Showing posts with label Morgan Gallup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Morgan Gallup. Show all posts
Saturday, December 25, 2021

Psephology And The Palace Letters

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It's a nearly annual tradition on this site to release something every Christmas Day.  (Click the Xmas tag for previous examples.) It...
7 comments:
Thursday, March 11, 2021

When Federal Polls Are 50-50, Oppositions Rarely Win

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For nearly a year of federal polling, an unusual situation has existed.  The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has polled very high personal r...
5 comments:
Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Oh No, This Wasn't Just An "Average Polling Error"

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As previously noted , Australian opinion polling has just experienced its first clear predictive failure, in pick-the-winner terms, in a fed...
12 comments:
Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Poll Roundup: 2015 Year In Review

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2PP Aggregate: 53.5 to Coalition (+0.1) Coalition would win election held now with unchanged to slightly increased majority It's just...
Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Poll Roundup: One Year On / The Magic Of Newspoll Rounding

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2PP Aggregate: 51.7 to ALP (+0.1 since last week after no change in previous week) The Government's First Year In Polling This we...
2 comments:
Thursday, November 14, 2013

Early Abbott Era Polling Roundup

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(Note: an update has been added at the bottom following the surprising first Nielsen result and other signs of narrowing in late November.  ...
4 comments:
Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: New Dawn Fades Edition (August 27)

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2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 27 August): 52.3 TO COALITION (+0.3 since last week) Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 59.5 seats (-1.5...
Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Ghost of '75 Edition (20 August - Updates Added)

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TASMANIAN POLLING COMING: Check here on Saturday and Sunday mornings from 9 am and there will be extensive commentary on state and federal r...
3 comments:
Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Scruff Of The Neck Edition (August 13)

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2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 13 August): 51.5 TO COALITION (+0.7 since last week) Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 63 seats (-2, Fo...
6 comments:
Sunday, August 11, 2013

A Field Guide To Australian Opinion Pollsters

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As of September 2016 this is an archived old edition that is no longer being updated.  For the 45th Parliament (2016-) edition go here . ...
6 comments:
Thursday, June 6, 2013

Newspoll Upfront Exclusion Rates Since 2002

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Advance Summary 1.  Some observers think that the proportion of voters who are indicated by Newspoll as "uncommitted" or "r...
Saturday, June 1, 2013

How Common Is A Five-Point Swing In Under Four Months?

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Advance Summary 1. The Gillard government now probably needs a swing back in public opinion of around 5% in three and a half months to win...
Friday, December 21, 2012

The Silly Season 2: End-Of-Year Poll Myths

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Advance Summary 1. There has been some recent debate about the Government's polling position going into an election year. 2. The ide...
Friday, November 16, 2012

As Gillard recovered, so can Abbott?

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Advance summary : 1. The view has been advanced that since Julia Gillard has become much less unpopular, then so can Tony Abbott. 2. Thi...
Friday, November 9, 2012

Leadership Transition, Polling And The Greens

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 NOTE: This is an old article that has had various minor data updates and a short postscript added in May 2013.  The basic conclusions are n...