Numbers noted here based in scrutineering are reports of unofficial sampling and are not results. For official results see the TEC website.
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Introduction
This is my general page for commentary on the 2026 Tasmanian council counts. Specific comments on individual councils will be added where time permits below (my main focus being on the Hobart count) and there will also be some comments on general themes. Don't expect to see much on this page on Tuesday; comments will be added on Wednesday especially on Wednesday night. I aim to cover all mayoral races at least to the extent of one line.
On Tuesday ballot papers will be removed from envelopes and there may be some computer data entry for some large councils but don't expect any official figures. I may have some indications from scrutineers depending on the pace of counting but the main counting activity for Mayors followed by Deputies together with the start of data entry is on Wednesday and first figures are expected by Wednesday night. The TEC expects to have at least provisional 20% distributions for all councils and 50% distributions for smaller councils at some stage on Wednesday evening. These provisional results are what would happen if only the votes entered to that point were used to decide the election. Usually most of the candidates who are provisionally elected at the 20% stage end up winning, but often some of those elected to the last few positions change. It is common to see media misreporting that candidates "elected" in these 20% and 50% interim counts have "won" but it is only when the final, 100%, count is done that the winners are official. Mayor counts will occur at least to the first primaries stage before the Deputy counts.
Where the final few seat results in the interim counts are within 100 votes or so (depending on council) then it's possible the winners will change by random sample error alone. They can also change if a candidate's victory depends on which of two other candidates is excluded at a certain point. But there is a more important reason why they can change, and it is this:
Stratification Alert!
It's very important to be aware that interim primary vote figures for the various Councils using automated data entry won't necessarily be unbiased samples of the whole count. Votes do not reach the Electoral Commission in random order, but rather arrive on particular days, and within each day's sample they may be further stratified by post office of origin (for instance). There will be political differences between the pool of voters who tend to vote early in the count and those who vote late in the count. Also, campaign events that happen during the postal voting period can have more impact during some parts of the count than others.
The TEC may well make vigorous efforts to reduce this stratification, but nothing will get rid of it completely. It's also hard to say how compulsory voting might affect it, since the pools of early and late voters will be different. In 2018 (optional voting) a "green shift" was observed in many (not all) councils, with obviously green/left candidates tending to get a final percentage that was around 1.1 times their vote in the first interim count, and righties tending to drop back accordingly. This wasn't noticeable however in 2022.
Hence when the TEC release primary figures for various percentages be aware that these are not true representative samples and that past experience shows that substantial changes may occur. (For instance in 2014 one candidate for one council who was not getting elected on the 20% sample was elected in third place, though that's an extreme example.) Any result that is even remotely close will therefore not be called on 20% of primaries.
Please note that I only "call" a seat when I consider it virtually certain that the candidate in question has won. I ask that people not describe me as having called any seat where I have not explicitly used the word "called" for it.
General Themes: Counting
Any general comments on counting will be added here.
General Themes: Results
The Turnout Is Fine: There were concerns about the turnout on Wednesday with turnout sitting in the low 70s but in fact that wasn't final. Turnout is now showing in the mid-80s, a substantial increase on 2022.
The Step Up: It's notable that where there is a Mayoral vacancy and the Deputy Mayor contests it, that Deputy Mayor is winning in several cases, often easily: Circular Head, George Town, Latrobe, Meander Valley and West Tamar
(Not So Much) Mayhem in The Southern Cities: The 20% distributions for councillor feature four incumbents losing in Hobart, three in Clarence, four in Glenorchy and three in Kingborough. Of course the reduction in council numbers without any reduction in recontesting councillors is triggering a lot of this, but it's impressive how many new candidates are disposing of incumbents even despite the shrinkage. On the 50% distribution however two of the previously losing Hobart incumbents, one in Clarence, and one in Kingborough were now provisionally retaining.
Specific Councils
Clarence
7:45 Wed: The 20% count has Mayor Brendan Blomeley easily topping the poll; I imagine this bodes well for his chances of retaining his position. Incumbents Allison Ritchie, Emma Goyne, Tony Mulder and Wendy Kennedy are all getting back but Heather Chong, James Walker and Daniel Hulme are all currently losing. New onto council would be the Greens Carly Allan and also Drew Jenner, Zac Morrisby and former state Franklin Liberal MP Dean Young. However Chong is only losing to Kennedy by 20 votes and Young by 14 so she could yet save at the expense of those two.
