ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS
CLARK (2024 Result 2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 Green 1 IND)
SEATS WON (CALLED) 2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 Green 1 IND
SEAT WINNERS: Kristie Johnston (IND), Ella Haddad (ALP), Josh Willie (ALP), Vica Bayley (GRN), Helen Burnet (GRN), Marcus Vermey (Lib), Madeleine Ogilvie (Lib)
(Ogilvie defeats Simon Behrakis (Lib) in close intra-party battle)
After deciding the government in 2021 and delivering two Greens for the first time ever in 2024, Clark doesn't have so much excitement in 2025. Two Greens elected comfortably? Seen that before! Indie tops the poll? It is Clark after all. John Macgowan doesn't even get 666 votes? It is Clark after all.
What we do have however is a cage match between Sandy Bay butcher Marcus Vermey (about whose position on the Liberal spectrum I still know nothing after three elections covering) and incumbents Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie (long ago a Labor MP for the seat). This is a repeat of the 2024 intra-Liberal contest in Clark but in that case Vermey was too far back. This time he's in the lead.
Kristie Johnston has as mentioned topped the poll with 1.20 quotas. She and Peter George are the first non-proto-Green independents to top the poll in a seat since Reg Turnbull in Bass 1959. The Liberals have 2.46 quotas, Labor 2.21, the Greens 1.75 and ex-Liberal independent Elise Archer 0.25.
In theory the evenish split between Vermey, Ogilvie and Behrakis might give them chances of staying over one of the two Greens but the two Greens have a good split too. At candidate level Helen Burnet (second Green) leads Ogilvie by 217 with about the same number of votes to distribute within each of the tickets. The Greens prefs should be slightly leakier but the Liberal preferences are splitting three ways while the Greens preferences are only splitting between two candidates. Furthermore there are 2417 surplus Johnston and Labor votes that will favour the Greens (to the extent they don't exhaust) and I have heard that Archer's preferences are splitting pretty evenly on a 2PP basis between the majors, so they won't greatly help the Liberals. And there's little reason why they should, since Archer ran against the stadium. Also there are a couple of ungrouped INDs whose preferences will help the Greens.
Therefore it comes down to, at present, Vermey 4629 Behrakis 4180 Ogilvie 3510. In 2024 all these stayed in the count til the end and Ogilvie gained 2598, Behrakis 2406 and Vermey 2029, so Ogilvie needs to do better on preferences to overtake at least Behrakis. What was notable in the 2024 count, however, was gender-based preferencing. Ogilvie made substantial gains when two female Liberal candidates were excluded and also on the preferences of ex-Liberal independent Sue Hickey. Behrakis made his largest gain vs Ogilvie on the preferences of a male Liberal, Jon Gourlay, though he didn't gain from the other male Liberal.
In this election there is another ex-Liberal female independent in Elise Archer, and also within the Liberal ticket there are more votes for minor female candidates (2010) than minor male candidates (1343). This was not the case in 2024. Kristie Johnston having surplus probably won't help Ogilvie much as almost none of it will go to the Liberals.
670 votes is 670 votes though, it's quite a large lead for one of these things, and I am highly doubtful that the differences between this cutup and 2024 are worth nearly 500 votes more of Ogilvie gain. Indeed, Archer has fewer votes than Hickey had last time. I find it extremely hard to see how Vermey could be passed by both rivals and I think Behrakis is a strong favourite to stay above Ogilvie.
Monday 21st: Behrakis has increased his lead to 733 votes.
Tuesday 22nd: I have heard of some scrutineering sampling that has Ogilvie catching Behrakis off other Liberals at a rate that would make her competitive. I'm intending to do some of my own tomorrow.
Wednesday 23rd: Total I scrutineered a sample of 191 minor Liberal votes (it takes a lot of hanging around to see them!) and after reweighting the flow came out at Vermey 30.8% Ogilvie 35.4% Behrakis 27.0% and a rather low 6.8% leaked. On that basis off the Monday primaries Ogilvie would reduce the gap on Liberal preferences by about 288 votes. Liberal scrutineers have what I expect are larger samples. I expect updated totals soon in which the primary gap is likely to close, partly off Ogilvie doing better on out of electorate votes (I was too busy to remember to check by how much!) and partly because there's a 50-vote bundle to be corrected from Behrakis to Di Florio. From what I saw Ogilvie shouldn't be expecting to gain much off anybody outside the party. In particular, Elise Archer's votes mostly don't flow to the Liberals at all. I have now called Vermey in because there is clearly no way they will both pass him, indeed I'll be surprised if either does. [Update: Behrakis still leads by 713 after today's counting which seems reasonably comfortable, on projection still over 400 after Liberal preferences.]
For interest I also did some 2PP scrutineering of 265 Greens votes with a result of Labor 54.9% Liberal 4.2% exhaust 40.9%.
