Tasmanian Snap Election? Early Elections and Majority vs Minority

Following the resignation of Sue Hickey from the Liberal Party, placing the Gutwein Government into minority, there have been strong rumours since Wednesday afternoon of a May 1 snap election.  Whether or not the election is actually called for this date or soon, I thought it would be interesting to cover some of the history.

The resignation of Sue Hickey from the Liberal Party presents no clear threat to confidence in the government.  Hickey has promised continued confidence in the government in the absence of "corruption", but notwithstanding her definition of "corruption" or whether the government can trust her, they presently have another confidence vote if needed from Madeleine Ogilvie.  So I classify this as an unforced early election.

However, the spectacle of recent days and the constant goading that losing a majority brings would be unappealling for the Government.  It seems most likely that the Government brought on Hickey's departure having already decided to go to an election ASAP, perhaps inspired by the example of the McGowan government which has been massively re-elected and which has followed a similar COVID-19 storyline to Tasmania.  There is however one major difference between Tasmania and WA: federal drag.  In the absence of COVID-19, McGowan's government would have been expected to increase its majority anyway (though not by as much as it has), while Gutwein's would have been expected to go backwards.

Early elections

An election in May would be ten months early, the next election being "due" in March 2022, though in theory the government could go as late as 14 May 2022.

Tasmania does not have fixed terms and early elections have happened fairly often.  At one stage Tasmania had five-year terms but the last government to serve more than four years was the Reece/Neilson government (1972-6).  I believe it was under Reece that terms were reduced to four years. Bill Neilson was re-elected with a majority of one seat but his successor Doug Lowe went to a very early election in 1979 after just over two and a half years.  Lowe was re-elected with an increased majority.  The history of subsequent elections is:

1982 (Holgate): forced early election (government collapsed)

1986 (Gray): 3 months early, re-elected

1989 (Gray): 9 months early, defeated

1992 (Field): semi-forced early election (government about to collapse).  The government had supported resource security legislation which the Greens were opposed to and a no-confidence motion seemed likely although the govenment had managed to adjourn the House at the end of 1991 without one happening.  

1996 (Groom): full term

1998 (Rundle): semi-forced early election (government about to collapse).  The government had agreed with the opposition to reduce the size of parliament, a move unpalatable to the Greens who were expected to bring it down in response if it continued

2002 (Bacon): 1 month early, re-elected

2006 (Lennon): 4 months early, re-elected

2010 (Bartlett): full term

2014 (Giddings): full term

2018 (Hodgman): full term

Unforced early elections that are more than six months early have been rare.  

Majority vs minority

The last government to go to an election in minority and win was Eric Reece's in 1964.  This is the only case since the number of seats in the parliament became an odd number.  Since then, all governments that went to an election in minority have been defeated (1972, 1982, 1992, 1998, 2014).  Two of the nine governments that went to an election in majority have also lost (1969, 1989).  The current Government is the first to lose its majority during a term since the Lowe/Holgate government did so in 1981 - two other governments in that time have lost their majority at an election but continued in office (1996, 2010).  I do not claim this history to be any kind of predictive precedent for this election given the COVID-19 circumstances.  

Election month

The last three governments to go to elections in May (1969, 1982, 1989) were all defeated.  However several earlier governments were re-elected in this month (1919, 1922, 1931, 1950, 1959, 1964), some more convincingly than others.  Any idea that going to an election in the colder months in Tasmania is in and of itself a bad idea was debunked by Jim Bacon's win in July 2002 in one of our more lopsided elections.

Legislative Council clash

Legislative Council elections are scheduled for May 1 in three seats (Windermere, Derwent and Mersey).  However these can and should be moved to a different Saturday in May without legislation.  Although I am not aware of any law preventing them from being held on the same day, it has never been done in the past.

I will add more notes through the day as events require.  

10:30 It's On!

Premier sighted at Government House - we should have an announcement shortly.

Update: Yes there is an election for May 1. At this stage no word about moving the Legislative Council elections so they may actually be on the same day (but we'll see).  I will be unrolling a guide page later today and electorate guides over the weekend.

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