Thurs 11:40 Mayor papers were still being thrown recently so Clarence is some way behind the other big southern councils. First primaries are out and Blomeley has 24.1% from Jenner on 16.3% and Goyne on 14.3%. 24.1% isn't that much for an incumbent but it is a strong field; I don't know if there's any reason to expect there could be any life here.
1:40 Drew Jenner got an absolute stack out of Kerry Heatley and is now only 5% behind; I'll be keeping an eye on this one as Blomeley did not do well on those first two throws.
2:50 Blomeley (an ex Liberal whose party membership was deemed to have instantly ceased when he canvassed to the media that he might run in a state election as an indie) has gained a few hundred on the preferences of Young, a Liberal. Now another Liberal, Walker, but one with a very different Council voting pattern to the Mayor.
5:47 Down to four in the Mayor race (well three as Mulder is eliminated) and it's Blomeley 31.7 Jenner 27.6 Goyne 22.9 Mulder (excluded) 17.8. Blomeley still has a meaningful lead but hasn't put Jenner away yet and I doubt Mulder will be much use to him (they don't get on, though Mulder is pretty centrish politically these days).
8:10 MAYOR DEFEATED Drew Jenner defeats Blomeley from off council! After Tony Mulder's preferences actually slightly favoured Blomeley (which I doubt would amuse Mulder at all) Blomeley was 1586 ahead but got overrun by preferences from Emma Goyne splitting almost two to one (ignoring exhaust) against him. Wowee.
Drew Jenner's name is Andrew Jenner but he ran as Drew Jenner to avoid confusion with ex JLN MP Andrew Jenner, who also ran. Drew Jenner is an ex Peter George group candidate who was also endorsed by retiring Green Beth Warren so that's +1 for the greens/teals.
Thursday 9:29 Daniel Hulme - a former Labor MP - has made a great recovery from the 50% count dislodging Young from the winners list from the 20% count. What now happens is that Chong gets cut out (by over 100 so not that likely to change) and this benefits Hulme who in the end beats Walker by 117. This doesn't look that likely to change either.
A concession post from Blomeley has been interpreted by some as suggesting he might quit council.
Friday 11:00 No such problems for Allison Ritchie who has a 40% primary as Deputy in a field of five and a huge lead so I need not concern myself with that one.
Derwent Valley (done)
A close race for the Councillor final seat on the 20% count with #politas star and ex SF+F candidate Phillip Bigg currently missing out but just 6-7 votes behind two (!) others, including former Mayor and Derwent Liberal candidate Ben Shaw who served part of the last term on Sorell council. Incumbent and former state Liberal candidate Justin Derksen is currently losing his seat.
8:05 Wed: A very close Mayoral primary result with incumbent Michelle Dracoulis on 22.86%, former Lyons Labor state MP Casey Farrell leading on 24.94% and Neil Biggar on 19.85%. Julie Triffitt has 13.62, Jess Burns 12.1 and Wayne Shoobridge 6.64.
9:10 The 50% councillor count is already up and Bigg is now 30 behind Shaw and 50 behind Browning, so not so competitive but not yet out of it.
Thursday 10: After two exclusions Farrell is now nearly 5% ahead.
11: I can say that Farrell and Dracoulis are the final two.
11:35 Mayor Defeated: Dracoulis avoided exclusion before Biggar by 50 votes but with Farrell leading by nearly 10% Casey Farrell will be the new Mayor of Derwent Valley. (Update, big win for Farrell, 60-40ish)
Friday 7:35 Councillor count finished. Former Mayor Ben Shaw - who was on Sorell council for part of the previous term - is back as the last elected, defeated Bigg by just 12.34 votes.
Devonport
Alison Jarman easily retains mayoralty winning her rematch with former Mayor and Senator Steve Martin close to 65-35
Thursday: It is notable that former JLN MP Miriam Beswick is not even getting onto council at this rate.
Dorset (done)
Mayor Rhys Beattie has been easily re-elected with over 70%.
Flinders Island (done)
Mayor Rachel Summers has been easily re-elected with 74%.
George Town (done)
Deputy Mayor Greg Dawson leads ex JLN candidate Angela Armstrong by 4.2% for the vacant mayoralty with over 30% from Jason Orr to throw.
