTWORTH (Lib vs ALP 17.8%) Dave Sharma (Lib) vs Kerryn Phelps (IND) (16 candidates total) GAIN by Phelps (IND) - margin will exceed ...
38 comments:
Friday, September 14, 2018

Wentworth By-Election: Prospects And Polls

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WENTWORTH (Lib vs ALP, 17.8%) Cause of vacancy: Resignation of Malcolm Turnbull A by-election for Wentworth has been set down for Saturda...
10 comments:
Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Batman Bits And Pieces

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There are a few points of interest I thought were worth commenting on quickly following Labor's drubbing of the Greens in the Batman by-...
3 comments: