Vacancy for resignation of Alan Tudge (Liberal)
Roshena Campbell (Liberal) vs Mary Doyle (Labor)
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Wednesday: Currently 53.62 to Labor. Thought I'd throw in some stats I think are interesting. Firstly Aston was one of only two seats that recorded 2PP swings to the Coalition in both the 2016 election and the 2019 election, the other being Petrie. There were 18 seats that swung to Coalition in 2016, generally inner-city seats where Malcolm Turnbull was popular and the 2016 campaign resonated, but 16 of them swung to Labor in 2019. This might all be about the personal votes of Alan Tudge and Luke Howarth, but I think it more likely speaks to both seats' status as hybrid in character between inner city and outer city seats, which makes losing the seat even more unfortunate.
Secondly Labor's victory margin in Aston will exceed the margin that the Liberal Party had before the by-election. This as concerns major parties (ignoring crossbench wins) is very unusual, with only Bass 1975 and Lowe 1982 being clear examples of the same in the last 100 years; Parkes 1931 may have been another if thrown to completion. (There are four arguable examples in the first 20 years of Federation but those all get asterisks for one or more of the original election being voided, first past the post, or there being three major parties at the time.)
Sunday: The margin is trivial compared to the result but in any case a large number of postals have broken very weakly to Campbell so far and Doyle's 2PP is 53.58%. There are a few thousand postals to go plus some provisionals and a few other votes but I expect very minor movement from here onwards. There is also no doubt I can see now that Labor will win the primary vote, for what that's worth.
End of night wrap:
For the second time since Federation and the first time in 103 years, a federal government has claimed a seat from an opposition at a by-election. And the last time it happened, the government kinda cheated. It was always on the cards that someday a government would gain a seat again, given that opposition seats on average swing only weakly to oppositions, and that swings are variable. It just somehow kept not quite happening, with Eden-Monaro in 2020 one very narrow escape. But it's not entirely for want of trying either - although governments recently have been taciturn about contesting opposition vacancies, the Hawke government (five times) and Rudd's (once) could not pull by-election swings while polling as well as this one. Overall the result confirms that governments that are polling well have some tendency to do better in such by-elections, but that relationship is not that strong.
While I suggested that a loss was not necessarily a disaster (by-elections have little predictive value for the next election) the scale of the loss was hardly expected by anyone and will make for a bruising time for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. The last Coalition leader to lose a by-election, Brendan Nelson (Lyne 2008 to independent Rob Oakeshott) was gone within two weeks. In Dutton's favour, there is no obvious contender yet, and there is blame to go around after the state party descended into farce when trying to discipline a member (Moira Deeming) who should never have been preselected in the first place. There will be much said about the party's general policy direction and attitude and the wisdom of preselecting candidates from way outside electorates may also attract more attention. Liberals are blaming Labor for negative campaigning but I don't think Labor's messaging was all that potent verbally. The concern is if just showing Peter Dutton's picture is enough.
Labor now has a majority of five seats, up from three (78-73=5), and while that may not sound like much it's the largest majority since the parliament was dissolved for the 2016 election. This will make Labor's life easier on the floor in the rare cases that everyone else votes against it, as its floor majority rises from two to four.
10:03 This isn't just a historic loss, it is a drubbing; Doyle ends the night with 54.27% 2PP. The AEC projects this to come down to 53.98%; my projection is 53.5 given the lack of absents but it doesn't matter what it is really. Congrats to the 7 out of 312 voters in the Not-A-Poll who I believe correctly tipped that the Liberal 2PP would round down to 46 or less, though there is still some chance of it sneaking above 47.
9:50 If anything, it's getting worse.
9:05 The prepolls are all in and nothing has changed.
8:53 Roshena Campbell has conceded.
8:08 Report that there is a swing to Labor in the Boronia prepoll.
7:56 Only waiting for two ordinary booths and two hospital booths, there will also be three prepoll booths and some postals (not sure how many we will get tonight)
7:50 As Antony Green notes the swing is remaining very sticky. With 29 booths in on primaries and 14 on 2PP my projection is still 53.4.
7:42 My projection for Labor (which is adjusted by removing absents from the 2022 result entirely) has dropped a little, down to 53.2. That may still be a little high as I expect the preference flow to weaken.
7:40 Report that postals are not helping the Liberals. Unlike NSW we will not be seeing a great increase in the prepoll tally with the potential for a great change in voting patterns.
7:34 Nineteen booths in on primaries and my projection is still running in the upper 53s! Not saying the Liberals cannot get this back but it will at least be work and probably a close enough result for Labor to get bragging rights if they do.
7:30 Ferntree Gully booths continuing to swamp the preference count but the challenge for Campbell so far is the primary. 3.4% swing against is not good enough and the Liberals need to lift.
7:23 Labor's preference share has shot up to 67% but that is because the unrepresentative Upper Ferntree Gully booth, known to be infested with Bob Brown worshippers, has been added to the count early. It may subside a little bit.
7:21 Seven booths in on primaries and based on the overall swing and preference share from the first booth Labor would be on for about 52-48 (but I suspect the preference share in the other booths counted will be higher). We know from NSW last week not to get too carried away about projections off booth swings.
7:17 2PP swing in Rowville East was 0.8% to Labor. Labor got 58% of preferences there.
7:13 Three booths in and the AEC swing (which is booth-matched) is running at 3.9% against the Liberals and 9.5% to Doyle. This is a great start for Labor as that would project to primaries of about 42-39 in their favour, though I would knock a bit off that because by-elections don't have absents. Still very early but if Labor are even close to even on primaries at the end of the count then they are likely to win, at least assuming the flow from Tesa to Liberals is not terribly strong.
7:07 A second booth now in at Wantirna South and a thumping swing to Labor in that one (still waiting for exact figures).
6:58 The first booth in is Rowville East. Primary vote swing to both majors but a swing against the Greens which does not look like a great start for Labor. Also turnout down. If Campbell keeps getting this sort of swing then she will win as she will be too close to 50 to be caught.
6:45 Still nothing
6:25 Nothing in yet. Incidentally when I checked earlier today the Not-A-Poll on my sidebar here was averaging 51.1 to Liberal, which would be an interesting night!
5:40 Welcome to my live coverage thread for the Aston by-election. For my preview see here. I expect commentary to be a little slow before about 7:00 because of dinner but will try to keep up with early booths as they come in. There are three large prepoll booths at Scoresby, Boronia and Rowville to come in (I hope!) later in the night; Scoresby is somewhat smaller than the other one. There has been a lot of comment about low turnout and indeed the prepolls have all taken smaller numbers than at the election according to the AEC downloads: Boronio 12140 compared to 13711, Rowville 11020 compared to 13860, Rowville 6984 compared to 8987. Postals also look likely to be down given that they won't all come back (17937 issued, 16948 counted in 2022, 13260 returned so far though a small number will be rejected), and we will see what the booth turnout is like. There are 33 other booths including a few special booths.
So is the "EAV Aston PPVC" line item going to produce a very small number of votes? It seems so based on the last election?
ReplyDeleteCorrect. EAV is Electronic Assisted Voting for voters who are blind or visually impaired.
ReplyDeleteSo hopefully we won't hear the "It hasn't happened in 100 years so it can't possibly happen this time" furphy any more.
ReplyDelete