8:10 New Mayor: Greg Dawson elected.
Sunday: A very close one for Deputy, Winston Mason over Thomas Gunn by 20 votes.
Glamorgan-Spring Bay (done)
No mayor figures yet but Greg Raspin is dominating the 50% councillor count. This could make life difficult for incumbent Cheryl Arnol on the mayor count. There's a reasonably close race for the last council spot with Pam Sharpe currently 28 ahead, and Michael Symons currently 19 ahead, of Jenny Walker at the point where Walker provisionally drops out.
Thursday night, yep, mayor defeated: Raspin defeats Arnol with 58.7% after preferences.
Friday: Final - it was close but Sharpe defeated Walker for the final seat by 15.35 votes.
Sunday: The Deputy result is of some interest, Michael Symons who won easily last time was dumped in third and the new winner is a climate/environment independent Dr Elizabeth Grey. Symons did however keep his council seat.
Glenorchy
Sue Hickey has nearly 50% of mayor primaries and has clearly been re-elected.
In the 20% count incumbents Shane Alderton, Justin Stringer, Peter Ridler and veteran Steve King (the first two elected on recounts or by-elections) are all losing with only Sue Hickey, Russel Yaxley and Stuart Slade winning. Slade over King is 43 votes so might change. It looks very much like Lachlan McCarthy, the Greens' Nathan Volf, Mala Crew and former Liberal candidate Marilena Di Florio will be coming on to council and for your free entertainment Kelly Sims will be back from contentiously forfeiting her seat in the previous term.
Thursday 12:40 Hickey is finally over the line as Mayor, I expect the Deputy count to start soon if it hasn't already.
2:10 The Deputy count is underway and a more even spread of papers I have rarely seen. The primary leaders may be in some order Sims, McCarthy and Di Florio but Slade and Clark are also thereabouts. This will be a very long distribution. I'm scrutineering this but having no idea who the final 2, 3, 4 etc makes it hard to know who to sample!
3:40 Sims will lead Deputy on primaries, narrowly - I have her on about 2667, McCarthy 2464, Di Florio 2300 as the leaders. Some might wonder why McCarthy is not leading when he's bolting in as councillor - the answer is that if someone voted for Hickey then Sims or Di Florio as councillor then some of that vote was used electing Hickey. But Sims and Di Florio are getting these voters' votes at full value for Deputy. Not as many voters voted Hickey-McCarthy.
4:30 Those were not all the primaries; a smaller batch (about 7000 to the previous 20000) is being added now, which I don't think is changing the picture much.
5:00 In anticipation of the final three being as above (though that could be wrong) I did a sample of 3CP preferences of Alderton, Clark, Slade and Stringer (why these? Because they're at the end of the table hence easier). Sims (44) got slightly more of these than Di Florio (38) and both had a lot more than McCarthy (21). Also plenty of exhaust. Small sample (125) but interesting.
7:45 The final primaries won't be posted tonight because of a minor balancing issue but I am expecting the leaders to look something like Sims 3628 McCarthy 3309 Di Florio 3046 Clark 2765 Slade 2219 King 2140 and the others not all of whom I got between 1000 and 2000. Nobody has 15% and it's just a long long cutup all the way to the flag.
9:05 The 50% councillor count is up and the provisional winners are the same but Slade over King is down to 30 votes and if I recall correctly King has got out of this hole before. The remaining councillors appear settled.
Friday 12:15: the final Deputy primaries are taking a long time to appear because the bottom three candidates are very close together and the TEC needs to be very sure it has the primary numbers right before excluding anyone.
12:30 We're on to exclusions starting with Marks so I expect the primaries will be posted soon. The preferences aren't doing much and my samples of the preferences of the preferences aren't doing much, it is turtles all the way down. Sims and Clark probably doing best on this throw.
12:40 Yep Clark and Sims the biggest gainers on this one with about 134 each.
1:50 I'm expecting this count could go into tomorrow but we'll see. Kernke is out with McCarthy making a slight gain on Sims and Di Florio not getting much on either exclusion so far. Green out now.
2:15 Green preferences not doing much. (Very little change between the top three.)
3:50 Rahat preferences not doing much either.
5:10 McCarthy has gained 63 on Sims off Alderton (Di Florio has also gained 5). With six candidates left Sims is about 325 up on McCarthy and close to 700 up on Di Florio.
