Dr Kevin Bonham

ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. THIS MACHINE KILLS BAD ELECTORAL SYSTEMS. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES.

Showing posts with label 2025 federal. Show all posts

Showing posts with label 2025 federal. Show all posts

Saturday, January 31, 2026

The Low Impact Of Independent Preferences In Labor's 2025 Federal Win

At the 2025 federal election, more votes that were 1 One Nation or 1 Trumpet of Patriots (combined) finished up with Labor candidates as pre...

Monday, January 26, 2026

Dear Anti-Preferencers, November 21st For Australia Day !!!

Support for changing the date of Australia Day has really been on the skids in recent years. Partly this has been because referendums have ...

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Why Hunter 2025 Can't Be Used To Do Last-Election Labor vs One Nation Preference Flows

With the very rapid rise of One Nation in recent national primary voting intention polling we are starting to see some pollsters offer a nat...

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Poll Roundup: Liberal Crisis As Honeymoon 2.0 Rumbles On

Cross-poll estimate 56.3 to Labor (+1.0 since election) I'm some way off putting out a 2025-8 term polling aggregate, partly because I ...

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

How Labor Won 94 Seats Off A Modest Primary Vote. It Mostly Wasn't Preferences

Example of a 2025 election whinge meme seen on social media In the unhinging that has followed Labor's massive victory in the 2025 feder...

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Bradfield Court Of Disputed Returns Challenge

BRADFIELD (NSW, IND, 0.01) Disputed Returns challenge to win by Nicolette Boele over Gisele Kapterian (Lib) by 26 votes This is an ongoing t...

Friday, July 11, 2025

2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum

As in 2022 I've decided to issue my own post-election pendulum for the 2025 federal election. I've done this partly because post-e...

Saturday, July 5, 2025

2025 Federal Election Pollster Performance Review

Oh no, not again ... On the day after the 2019 federal election I did the most media interviews I have ever done in one day, eleven. Eight ...

Sunday, June 1, 2025

2025 Senate Notes Part Two

This is part two of a detailed review that I write after each Senate election. See part one for a general introduction and coverage of pro...

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Goldstein Count History And Partial Recount

GOLDSTEIN (Vic, IND vs Lib est 3.9%) Tim Wilson (Lib) has provisionally won by 260 votes AEC has authorised a partial recount Wilson will wi...

Sunday, May 25, 2025

2025 Senate Button Press Thread

Welcome to my 2025 thread to cover the so-called "button presses" (in fact the execution of a computer routine) that distribute pr...

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

2025 Late Postcount: Calwell

CALWELL (ALP 12.4%) Basem Abdo (ALP) vs Carly Moore (IND) Abdo leading on primary votes during preference distribution ALP retain I should...

Monday, May 19, 2025

2025 Late Postcount And Expected Recount: Bradfield

And it has come to this .. BRADFIELD (Lib vs IND est 2.5%) Gisele Kapterian (Lib) vs Nicolette Boele (IND) Boele led by 40 votes at end of...

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Not-A-Poll Reset 1 of 2025: Dutton Loses Seat

This morning Sussan Ley became the first female federal leader of the Liberal Party, elected 29-25 over Angus Taylor. Taylor was running on...

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

2025 Senate Postcounts: National Thread

Discussion of counts that have finished or reached zero unapportioned votes now appears on the button press thread . FINAL WINS ALP 16 L-...

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

2025: House of Reps Postcount: Ryan

RYAN (Grn vs LNP 2.65, Grn vs ALP 3CP 4.75) Whichever of Elizabeth Watson-Brown (GRN) and Rebecca Hack (ALP) makes final two wins seat. Wats...

Monday, May 5, 2025

2025 House of Reps Postcounts: Labor/IND Realignment Seats (Bean, Fremantle, Franklin)

On this page Bean - Expected ALP retain (very close) Fremantle - Expected ALP retain Franklin - Called by me as easy ALP win on election ni...

2025 Tasmania Senate Postcount

2025 TASMANIA SENATE CALLED ELECTED Carol Brown (ALP #1), Richard Dowling (ALP #2), Claire Chandler (LIB #1), Nick McKim (Green #1) CONTEST...

2025 House of Reps Postcount: Monash

MONASH (Vic, Lib 2.9%, occupied by deselected ex-Lib IND) Issue was whether Deb Leonard (IND) could make final two and whether she could win...

Sunday, May 4, 2025

2025 House of Reps Postcount: Melbourne

MELBOURNE (Green 6.9% vs ALP) Adam Bandt (Green) vs Sarah Witty (ALP) Labor win after 2CP realignment WARNING: Explaining what is going on ...

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About Me

Kevin Bonham: Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; "Ego as big as Texas and about as flexible as a steel bar." - Ian Rist (Tasmanian fox conspiracist) ..."a spectacularly awful person with the morals and ethics of a snake." - Matthew Sweeney (chess troll) ... "great defender of logging" - Adam Burling (forest recidivist) ... "self appointed polling maestro" - Professor Peter ('Nazis are socialists') van Onselen ... "a pragmatist and a propagandist who panders to the greed of the powerful" - Malcolm Mackerras AO ... "political actor" - William Bourke, founder of the so-called "Sustainable Australia" party ..."rude and ridiculously self-important" - Mike Carlton (Twitter's most boring swearer) ... "eminently undesirable" - Van Badham ... "an eminent member of our society" - Rosemary Armitage MLC ... For a ridiculously old profile article that badly needs updating (including disclosure statement) see here.For email link click on profile.

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