Tuesday 29th: What to watch for: Awaiting final primaries (most recently the gap between Behrakis and Ogilvie had come down slightly to 668). The main issue here is how votes split whenever a Liberal candidate is excluded. The first excluded candidate will be David Wan who will be out relatively early (perhaps tomorrow). Most of the other surpluses and exclusions won't make much difference here though there will be a substantial preference source when Labor's 3rd candidate exits.
2:00: The final primary gap was 670. Kristie Johnston's surplus has been thrown with these going 659 to Greens, 451 to Archer, 294 to Labor, 113 to ungrouped and 92 to Liberals. Ogilvie gained 14 on Behrakis and trails by 656. The next act is the exclusion of John Macgowan.
2:20 Macgowan is excluded with 59% staying in the ungrouped column, Behrakis leads by 660.
2:36 Goldsmith gone, gap 665.
3:25 Greens candidates Caruana and Templeton have been excluded with leaks of 8% and 11.5% out of the Greens ticket respectively (leaks in Clark are often lower than elsewhere). These two made no difference to the Behrakis/Ogilvie contest, indeed Caruana contributed zero to both candidates.
4:40 First Labor exclusion done (Shirley) and Behrakis gained five and led by 670 again, so no pattern on leakage so far. Followed by the first Liberal exclusion (David Wan) and here Ogilvie has gained 21 but still trails by 649.
5:35 End of play for Tuesday and Behrakis still leads by 644. The first exclusion tomorrow is Phipps who is the final ungrouped candidate; I would expect a lot of these will go to the Greens and Archer. This should be followed by Johnstone (Lib).
Wednesday 30th 9:50 Phipps excluded and gap closed by one. Johnstone now excluded, this is the second of the four Liberal exclusions and the one Behrakis is most likely to gain on.
10:40 But he didn't! Ogilvie gained substantially off Johnstone and is now only 530 behind.
11:21 Peter Jones (Green) excluded. Somehow Behrakis has gained ten on Ogilvie off those! Lead is 540.
12:25 Tessa McLaughlin (ALP) excluded, Ogilvie a net gain of two. Now the third Liberal exclusion, Jessica Barnett - Ogilvie needs a big break on these.
1:15 Still waiting for official figures but have heard that Ogilvie is about to make a massive gain off Barnett. Yep, massive narrowing in Clark, the gap is 86. Indications are that Di Florio's votes are not going to do the same thing but it could be close enough that it comes down to Archer!
2:13 I understand that Behrakis' lead is going to increase very slightly off this exclusion but that the gap will be close enough for this to still be in play off the remaining Labor ticket and Archer votes. (And let's not forget leakage from Shelley)
2:41 Yep, the gap is 108. Next out is Janet Shelley (GRN). Vica Bayley needs 35.3% of these to cross on this count (I expect them to favour Helen Burnet, but probably not enough to stop Bayley crossing).
4:25 Bayley missed quota by 3, so now Kamara (ALP) is thrown which will elect Bayley . Only three candidates and some surpluses to throw, Clark should finish tomorrow.
5:02 Hare-Clark history as Bayley crosses the line on leakage from Kamara - the first time ever that non-major party candidates have been elected 1 and 2 in a division. Behrakis gained eight on the first part of Kamara's preferences and leads by 116.
5:40 Stumps day 2. Behrakis leads by 117. The count will be concluded by:
* Vica Bayley's surplus of 124 votes off Kamara
* Luke Martin's 3113 votes plus whatever he gets off Bayley's surplus.
* Martin's votes will elect both Ella Haddad and Josh Willie with surpluses.
* Those two surpluses, with votes able to go only now to the Liberals, Archer and Helen Burnet
* Archer's 3422 votes plus whatever she gets by this stage
* Probably a small surplus from Burnet (if not on Labor then from Archer)
And all that will decide the last seat between Ogilvie and Behrakis! Obviously the Archer bundle is the big deal here. Most Labor votes will exhaust or flow to the Greens. Something important here is that a lot of Archer's votes here aren't her own, there are a lot that have pooled with her from Johnston, the ungrouped column and leakage. These may favour Ogilvie who is generally seen as more moderate, not to mention any gender component of Johnston-Archer votes.
Overnight: Ogilvie Chases History: Cases of candidates winning intra-party battles in Hare-Clark by overtaking candidates from the same party are common. Since Robson Rotation in 1980 reduced ballot order effects as a cause of this happening, there have been eighteen such cases, including three where two candidates overtook a third who was leading them, and one where one candidate overtook two. However, these are usually off small primary vote margins (in two thirds of cases 200 votes or less). If Ogilvie wins from 670 behind that will be the fourth biggest of these comebacks, and the largest one to owe its existence mostly to within-party excluded candidate preferences (on which she gained by 560). The three ahead of her in this period are:
- Roger Jaensch (and Adam Brooks) over Felix Ellis Braddon 2021 (1394 votes) - on massive Jeremy Rockliff surplus
- Judy Jackson over David Bartlett (and James Crotty) Denison 2002 (1003 votes) - on massive Jim Bacon surplus
- Andrew Lohrey over Terry Aulich Wilmot 1982 (896 votes) - mostly on Democrat preferences as a result of Lohrey's dissenting position on the Gordon below Franklin dam.