Saturday 10:30 Update I thought I did last night where I mentioned this contest is IND vs Lib vs ALP (both the latter not officially endorsed) went missing somehow. Anyway McCarthy ran as a very obviously Labor candidate (several ALP member candidates around the state have run in Labor red despite the party not endorsing anyone) and was personally endorsed by Josh Willie. Sims has just gained 50 on both opponents off the preferences of Stuart Slade. Next King, this is the last chance for the bloke vote to show any muscle it may have as after that McCarthy is the only guy left in this count. This isn't Hobart, indeed Glenorchy seems to have returned a majority female council.
11:00 Sims gains on McCarthy off King as well! There must actually be a chance now that Di Florio knocks McCarthy out (she needs to beat him by 541 off Kate Clark's 5186) and leaves the final two as Sims vs Di Florio. In either case unles Di Florio gets a really massive share off Clark and goes to the lead, for Sims to lose a major party candidate's voters will have to choose the other major party over her.
3:40 Sims wins easily! Non-exhausting Di Florio preferences split 62.8% to Sims and she wins with 55.76% 2CP. That 12-candidate epic is the last of the leadership counts that was still going in the state.
Huon Valley (done)
Mark Jessop very narrowly leads Labor Huon candidate Abby McKibben for the vacant mayoralty.
8:10 Wed: Jessop leads McKibben by 2.53% with a massive 26.87% from the Greens' Paul Gibson to throw. Interesting to see what happens with this distribution. Both the Mayor and Deputy retired at this election.
Thursday 10:00 New Mayor: Wow that was a close one! McKibben got up on Greens preferences by 39 votes!
Saturday 11:20: Councillor count done. Former JLN candidate Marshall Callaghan is elected to council after leading on the early distributions then missing on the final count in 2022.
Sunday: Noticed that Debbie Armstrong, a relative of former MLC Robert Armstrong who ran against him for the position, has won Deputy Mayor.
Kentish (done)
No mayor ballot, Kate Haberle re-elected unopposed
King Island (done)
New mayor: and another win for Liberal aligned women in the north, Sarina Laidler wins vacant mayoralty easily after controversially forfeiting her seat then winning her own by-election in the previous term.
Kingborough (done)
In the 20% councillor count, Will Perry tops the poll from former state Liberal candidate Aldo Antolli and returning ex-Deputy Jo Westwood. Incumbent veteran Flora Fox and Deputy Mayor Christian Street are currently provisionally losing their seats as is Mark Richardson. On to council would come Teisha Archer, Kim Phillips and Andrew Kerr. The margins are pretty substantial for a 20% count so it will be interesting to see if anything changes.
New Mayor: In the mayoral ballot Westwood is leading Aldo Antolli 43.33-38.58 with the Greens' Gideon Cordover on 18.09%. Given what Greens voters think of Antolli, Westwood will be elected.
Thursday 3:35 I omitted to mention earlier that it was obvious from the size of the piles within a minute that Will Perry was winning Deputy from off council. Perry has an enormous primary of nearly 40% and none of the other six candidates including three incumbents has anything much.
Thursday evening: In the 50% count Street now wins instead of Kerr, and Fox is also closer to retaining. Street wins by 68 votes, which might stand. It's close between Kerr and Fox as to which goes out first but I don't know if the order matters
Friday 11:00 Perry has won deputy with a majority at the three candidate point saving the TEC from doing a final exclusion.
Saturday night: Councillor count done and Flora Fox finished 10th but has been defeated (for now, there's always recounts!) after 38 years on Council. I understand she's the longest serving Kingborough councillor ever and the longest serving Tasmanian female councillor.
Latrobe (done)
New Mayor: Deputy Mayor and recent Liberal candidate Vonette Mead has easily won the vacant mayoralty with 53% in a field of four, defeating former Braddon federal Liberal MP Brett Whiteley.
Thursday 11:50: In the 30% councillor count (that's a thing) serial council antagonist and former JLN candidate James Redgrave is the highest loser. The margins are pretty large in that so the town has no need to feel nervous. I suspect everyone's noticed by now that my posts are mostly stolen song lyrics.
Saturday: Redgrave just over 100 behind in the 60% count.
Sunday: Latrobe avoids being under the Redgrave sky by 170 votes.
