Legislative Council 2023: Launceston

This is my guide for the May 6 elections for the Legislative Council seats of Launceston and Murchison.  On Wednesday I released a survey of the Council's recent voting patterns.  Yesterday I released a guide for Rumney and a guide to Murchison is also up. There will be live coverage on the night of May 6th.  

The Legislative Council currently stands at four Liberal, four Labor and seven independents.  Three of the independents are conservative, three are well to the left of Labor and one (Ruth Forrest) has moved from the left to the centre in recent years.  While the Liberal Government therefore has a relatively easy time of it and wins the majority of contested votes, it still needs to convince someone from the left or centre to support it on major legislation. 

Seat Profile

Perhaps not the Redistribution Tribunal's most intuitive work, the current version of Launceston includes central Launceston and most of southern Launceston, the outer suburb of Prospect Vale (which is in the Meander Valley council area for reasons entirely beyond my comprehension), the historic town of Hadspen and some sparsely populated bits between Launceston and Perth and Evandale (see map).  

Launceston has been held by both major parties in the distant past but was held by independent Don Wing for 29 years ending 2011.  (Wing's name appears very prominently as authoriser on his successor's signs.)  Major party attempts to dislodge him failed miserably, neither major could get close when he retired, and Labor ran a distant third in 2017.  This means Launceston is one of the few LegCo seats where it is not possible to give a credible left-right two-side preferred figure based on any recent election.

Launceston has long been a conservative seat.  In the 2021 state election it was also gripped by Papimania and voted Liberal 60.4% Labor 25.6% Greens 10.1%.  

Incumbent

Rosemary Armitage (Facebook, linkedin, Youtube, Instagram) is the incumbent Independent and is seeking a third term.  Prior to winning this seat Armitage was a Launceston councillor and one-term Deputy Mayor before an epic contest for the Mayoralty with Albert van Zetten in 2009.  After various rechecks van Zetten won by three votes and went on to serve for thirteen years,  Armitage ran for the Legislative Council vacancy 2011 and convincingly beat the Liberals' Sam McQuestin with 56.2% after preferences after trailing narrowly on primaries.  At the end of her first term Armitage faced a serious challenge from high-profile health and nursing advocate Neroli Ellis (also running as an independent) but prevailed with 52.16% after preferences.

My assessments have usually found Armitage to be somewhere from centre to right in the Legislative Council spectrum with an average assessment of centre-right, but she is far from a reliable vote for the government, especially on major issues.  In the last four years my current piece finds she has voted with the Liberals on 68% of contested divisions in my sample, and with Labor 51% of the time.  

Armitage is generally community-focused and uncontroversial.  In 2016 McQuestin unconvincingly attempted to partly blame her for the Liberals' loss of Bass at that year's federal election.

Challenger

I thought there might be more interest in this one after a relatively close race last time but no.

Cecily Rosol (Facebook, linkedin) is the endorsed Tasmanian Greens candidate for Launceston.  Rosol is a counsellor under the business name Thrive Launceston, and a foster carer and registered nurse.  She has also in the past been a school chaplain.  

Rosol was a minor Greens candidate for Bass at the 2021 state election polling 691 votes.  She was then the party's candidate at the 2022 federal election, polling 11.1%.  She was the Greens candidate for Launceston City Council in 2022 but finished 13th in the race for 12 seats and missed out (a couple of former Greens were elected as independents in what was otherwise a disaster race for the left).

Campaign

There may not be a lot to mention here but Rosol has been active since at least mid-March with signs, doorknocking and saying the sorts of things one would expect a Green to say.  Armitage has been prolific with social media updates of news and community activities.

In late March Armitage introduced a successful motion to encourage the State Government to require all state MPs and local councillors to maintain a Working With Vulnerable People card.  This is interesting in that two weeks later it was revealed that the card held by the Launceston Mayor Danny Gibson (for reasons unconnected with local government) is suspended while under review for reasons that are currently mysterious.  However I've been advised that the timing was pure coincidence.  

In comments about local government reform Armitage has supported reducing the number of Tasmanian councils but has also supported wards to retain local representation.  

Prospects

Rosemary Armitage will be re-elected easily.  

Launceston is mostly not fertile ground for the Greens and Rosol was not a high enough profile candidate to win a seat on Launceston Council in her own right.  

On past experience of such contests I expect Armitage to get at least 70%, and perhaps around high 70s (low or even mid 80s would not be surprising either).