Thursday 31st 9:40: Bayley's surplus is done. Behrakis leads by 118. Burnet is 893 short of quota. On to Martin's first throw. Most of this is going to elect the other two ALP candidates and then their surpluses will have more impact (or not) as votes leave the Labor ticket.
10:45: I blinked and they are going very fast here! Willie and Haddad are elected and Haddad's surplus has been thrown. Behrakis' lead is down to 90, this is looking hard to hold on.
11:20: Just 83 votes now and on to Elise Archer's 3695. They will throw these in a few different lots, firstly her primary value votes which will be a few thousand of them, to see if they put anyone (possibly Burnet) over quota. Burnet needs 536. If nobody crosses, they go on to the smaller lots from the four surpluses so far, which could mean the result all appears in one go.
12:30 OGILVIE LEADS. Ogilvie is 70 ahead with only 662 Archer votes to go from surpluses and a 400 vote surplus for Burnet off Archer. Oh by the way Burnet has been elected.
1:30 Ogilvie 157 ahead and has clearly won, only 400 from Burnet via Archer to go. However because too many Clark counts are never enough, Marcus Vermey can get quota for which he needs 31 votes. Then he too will have a surplus!
This is the fifth close intra-party contest Ogilvie has been in and she is now 4 and 1. She won against Julian Amos (ALP, 2014), Tim Cox (ALP, 2019 recount), Simon Behrakis (2021) and Behrakis now again (2025) losing only to Ella Haddad (ALP, 2018).
2:48 Vermey does get quota, his 40 vote surplus is too small mathematically to affect the outcome but is thrown anyway for potential future "recount" (IE countback) purposes. The end of the Clark count is nigh
3:09 And all over ... Ogilvie comes from 670 behind to win by 180, I thought that was rather unlikely but it has happened.
Friday August 1st 2:15 I've been estimating a final margin for the Greens over the three Liberals and I find that a swing of 1168 votes (1.82%) from Burnet to the Liberals spread equally with no further leakage would have resulted in the Liberals getting the final seat.
I'm relieved you don't think there is much chance of the three Liberals beating Burnett, but I'm still anxious. One of the reasons you give is that preferences from Johnston and Labor will favor the Greens. While I imagine this will be the case for Johnston, I'm not so sure for Labor, and am wondering if that might change the situation.
ReplyDeleteMy reasoning is this: The Labor preferences distributed will be from the last of their candidates to be eliminated, which will be either Kamara or Martin. Kamara's preferences may be relatively standard Labor ones, but surely anyone who voted Martin would be very unlikely to preference the Greens? Of course the votes distributed will not just be Martin's primaries, but also those he acquired from various other places, which would probably be more Green-friendly. Still, if the bulk of the distribution is his primaries, I'd have thought that would be quite a-typical.
My feeling is that out of all the voters for Martin the share of them voting for him because they hate the Greens and want to support Big Salmon Guy is relatively low. Some will just be people who remember him from Glenorchy council politics. Half the ALP preferences whoever it is will typically exhaust anyway; I think the Johnston prefs will have more impact.
ReplyDeleteThank you. That is encouraging to hear. I hope Johnston preferences etc will mean it won't be an issue anyway.
ReplyDeleteWhich party supporters has the highest exhaust rate for preferences
ReplyDeleteI haven't scrutineered for this year specifically but historically it's the majors, common to see about 50% exhaust near end of count.
Deletewhat odds both Libs leapfrogging Burnett from Archer prefs?
ReplyDeleteWill not occur. Too many will exhaust. Archer ran as an anti-stadium moderate, a lot of her votes (close to half of which won't be 1 Archer) aren't even hitting the Liberal column.
DeleteSome questions about TEC procedures. When they carve up a candidate whose votes have come from different sources, which bundle do they start with? Is it always the candidate's primaries? Do the bundles follow the order in which they accrued? And when another candidate is declared elected part way through the carve up of an excluded candidate, does the count continue to add votes to the elected member right to the end of the excluded candidate's votes, even when it means moving on to a whole lot of bundles of votes from different sources? What happens when a candidate is elected with a tiny surplus, eg 2? Is that surplus distributed despite the infinitesimal transfer value? I presume the answers to these questions are written down somewhere in the bowels of the TEC website.
ReplyDeleteThe bundles are amalgamated by transfer value. So the first lot thrown is all a candidate's full-value votes, whether they were primary votes for that candidate or not. Once those are thrown, if another candidate has passed quota, then no further votes are added to that candidate.
DeleteAs for a surplus of 2 (as happened this year in Franklin with Eric Abetz and in Bass with Michael Ferguson), the ballot papers that made up the surplus continue to be distributed. But because their transfer value is so low and because Tasmania rounds to whole vote values, they never end up being worth anything to anyone; on the first throw of that surplus their value goes to loss due to fractions. It's in theory possible for enough of those ballots to recombine later in the count that somebody might gain 1 vote, but in practice it won't happen in either of these cases.