Launceston
I've heard that Matthew Garwood is very easily retaining as Mayor. (Update: yep, he got a massive 48.3% in a field of 8 and is currently on 49.99% in the cutup awating another three votes.)
7:30 Garwood has a mere three quotas if you don't mind as councillor on the 20% count. The recontesting councillors are all winning handily except for Alan Harris who is currently missing out, but is only a few dozen votes behind some candidates who are winning at this point, so this may not be the end of it just yet. (I haven't looked at the preference dynamics). On to council but down the elected list would come mayoral challengers Kyle Barrett and Rose Diamond, Labor state candidate Melissa Anderson and former Examiner editor and journalist (later DPAC staffer) Martin Gilmour.
Thursday night: In the 50% count Alex Britton is now winning instead of Gilmour. The final seat margin for Anderson over Gilmour is 49 votes which is within the range of results that can change.
Friday 11:00 Suzie Cai has a lead of a few points over Joe Pentridge and Andrew Palmer in the Deputy race. Her remaining four opponents are all blokes so we'll see if this could be a problem.
Friday night: Nup! Andrew Palmer was the primary vote leader (narrowly) but Cai after taking the lead on the first exclusion was never headed. Cai wins by 1589.
Meander Valley
New Mayor: Deputy Mayor and state Liberal candidate Stephanie Cameron has had a monster win for the vacant mayoralty with 64% in a field of three.
Northern Midlands
Paul Terrett has a narrow primary lead over Alison Andrews for the vacant mayoralty. The Mayor and Deputy both retired in this council.
8:50 Andrews now leads by 58 votes with the preferences of Adam Barnett to decide the winner tomorrow.
Thursday 1:00 New Mayor: Andrews has won a very close race by 69 votes.
Sorell (done)
In the 20% councillor count, replacement councillor Beth Nichols is provisionally out with mayoral challenger Kristian Horvath and Jon Daly in.
Thurs 1:00 Janet Gatehouse re-elected mayor comfortably, almost 60-40. Not surprising given the councillor count and the number of councillors whose support bases would likely be closer to Gatehouse than Horvath.
Friday: the final council is as expected from the 20% count, and clearcut in margins terms.
Southern Midlands (done)
Mayor Edwin Batt has been very easily re-elected with 58% in a field of three
Tasman (done)
Mayor Rod Macdonald has been easily re-elected beating former Mayor Kelly Spaulding 60-40.
Waratah-Wynyard (done)
Wed 9:00 Waratah-Wynyard mayoralty is vacant and off-council candidate Chloe Foster has a lead approaching 20% over Michael Johnstone and should be the new mayor easily.
Thursday 11:45 New Mayor: Foster elected easily, over 60-40.
West Coast (done)
9:00 Wed: Mayor Shane Pitt has a fight on his hands; he's trailing Lindsay Newman by nearly 10 points, needing a nearly 2-1 flow off Liz Hamer to retain.
Thursday: Mayor Defeated: Newman wins easily
West Tamar
The vacant mayoralty will be won by Rick Shegog or state Nationals candidate Carl Cooper, with Shegog 6.2% up on primaries. (My commiserations to the whole of southern Trevallyn on the lack of a left candidates in this field.)
9:15 New Mayor: Shegog narrowly wins 51.8-48.2.
There is an amazingly colourful cast of provisional losers in the 20% distribution including SF+F state candidate Michael Frydrych who nearly won a seat in Bass last year, serial candidate Sven "Turtle" Wiener, former Greens candidate then independent Jack Davenport, former Labor candidate Will Gordon who "withdrew" after ballot papers were printed, Mayoral candidate and One Nation member Josh Manticas, recent Greens candidate Charlene McLennan, and incumbent councillor thanks to one of the more insane recount outcomes ever Caroline Larner (a frequent Australian Citizens (ex-CEC) candidate somehow elected on Jess Greene (Labor)'s recount). Julie Sladden (controversial state Liberal candidate, culture warrior and COVID vaccine opponent) however is on course for comfortable re-election after being elected extremely narrowly last time.
Thursday night: All the above mentioned are still losing in the 50% count.
Friday: Sladden elected Deputy Mayor After a very narrow win as Councillor in 2022, Sladden has gone up one rung beating Joy Allen 50.62-49.38 (166 vote margin). Allen, who declared to Tasmanian Times that she is a Liberal Party member, also lost narrowly to Jess Greene (now a state Labor MP) last time.
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