Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Friday, April 4, 2025

Poll Roundup: Budget Does Nothing As Per Normal

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2PP Aggregate 51.1 To ALP (2022 preferences) (-0.1 since end of last week) With One Nation adjustment 50.5 to ALP If polls are accurate, Lab...
3 comments:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Rolling National Poll Roundup: 2022 Final Days

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2PP Aggregate: 53.5 to Labor (-0.6 since last week) (not a prediction) Cross-poll average of polls released in last week: 53.0 to Labor  (We...
3 comments:
Monday, December 27, 2021

2021 Federal Polling Year In Review

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 At the end of each year I release a review of federal polling results for the year.  See the 2020 edition here , or click the "annual ...
1 comment:
Friday, March 26, 2021

2021 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Main Page

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Header added 2 May: The election h...
19 comments:
Tuesday, December 29, 2020

2020 Federal Polling Year In Review

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 At this time I normally release a review of the year in federal polling that, among other things, states the number of federal polls releas...
3 comments:
Friday, October 30, 2020

Queensland 2020: Rolling Final Days Roundup

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I'll be covering the Queensland election here on election night and in detail throughout the postcount, though on some days I may be bus...
1 comment:
Friday, August 21, 2020

NT Election Final Roundup

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Counting night approaches for the 2020 Northern Territory election, which I will be covering with live comments here in a separate post and ...
1 comment:
Sunday, June 16, 2019

Seat Betting As Bad As Anything Else At Predicting The 2019 Federal Election

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Advance Summary 1. Seat betting markets, sometimes believed to be highly predictive, did not escape the general failure of poll and bettin...
Saturday, May 18, 2019

Election Eve: Final Newspoll and Seat Betting Roundup

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2PP Aggregate (Final): 51.6 to Labor (Last-election preferences) (51.3 with One Nation adjustment) Seat projection assuming polls are ac...
4 comments:
Thursday, May 16, 2019

Rolling Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: The Final Days

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2PP Aggregate 51.5 to Labor (by last-election preferences) (-0.3 since last week) 51.1 with One Nation adjustment Current seat projection ...
5 comments:
Thursday, May 9, 2019

Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: The Polls Are Getting Closer (To Each Other)

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2PP Aggregate 51.8 to Labor (2016 preferences) (-0.1 since last week) 51.4 to Labor (with One Nation preference adjustment) Current seat p...
5 comments:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Poll Roundup: Make Newspoll Preferences Great Again!

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2PP Aggregate: 51.9% to Labor (last election preferences) (-0.5 since last week) 51.6% with One Nation adjustment Labor is still winning, ...
7 comments:
Friday, April 19, 2019

Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: Ellis Impersonator Edition

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2PP Aggregate 52.5 to Labor (unchanged) On most recent polling Labor would win a majority if election held now, with around 83 seats. The...
10 comments:
Monday, April 8, 2019

Poll Roundup: Well-Received Budget Yields A Kitten-Sized Bounce (Maybe)

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2PP Aggregate: 52.5 to Labor (2016 preferences) (-0.5 in a week) (51.9 with One Nation adjustment) Labor would win election "held now...
3 comments:
Friday, March 22, 2019

NSW 2019: Final Day Roundup

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SUMMARY: Polls imply likely Coalition victory, but if so, majority status is still touch and go. This thread will cover anything I think i...
Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Poll Roundup: 2018 Year In Review

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2PP Aggregate: 54.2 to Labor (last election preferences) (+0.2 since two weeks ago) With One Nation adjustment: 53.6 to Labor Labor would ...
3 comments:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018

A Token Post About Modelling The 2018 Victorian Lower House

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VICTORIA (ALP 45 COALITION 38 IND 3 GREEN 2) Seat modelling on assumed 2PP of 53.4 to Labor currently gives estimate around ALP 47 Green ...
1 comment:
Saturday, January 20, 2018

2018 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Main Page

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The election has been won by the Liberal Party. Go here for postcount links: Bass Braddon Denison Franklin Lyons ===================...
5 comments:
Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Recent Polling On The Same-Sex Marriage Postal Survey

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The national ABS postal "survey" on whether the law should be changed to allow same-sex marriage in Australia is now in its second...
10 comments:
Thursday, August 24, 2017

ReachTEL: Bob Brown Foundation Peddles A Poll Porky

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ReachTEL (commissioned) Liberal 41.2 Labor 33.3 Green 13.1 PHON 4.4 Ind/Other 8.0 Interpretation Liberal 41.2 Labor 37.1 Green 10.4 Other ...
1 comment: